South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 6th August)

Best Days: Wed thru' Fri: building E'ly swell with generally good winds. Thurs/Fri: small south swell in Northern NSW. Sun: small peaky mix of swells with good winds. Next Wed/Thurs: long range E'ly swell.

Recap: The weekend offered a few curveballs. Saturday was tiny in SE Qld, and a small southerly swell didn’t offer much in Northern NSW. Sunday saw a minor pulse of the south swell across Northern NSW, and a small long range E'ly swell discussed throughout last week’s notes - but largely dismissed on Friday - perked up across some open beaches in Northern NSW and SE Qld on Sunday afternoon, offering peaky waves around 2ft with light winds on offer. These swells eased slightly into today but the main problem has been strengthening N’ly winds, which have also whipped up a small, poor quality windswell for exposed north-facing beaches. 

This week (Aug 7 - 10)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

Despite the small pulse of east swell seen yesterday, I don’t think there’s much on the cards for the next few days. Model guidance certainly doesn’t paint much of a picture and the synoptic late last week weren’t particularly strong, nor were the ASCAT passes.

However, winds will swing W’ly on Tuesday so the open beaches will be clean and I can’t rule out the odd stray set out of the east across wide open beaches. It’s not worth rescheduling your diary around though.

Wednesday is where things tart to get a little more interesting.

We’ll probably start off the day with minor residual energy, but throughout the day a (relatively) long period E’ly swell will nose into the coast, originating from a recent deepening of the subtropical low that’s positioned NE of New Zealand. In fact, this region is priming itself for an extended run of long range swell out of the eastern quadrant and we’ve got a lot of interesting surf potential due over the coming week and a half.

Anyway, we’re looking at a slow upwards trend from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday and into Friday where we’re probably looking at a peak around 3-4ft across exposed coasts, maybe the odd bigger wave at reliable swell magnets if we're lucky. Set waves won’t be very consistent, however the good news for SE Qld surfers is that local winds look to be relatively light, tending SE to SE if anything on Thursday as a weak ridge of high pressure develops over the region. Light variable winds and sea breezes are expected Wednesday and Friday.

Also in the water across Northern NSW during the second half of this week will be two south swells, originating from vigorous frontal passages exiting eastern Bass Strait. 

The first is due into the Mid North Coast later Wednesday and remaining Northern NSW beaches (south of Byron) on Thursday, with 2-3ft+ sets at exposed locations. The second swell probably won’t reach the Mid North Coast until overnight Thursday, before providing fun waves through Friday. 

Local conditions are at first of moderate to fresh SW tending S’ly winds Thursday morning, but it’s also worth considering the added benefit of the concurrent swell trains - they’ll provide some nice peaky options across the wide open beaches. Friday morning looks like the pick of the week at this stage. Put it into the diary!

This weekend (Aug 11 - 12)

The weekend looks like it’ll be easily characterised by poor conditions Saturday under a strengthening N’ly breeze, ahead of a clean round of beachbreaks on Sunday as winds veer NW then SW.

Friday’s south swell will ease through Saturday but the E’ly swell should maintain size early, before easing into the afternoon. Unfortunately, we’ll see slightly smaller though still fun E’ly swells for Sunday and there’ll some peaky NE windswell in the mix south of the Gold Coast, and a late building S’ly swell in Northern NSW too.

Either way, Sunday is the pick of the weekend - let’s fine tune the specifics on Wednesday.

Next week (Aug 13 onwards)

Early next week has a few small swell sources on the cards, including persistent long range E’ly swell from the same source as the weekend's energy. 

However, all of my attention is currently focused on the long range charts of the South Pacific. The source of this week’s upcoming E’ly swell will precede a larger, more sustained development even further to the east (below Tahiti), larger in size and strength but also with a greater travel distance (see chart below). 

This is expected to create a long period E’ly swell that’ll push through sometime around Wednesday (give or take), providing at least two days of strong swell for our region that should kick up open beaches into the 4-5ft range at times. It's too early to hone in local winds though, and this will obviously dictate your local surfing potential.

Otherwise, the broader upper level pattern closer to home is suggesting a continuation of small to moderate, flukey south swells across Northern NSW the foreseeable future.

Let’s take another pass at all of this on Wednesday.