South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 1st August)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri/Sat: small south swell south of Byron, though not very big nor very consistent, and with tricky winds Friday. Fri thru' Tues: chance for a few small lines out of the east (low confidence). Wed onwards: building E'ly swell. 

Recap: Long period southerly swell has provided inconsistent but fun 2-3ft surf to south facing beaches over the last few days. A few bigger sets were reported at scattered locations, however SE Qld generally dipped out in the size department as per usual. 

This week (Aug 2 - 3)

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The final low/front this current series pushed through eastern Bass Strait this morning. Although it’s not initially very well aligned for our coast, a small secondary cut-off low to the south will merge with the main low this afternoon, and push NE through the Tasman Sea. It’s still not in an ideal region for swell generation but it will maintain small southerly swells for Northern NSW through the next few days. 

This swell is expected to push through the Mid North Coast on Thursday morning, reaching the Far North Coast in the afternoon, and at its peak should supply inconsistent sets between 2ft and almost 3ft at reliable south swell magnets south of Byron (expect smaller surf in the Far North prior to its arrival). Elsewhere, wave heights will be very small, including SE Qld which won’t pick up this south swell very well (just a few small stray sets at exposed northern ends if you’re lucky).

Similarly workable south swell is expected on Friday (south of Byron) from the same broad swell source, but we’ll concurrently be at the mercy of freshening northerly winds as a high pressure system off the coast ridges up against an approaching front from the west. These winds will strongest across the Mid North Coast, however we should see a period of early light NW offshores. Lighter winds are likely all day in the Far North and SE Qld regions. 

Also worth keeping an eye out for on Friday: a small subtropical low developed north of New Zealand today, performing much better than Monday’s model guidance indicated (which suggested a slowly developing trough through the second half of this week). 

However, it’s tracking to the east, away from our swell window and its short fetch length will probably surpress any swell potential. But, it’s sitting in a nice part of our swell window and in the absence of any other swell sources (in SE Qld), we may see some small intermittent energy out of the E/NE. I’m not expecting much size (and the models have just 0.2m at 10.5 seconds) but it’s worth highlighting as a possible small sneaky swell source for reliable swell magnets that won’t otherwise pick up the small flukey south swell. 

This weekend (Aug 4 - 5)

The final round of small southerly swell from the developing fetch(es) in the lower Tasman Sea on Thursday will push through for Saturday, across Northern NSW. Again, I’m not expecting a lot of size, barely an inconsistent 2ft+ across south facing breaches south of Byron Bay.

Otherwise, the aforementioned flukey E’ly swell source from the low north of New Zealand may provide small, intermittent sets across exposed beaches all weekend. Again, model guidance doesn’t really like this system but the fetch looks OK on paper and we might see the odd two foot set on the more favourable parts of the tide. 

As for winds, in general we’re looking at clean conditions with light winds and afternoon sea breezes. Freshening northerlies are likely later Sunday but with minor swell potential it’s not worth worrying too much about. 

Next week (Aug 6 onwards)

Most of next week will be characterised by NW thru' SW winds winds as a series of cold fronts ride high through the Bight.

This usually results in little south swell, thanks to the forecast position of the Long Wave Trough which anticipates its downward flank will be over eastern Australia, steering swell generating activity away from our south swell window. However, small flukey south swells originating from Bass Strait can’t be ruled out for Northern NSW - I just can’t see anything to aim for at the moment.

The subtropical low north of New Zealand over the coming days is expected to merge with the small front/low in the Tasman Sea sometime this weekend, and will form an impressive system immediately E/NE of New Zealand’s North Island.

However, the evolution of this system has been shifted since Monday’s model runs, with a more scattered, less consolidated development (see chart below) - and thus its swell potential is significantly reduced. However, it looks like we may end up seeing an anchored synoptic pattern resulting in a very slow moving system that should ensure a long-lived easterly swell event. 

At this stage the first few days of next week are expected to remain on the small side, but from about Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday onwards we should start to see a broad upwards trend that still has the potential to eventually reach 3-4ft+ at reliable swell magnets in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW.

But, it’s early days just yet - don’t go booking in any flexi-time at the moment. I’ll have a lot more confidence in the specifics in Friday’s update.