South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 15th August)

Best Days: Thurs: clean conditions with an extremely inconsistent E'ly swell, plus small S'ly swell in Northern NSW. Fri/Sat: decent S'ly swell in Northern NSW, light winds. Only small in SE Qld. Mon: building S'ly swell with a developing gusty S'ly change, best suited to outer SE Qld points late in the day. Tues/Wed: strong S/SE swell with light winds. Thurs/Fri: fun S'ly swell in the Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld. 

Recap: There’s been a fun mix of small east swell and solid south swell across Northern NSW for the last few days, up to 3-5ft at south swell magnets south of Byron on Tuesday, easing today, though north of the border only the east swell’s been getting in (very inconsistent 2ft+ sets). Winds have been up from the north at times too which has created quality issues. The leading edge of a long period E’ly swell appears to have made landfall this afternoon with peak swell periods jumping to 15 seconds.

This week (Aug 16 - 17)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

Southerly swell is easing across Southern NSW today and this trend will play out into Northern NSW throughout Thursday. Only south swell magnets south of Byron will pick up any energy and I’m really not expecting much more than a stray 2ft, maybe 2-3ft set every so often. SE Qld won’t see much swell from this region at all.

The big question mark for Thursday is the long range east swell that’s been discussed in this notes for the last week or two.

So far, the leading edge has arrived as per model guidance, but I am still greatly concerned that the enormous travel distance between the swell source - well south of Tahiti last week - will create lengthy periods of tiny waves. And with very little south swell getting in north of the border, these flat spells will be very noticeable throughout SE Qld. 

Model guidance is (in my opinion) low-balling this swell at 0.5m at 12 seconds - the leading edge has already come in three to four seconds higher at the buoys than estimated, though it’s hard to discern how much windswell contamination is in the mix too. 

Anyway, at the present time there’s still no evidence to suggest deviating away from the forecast that I’ve held steady with for the last week, which is: inconsistent 2-3ft sets with very infrequent bigger bombs, of which these larger waves could very well be much bigger than the usual rogue set size loading. But, expect prolonged spells of tiny conditions between the sets. This swell has come from an unusually long distance away and simply isn’t a reliable source (read: don’t pack the car for a road trip).

Conditions will be nice and clean with light offshore winds and possible afternoon sea breezes. 

This east swell will slowly ease through Friday, but we’ll see building southerly swells across Northern NSW, generated by westerly gales exiting eastern Bass Strait later today. 

The fetch won’t swing south of west until later Thursday - meaning we won’t see a proper pulse of south swell until about lunchtime Friday (a little earlier across the Mid North Coast, a little later across the Far North Coast) - but south facing beaches south of Byron should see an afternoon push into the 3-4ft+ range at south swell magnets south of Byron. 

Expect smaller surf elsewhere, and also through the early part of the day. Light winds are expected along with clean conditions.

This weekend (Aug 18 - 19)

The parent low to the front generating our late Thurs/Fri swell will be positioned well S/SE of Tasmania and it’ll generate some long period southerly swell for Saturday in Northern NSW.

Model guidance has weakened the structure of this system a little since Monday's notes were prepared, but with continuing light variable winds we should see clean conditions, and south swell magnets south of Byron should rake in occasional 3-4ft+ sets. 

Expect much smaller surf at remaining beaches, including much of SE Qld. Exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast, and to a lesser degree the Sunshine Coast, may see occasional 2ft+ sets, but there won’t be much size elsewhere. There’ll be some small, very inconsistent E’ly swell in the mix too but it’s not worth working around.

Sunday will see easing southerly swells from Saturday, but yet another vigorous front pushing across the SE corner of the country overnight Saturday will generate building short range S’ly swells through Sunday, mainly the afternoon. This has the potential to generate 3-4ft surf at south swell magnets south of Byron by the end of the day, though winds will be gusty SW was times so these locations will be wind affected. 

Elsewhere it’ll likely be too small to capitalise on, and there won’t be much surf in SE Qld either, just some small lines at exposed northern ends. Let’s reevaluate on Friday. 

Next week (Aug 20 onwards)

We've got stacks of south swell for next week, with a series of vigorous fronts tracking a long ways north through the Tasman Sea, and an embedded Tasman Low turbo-boosting proceedings around Tuesday morning. 

Early W/SW winds on Monday are expected to tend S’ly at strength during the day so only protected points will be worthwhile once the swell kicks in after lunch. Lighter winds are expected from Tuesday onwards though exposed locations may see some lineup wobble thanks to Monday’s conditions. 

Wave heights should increase from 4-6ft to 6-8ft at south facing beaches (south of Byron) through Monday, however Tuesday afternoon’s kick - if model guidance stays true - could punch this another couple of feet higher thanks to the increased swell periods, associated with the stronger core winds around the embedded Tasman Low (see below). The alignment of this low isn't optimal but the strength of the winds, acting upon an already active sea state should ensure some very strong surf across the entire East Coast.

That being said, the southerly swell direction will shave a lot of size off in SE Qld, at least 50% - so expect small surf early Monday building to 3ft+ across the outer points Monday afternoon, with Tuesday more on track for a stronger 3-5ft S/SE swell across the outer points (much bigger at exposed northern ends, though difficult with the size and sweep). Wednesday will see wave heights slowly easing, though initially it’ll still be pretty strong and sizeable early morning with great waves continuing across all of the regional points. 

Tuesday and Wednesday are therefore the pick of the forecast period at this stage with good winds and plenty of strong south swell. Well worth booking into the diary.

Looking further ahead, and a series of long period southerly swells from strong front/low combos tracking through the Southern Ocean below Tasmania early next week will provide excellent surf from Wednesday onwards, up to 3-5ft at south swell magnets south of Byron Bay. 

More on this in Friday’s update.