Extended period of mediocrity ahead
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd August)
Best Days: Wed: fun south swell in Northern NSW with good winds. Not much in SE Qld. Smaller south swell with light winds into Thurs.
Recap: Persistent south swell provided fun waves across Northern NSW on Thursday, before easing today. It’s been tiny in SE Qld. Winds are now up from the north.
This weekend (Aug 4 - 5)
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
There ain't much happening this weekend in the surf department.
A gusty westerly change will cross Southern NSW overnight, but winds will remain NW across Northern NSW and SE Qld, veering SW briefly across the Mid North Coast Saturday afternoon. Early light winds Sunday morning will then pick up from the north into the afternoon.
As for surf, we’re not expecting much but there’ll be some small waves at exposed beaches in Northern NSW. A small pulse of southerly swell should persist across south facing beaches, originating from the tail end of the fetch that generated yesterday’s energy. It won’t be very big nor very consistent with just occasional 1-2ft waves at south swell magnets south of Byron.
Today’s local N’ly fetch will also generate some small windwaves for Saturday morning , but again, there won’t be much size or strength on offer. Both of these swell sources will ease into the afternoon and then further into Sunday.
As for the minor E’ly swell source mention in Wednesday’s note: I’m doubtful we’ll see much energy from this source either. It is simply too small and too far away to provide any meaningful increase in surf across our region.
Next week (Aug 6 onwards)
We’ve got an active phase of the Long Wave Trough on approach. Unfortunately, it’s expected to peak too far to the west, which will steer Southern Ocean swell generating systems away from our southern swell window.
The only hope for a rideable wave out of the south will originate from gale force W’ly winds exiting eastern Bass Strait on Tuesday. This should generate a brief pulse of 2-3ft S’ly swell for south facing beaches south of Byron on Wednesday. A smaller, briefer front pushing through eastern Bass Strait Wednesday should renew slightly smaller south swell for Thursday across Northern NSW. SE Qld won't see much energy from this source, though exposed northern ends may pick up a few small stray sets if we're lucky.
Prior to this we’ll see small N’ly windswells through Monday though with accompanying gusty N’ly tending NW winds (even W’ly in the Far South late afternoon). Set waves may reach 1-2ft at exposed spots but it’s not worth getting excited about. This windswell will be all gone by Tuesday under a fresh offshore breeze.
Elsewhere, and the broad trough/low developing to the N/NE of New Zealand still looks impressive on single synoptic snapshots, but the models have pushed this system even further to the east - away from the Australian mainland - and have tucked it incrementally further south inside the NZ swell shadow (see below).
As a result, we’re still looking at an extended run of small, inconsistent long range E’ly swell, but the first half of next week looks marginal in the size department. We’re likely to see a more prominent increase from about Thursday onwards, with Friday thru’ the following Monday (or more) on target for very intermittent but otherwise workable surf up to 2-3ft at reliable swell magnets. It's certainly not worth rescheduling your diary around, but in the absence of any other swell events, this distant source may just keep the open beaches from becoming totally flat.
Have a great weekend, see you Monday!
Comments
What the actual heck is going on!!
adsi..you should be a forecaster..........nothings going on.
Consistent mediocrity
Just when you thought it couldn't be worse than last winter...
It's more likely the case that current conditions are more indiciative of the true average, and 'better' winters in years gone by have been positive aberations.
thermalben is dead.
Long live BrutalBen.
Yeah, nah.
I will have to start chantting positive affirmations like surf nazis must die. Last spring was OK I recall
That Negitve SAM is to blame puts the East Coast in the doldrums it seems. Extrem storms in the Indian Ocean not much here.
How can it be so shit in the winter. Luckily I quit my shit job and booked an air Asia to Medan...
Paywall goes up and the surf goes flat.
That can 't be a coincidence.
Life is meaningless without waves my soul needs hydrating listening to hawaii five O theme song is the only thing that helps me cope
As for whether this winter is indicative of normal, and winters with more surf are an aberration.....without evidence that is just a supposition, just "noise."
At least as far as the last 20 years go, this winter has been abnormally quiet and calm.
And even more weirdly it followed a very calm autumn.
Not a single significant ECL for the autumn or winter.
That is unusual.
Pretty dismal in Northern NSW.
Even worse in SE Qld.
Looks like the weekend's small south swell is pulsing across the Coffs region. No major size but some fun looking two footers.
You know when you’ve left home and it’s pumping, you said no to the normal Indian Ocean surf trip and you agreed to the east coast in a van with your family............,.and it’s a fucking lake!! Only two more weeks till it’s back to the Southern Ocean. Not sure how many beers though
stay strong and don't degrade yourself by paddling out in the lake.
I should add that northern NSW is a magic place(although I don’t know how the average family can afford a house here) and we are having a great time but man-o-man it would be nice to score somthing that has even a little push.
not going to happen soggy dog.
get a mal and splash around in the baby food with the kids. some epic sand banks around that make 1ft surf fun.
It has actually picked up here in QLD managed a few totally sick head dips on my soft board. thanks thermalben. seems to be 2ft out of the east with asoutherly sweep
Yeah same on the Tweed. Not sure if it’s the small southerly pulse that went through Coffs earlier, or the distant east swell I was mentioning earlier in the week but largely dismissed on Friday. Sets are waist to chest high on the Tweed but it’s too full for the outer banks and too shallow for the shories. Argh!
Biggest it's been for the last 2 weeks on the SC this morning ... only waist high but conditions were pristine
There was still a little bit this morning, but the northerly was into it from dawn... Just can't get a break on the SC at the moment
Just got out of the water. I reckon it’s the east swell I discussed all week then wrote off on Friday. Argh!
Inconsistent, slow and fat but some occasionally fun two footers.
Was definitely out of the east, not south.
See the Gallows pics above (from earlier in the morning)? That was def south swell - a small pulse of which was also expected over the weekend - and not east.
But yeah, the late Sunday session I had was def east, also confirmed by my obs across a broad sweep of the Tweed Coast mid-arvo.
So, I reckon we had both flukey swell sources contribute over the weekend.
From what I saw throughout the day, Lennox was pulling in more than Ballina.
South swell didn't register as much as Coffs by the look up here and it's usually pretty similar in my experience.
Not sure what’s going on! Had a fun body surf yesterday with magic conditions near Brunswick yesterday then headed south, just north of Coffs. Last night there was a bit of swell when we arrived and with a bit of a bump on the forecast I thought finally, but no it’s even smaller this morning. Crazy
very flukey weak signals.
at least some surf able baby food yesterday
Been the worst year for surf since Adam was a boy.
And the crowds have been off the hook.\
Now that are old friends are back I wonder if crowds will cool down. `can't be long until someone gets bumped or worse.
DPI Fisheries advise: tagged white shark detected by Lennox Point, Lennox Head receiver at 10:43:00 AM (AEST) on 6-Aug-2018
DPI advise 2.51m White Shark tagged and released from SMART drumline at Airforce Beach, Evans Head at 09:34 am on 6 Aug 2018.
DPI Fisheries advise: tagged white shark detected by Sharpes Beach, Ballina receiver at 07:34:00 AM (AEST) on 6-Aug-2018
DPI Fisheries advise: tagged white shark detected by Lighthouse Beach, Ballina receiver at 03:47:00 AM (AEST) on 6-Aug-2018
DPI advise 2.36 White Shark tagged and released from SMART drumline at SOUTH BALLINA, Ballina at 12:22 pm on 5 Aug 2018.
DPI aerial report: 2.5m White Shark at TYARAGAH, Byron at 10:00 am on 5 Aug 2018. No http://Swimmers.No Surfers.
DPI advise 1.96m White Shark tagged and released from SMART drumline at LIGHTHOUSE, Ballina at 03:18 pm on 4 Aug 2018.
DPI advise 2.58m White Shark tagged and released from SMART drumline at SHARPS, East Ballina at 02:25 pm on 4 Aug 2018.
DPI advise 1.91m White Shark tagged and released from SMART drumline at SHARPS, East Ballina at 09:32 am on 4 Aug 2018.
DPI advise 2.62m White Shark tagged and released from SMART drumline at Airforce Beach, Evans Head at 11:55 am on 3 Aug 2018.
DPI advise 2.11 White Shark tagged and released from SMART drumline at Main Beach, Evans Head at 11:39 am on 3 Aug 2018.
Nice little flurry of activity to set off a flat spell.
Cue scientists telling us numbers of white sharks are declining and attacks are because more people using the water.
Wonder who gave birth to all these juv/sub-adults then`? Aliens?
This one over 10ft.
Submarine.
DPI advise 3.24m White Shark tagged and released from SMART drumline at SOUTH BALLINA, Ballina at 10:42 am on 31 Jul 2018.
Mid morning. Feet up ladies and gents.
When you are surfing s. wall solo and you realise that little orange buoy just out the back is the drumline. there's probably an emoji for that feeling.
That's a lot of tag and release in a short space of time...8 new whites tagged, and at least one back for a visit over 5 days.
Glad I moved south.
Looks like a fair bit of activity down that way too Crg.
but yeah, the Evans-Byron stretch is a real hot spot at the moment.
Had a poke around today and found some fun ones for all three of us, south side of a headland out of the wind. Not near any of the big name spots with no one else around.
On a positive note, negative SAM means snow down south as the snow falls and the charts are revealing
And the creeks have been nice for a look / snorkel...in fact there's been bigger waves in my local creek when a couple of my fat mates have done some bridge jumps
Flat as a shit carters hat otherwise