South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 20th August)

Best Days: Great waves expected pretty much every day this week; large across Northern NSW though a lot smaller in SE Qld. Plenty of swell over the weekend though we'll be at risk of onshore winds. 

Recap: Saturday delivered super fun waves across Northern NSW with 4ft of south swell at exposed beaches, but much smaller surf elsewhere. Not much energy made it north of the border, due to the direction. This swell eased rapidly by Sunday morning, but a short range S’ly swell built into the afternoon as SE gales extended off the Southern NSW coast, with south facing beaches in Northern NSW reaching 3ft+ late afternoon (again, not much surf reaching SE Qld). Today has seen a very large mix of south swells and windy southerly breezes, with south facing beaches south of Byron pushing north of 8ft at times. Across SE Qld, wave heights were tiny to begin with but the outer Gold Coast points saw good albeint very inconsistent 3ft surf through the lunchtime period, though freshening SE winds into the afternoon spoilt conditions at all but the most sheltered breaks which were rather small. Exposed SE Qld beaches have seen much bigger surf though.

Late morning lines at D’Bah as the south swell started to kick in (see the bloke in the pit bottom left!)

Lovely lunchtime lines at Burleigh

Bigger sets at D’Bah early afternoon

This week (Aug 21 - 24)

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There’s been a few changes in the model runs over the last few days. And whilst the last three days have played out as expected, we’ve got a slight downgrade in the size outlook for the next few days - and a delay in the timing of new energy too. But there'll be quality options at many coasts.

The current synoptic setup is very similar to what Friday’s models estimated, except the secondary fetch around the Tasman Low - responsible for tomorrow's pulse - is now positioned a little further to the east, and aimed a little further clockwise, outside of our swell window.

This means we’ll see mainly glancing S/SE swell energy from later Tuesday into Wednesday, though as this fetch will be working on the pre-existing active sea state, I still think we’re going to see some strong surf at times (large through Northern NSW).

Winds will tending light offshore in the mornigs, in fact we may even see an afternoon sea breeze from the north-east on Tuesday. The offshore breeze will perk up a little more across southern coasts on Wednesday as a front clips the region, but by and large it’ll be clean everywhere again.

As for size, Tuesday morning will be between pulses, with easing energy from today likely to level out around 6ft+ at most south facing beaches south of Byron, perhaps some bigger waves if we’re lucky. But it’ll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south.

Throughout SE Qld, we’ll see similarly inconsistent S’ly swells on Tuesday as per today, in fact a slight easing is likely as the day progresses. Expect occasional 3ft sets at outer points (with not much between waves) though exposed northern ends and south facing beaches could see another foot or two. If anything, expect a little less size on the Sunny Coast compared ot the Gold Coast.

A renewal of S/SE swell from the aforementioned secondary fetch inthe southern Tasman is expected Tuesday afternoon (Mid North Coast) extending to remaining coasts by Wednesday morning. South swell magnets south of Byron should see occasional 6-8ft bombs (easing during the day) and for my money, this is the pick of the week for SE Qld with very good, albeit inconsistent 3ft+ sets across the outer points (so, a little bigger than today). With lighter winds, you’ll be able to pick up 4-5ft sets at exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast (and a lesser degree the Sunny Coast) if you’re keen to wear a few on the head.

Another front crossing Tasmania on Tuesday will be responsible for a renewal of short range S’ly swell on Wednesday afternoon across the Mid North Coast, though it’ll be smaller than the pre-existing S/SE swell. This will maintain strong though easing S’ly swells through Thursday morning around 4-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, with (as per usual) much smaller surf elsewhere. 

However, the direction won’t favour SE Qld as well, and we’ll see a more marked drop into Thursday with a combo of easing S/SE and new S’ly swell offering 2ft+ sets across the outer points, bigger near 3-4ft at exposed northern ends. Light winds and sea breezes are on the cards once again for all coasts. Size will ease into the afternoon too.

As for Friday, all swell sources will trend down but we’ll see a fresh pulse of SE groundswell fill in throughout the day, originating from an unusual source - a broadening E/SE fetch from the south-east of New Zealand that’s expected to retrograde westwards, under the South Island into the southern Tasman Sea.

This should rebuild surf size from 2-3ft early, up to 3-4ft at south facing beaches south of Byron into the afternoon (ahead of a peak on Saturday). I don’t like the orientation of this system relative to SE Qld but we should see small waves here to finish the working week. 

The only risk on Friday is a broadening trough across the inland states that could deliver a late onshore breeze. But we won’t have much confidence on that for a few more days.

This weekend (Aug 25 - 26)

Friday’s SE groundswell - of which the models just don't see the same size that I do - is expected to hold into Saturday morning across Northern NSW, before easing slightly during the day. Inconsistent sets should maintain 3-4ft at exposed locations south from Byron. Smaller surf is likely in SE Qld, probably a little over half the size of Northern NSW.

However, we’re at risk of poor conditions everywhere as a deepening coastal trough strengthens NE winds through our immediate swell window. They’ll generate some short range energy - and it could become sizeable throughout the weekend as this occurs - but the big concern right now is that local conditions will become very bumpy.

Model guidance is presently intensifying this trough into Sunday and the associated NE fetch on its south-eastern flank, which suggests some punchy NE swell that could reach 4-6ft at some exposed spots at some point over the weekend. 

However it’s early days just yet, so don’t book anything into the diary. Local winds are really tricky under these synoptic scenarios, and whilst it’s likely we’ll see a few windows of opportunity, it’s hard to ascertain exactly where they’ll be located.

Next week (Aug 27 onwards)

This coastal trough looks like being a dominant feature for a few days - at least locally to begin with, but also possibly extending further upstream towards the tropics. All of which is pointing to an extended period of swell activity (some of it possibly quite sizeable) out of the NE quadrant - though it may very well be better focused towards Southern NSW (see below). More on this in Wednesday’s update.