South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 24th August)

Best Days: Sat: winds will probably spoil conditions but Northern NSW should have some leftover SE swell, best in the morning. Sun: aim for an afternoon session with a peaky mix of leftover SE swell and some NE windswell, with light winds developing. Tues thru' Fri: varying degress of strong southerly swell, mainly best suited to Northern NSW though the Thurs energy could be good for SE Qld.  

Recap: Thursday provided great waves across the coast with occasional 2ft+ sets across SE Qld’s outer points, bigger surf at exposed northern ends and up to 4-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, with light offshore winds in general. Size eased throughout the day and further into this morning, though there’s been a slight reinforcing of SE groundswell across Northern NSW throughout the day from a new swell generated below Tasmania earlier this week. However, wave heights have remain small north of the border. And winds have swung onshore in some regions as a coastal trough begins to develop.

This weekend (Aug 25 - 26)

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Today’s new SE groundswell will persist into Saturday morning across Northern NSW, but it'll remain extremely inconsistent, and size will ease throughout the day.

South facing beaches south of Byron could see some rare 3-4ft sets but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere, including much of SE Qld where we’ll be looking at half the size (or less).

Or more concern on Saturday is a slowly freshening E/NE tending NE breeze that threatens to take the sheen off surface conditions.

Although we may see lighter winds early morning, the encroaching nature of the infeed means it’s hard to have confidence in any small windows of opportunity. Yes, we could see periods of light variable winds but under inconsistent swell patterns like this, it doesn’t take a lot of strength to cause problems (about 10-12kts is the usual threshold) and there’s really nowhere that’ll handle this wind direction if and when it crops up.

Sunday looks dicey through the morning with continuing cross-onshore winds, though the trough will push offshore throughout the day, swinging a moderate to fresh northerly breeze to a light nor'wester, possibly variable. This will allow surface conditions will improve (late afternoon more so than early afternoon) - though without a synoptic offshore wind it’ll remain lumpy at best for the most part, with a slow bettering (is that a real word?) trend your best option, late in the day.

The good news is that this NE infeed will generate a short range NE swell for Sunday, and if the afternoon delivers light winds there’ll be fun lumpy surf across most open beaches in the 2-3ft range, maybe even a few bigger sets late in the day (though more likely south from the Gold Coast). If you’re lucky enough to score an isolated region of offshore winds, then you could do very well late in the day - though I suspect the chances of this happening will be patchy. 

Next week (Aug 27 onwards)

A strong front racing up from the south on Sunday is expected to merge with the trough pushing into the Tasman Sea, strengthening southerly winds adjacent to the South Coast on Monday and forming an impressive low in the Southern Tasman Sea. This system will occupy the region for a few days.

Monday should see easing NE swell and early light winds - mainly in the north - ahead of a developing S’ly change through the day, extending northwards form the Mid North Coast early, up into the Far Northern Coast by lunchtime and then SE Qld through the early afternoon. 

Wave heights will initially pick up from the south through Monday afternoon, though with gusty S/SW winds accompanying, quality will be pretty ordinary at those locations picking up the size (late 4-6ft sets at south facing beaches on the Mid North Coast). We may not see a lot of size north ffrom about Coffs or Yamba by late Monday. 

Tuesday looks much better as the low deepens further to the south, allowing winds to veer back to the W/SW and S’ly swells to settle around 4-5ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller elsewhere). This swell will probably ease through the afternoon and into Wednesday morning, with an earlier easing trend likely across the Mid North Coast. 

Across SE Qld, we're not looking at much size from this southerly swell thanks to its close origins next to the Southern NSW coast; outer points may see some 1.5ft sets if we’re lucky and exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast could rake in a few 2-3ft sets - but this swell will mostly by-pass the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. 

As the low intensifies east of Tasmania, models expect it to slingshot northwards through the western Tasman Sea, delivering a strong southerly groundswell for Thursday that could again nudge wave heights back up into the 6ft+ range at south facing beaches south of Byron - though this time a much stronger, better quality swell than earlier in the week. In fact we could see a size upgrade for this event, but it's just a little too early to have too much confidence.

This next swell looks much  better for SE Qld - the strong southerly swell direction will at least half surf size north of the border but he strong swell period should light up the outer points with inconsistent sets in the 3ft range. 

Long term guidance suggests freshening N’ly winds Friday and maybe Saturday next week ahead of the next system that’ll produce strong southerly swells from about Sunday or Monday onwards. 

Also, a slowly retreating trough through the eastern Tasman and then South Pacific should be monitored through next week. Its alignment isn’t great, nor is its eastwards track, but’ll be very broad and could supply some useful swell through the linger term period if a few characteristics swing back in our favour. 

So, there’s lots to look forward to - have a great weekend and I’ll see you Monday!