South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 22nd August)

Best Days: Most days should have good waves, except Saturday when we'll be at risk of freshening NE winds. Northern NSW will see the most size, with generally small leftovers in SE Qld.

Recap: Tuesday maintained strong surf across Northern NSW’s south swell magnets in the 6-8ft range, though we saw a more marked drop in size across the outer SE Qld points than anticipated; exposed northern ends still managed 4ft sets but the points were just a couple of feet at best, very slow and inconsistent. A new S/SE groundswell with larger swell periods (15 second) filled in today, bumping up south facing beaches south of Byron to 6-8ft+, but the longer wavelength and slightly more SE in the swell direction was more beneficial for SE Qld beaches, where the points saw inconsistent 3ft sets and exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast pushed 4-5ft (the Sunny Coast seeing smaller surf). Winds were light offshore through the morning but sea breezes have developed this afternoon.

Narrowneck on the pump this morning

Burleigh looking fun mid-morning, though slightly wobbly

Late morning sets on the Sunshine Coast

This week (Aug 23 - 24)

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We’ve got light winds and clean conditions for the next few days, though the current swell energy will ease so we can expect more manageable surf across Northern NSW. However, SE Qld beaches will become quite small and inconsistent, away from exposed northern ends. 

Thursday morning will see the most size, up around 4-5ft at exposed south facing beaches south of Byron, though smaller elsewhere due to the swell direction. Size will ease to 3-4ft throughout the day. 

Across SE Qld, don’t expect much more than a stray 2ft+ set across the outer points, easing to 1-2ft by lunchtime and becoming a little smaller into the afternoon. Exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast should see early 3ft sets ahead of the easing trend, though it’ll be a touch smaller on the Sunshine Coast. 

Late in the day, the first in a series of pulses of SE swell will begin to make landfall across the Mid North Coast, originating from a slightly unusual source. That is, an E/SE fetch that broadened south-east of New Zealand earlier this week, and then retrograded westwards under the South Island into the southern Tasman Sea.

The timing on each phase of energy from this pattern isn’t very clear as it’s not a frequently active swell window, so we need some elasticity on this energy as we move into Friday. Exposed south swell magnets south of Byron should rebuild back up into the 3-4ft+ range at some point through Friday though there will be long breaks between sets. 

Beaches not open to the south will be much smaller, and it also won’t translate to a lot of size north of the border either - just the odd 2ft+ set across the outer points, up to 3ft+ at exposed northern ends. Between sets there'll be extended periods of tiny to flat conditions.  

Friday afternoon will be at risk of a freshening E/NE breeze as a coastal trough starts to develop, though much of the day should maintain light winds and clean conditions. Just aim for a south swell magnet for the most potential as anywhere sheltered has a much smaller chance of picking up an appreciable amount of size. 

This weekend (Aug 25 - 26)

The new SE groundswell expected Friday is expected to persist through Saturday though this phase of the event will be sourced from much further away, and will therefore be much less consistent and more flukey in its coverage of surf across the region. Set waves could manage 3-4ft at times at south swell magnets south of Byron but will be extremely inconsistent, and are likely to slowly easy throughout the day. Elsewhere surf size will be much smaller.

Of more concern on Saturday will be a freshening NE infeed into the coastal trough. These winds will also generate a local NE swell though the models are quite mixed on the potential for any decent size - it’s not yet clear whether this system will shunt out of our swell window too quickly to be of benefit. 

In any case, Sunday looks much better for surf with the trough likely to push off the coast, so apart from a brief window of early northerlies, we should see winds veering NW thru’ W’ly at some stage, cleaning up the beaches with a peaky mix of SE and NE swells around the 2-3ft range, possibly some bigger sets across the Mid North Coast. The afternoon is your best window to pencil in the diary at this stage.

Let’s take a closer look on Friday. 

Next week (Aug 27 onwards)

Whilst the initial forecasts of the coastal trough for next week have moved around lot in recent days, this synoptic pattern will still probably be a source for decent surf early next week. The main difference is that we’re likely to see small background NE swells and a punchy mix of swells from the S and SE as the trough forms a low east of Tasmania. These south swells will not however favour SE Qld so we could be looking at much smaller surf north of the border. 

Looking further ahead and the long range fantasy charts have one heck of an incredible system developing way out near Fiji mid-late next week (see below). It’s way too early to have any kind of confidence, but the broad scale pattern is certainly very interesting as it’s an unusual time of the year for such a significant subtropical block. Let’s see how the models are progging it on Friday.