South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 27th July)

Best Days: Tues thru' Fri: plenty of fun south swell in Northern NSW, generally good winds. Tiny in SE Qld away from a handful of south swell magnets. 

Recap: Small southerly swells have graced south swell magnets south of Byron for the last few days. Thursday was clean with mainly light winds but we’ve seen freshening northerlies today. 

Still some small S'ly lines at Coffs this afternoon.

This weekend (July 28 - 29)

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I’m all out of interesting adjectives. Let’s cut to the chase: SE Qld won’t see any worthwhile surf this weekend.

Northern NSW may pick up small levels of intermittent, flukey south swell both days originating from the trailing fronts in this week's procession below Tasmania, though I’m not expecting much size.

If anything, expect marginally smaller waves than today with even less frequency - just a foot or two at reliable south swell magnets south of Byron, tiny at southern ends, and long breaks between waves. 

Light winds early Saturday will freshen from the north into the afternoon and Sunday will see strengthening N’ly tending NW winds, with an outside chance for a small N’ly windswell at exposed north-facing locations south from the Gold Coast. 

But really, it won’t be worth your time and effort. Earn some brownie points instead, for the next time the charts light up and you’ve gotta dash down (or up) the coast. 

Next week (July 30 onwards)

A vigorous low and front will enter the lower Tasman Sea early Monday morning, and this will be the source of new south swell for the following days. We’ll see building southerly swell from two seperate fetches: a brief storm-force W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait, and a gale force S/SW fetch rounding the Tasmanian corner.

The first fetch will deliver a building south swell that’ll just reach the Lower Mid North Coast late Monday, with both south swells then simultaneously providing pulse, intermittent surf into Tuesday, before easing Wednesday.

Although each fetch is of a different strength and position within the swell window, their different alignments will probably result in a similar size range across south facing beaches. The second, more southern fetch would ordinarily deliver a considerable amount more size, however I’m keeping my expectations tempered because the low is expected to slide quickly through the swell window, which reduces size potential. 

Monday’s late arrival down south is hard to have confidence in its timing (I'll update in the notes on Monday as observations from Southern NSW come to hand), but Tuesday should reach somewhere in the 3-4ft, maybe 3-5ft range at south swell magnets south of Byron, though it'll be much smaller at beaches not completely open to the south. 

If anything, we will probably see a lag on the upper end of this size range in the Far North early Tuesday. I’m also not expecting much energy north of the border either, but exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast (and to a lesser degree the Sunshine Coast) may pick up occasional 2ft+ sets on Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere it’ll be tiny. 

Wednesday will then see easing S’ly swell, though another frontal passage across Tasmanian longitudes mid-week will rebuild S’ly swells for Thursday, that should reach 3-4ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. Once again, expect a similar spread of size at remaining beaches and everywhere north of the border as per Tuesday. Thursday’s swell will ease into Friday. 

Conditions look great all week for the Northern NSW beaches with mainly light winds, possibly N’ly at times but at least variable through the mornings and probably without much strength at all until Friday when pre-frontal northerlies may create some problems. As such, dial into a south swell magnet and you’ll have options all week of varying size and quality. 

Looking further ahead, and a small cut-off polar low well south of the Tasman Sea on Tuesday and Wednesday will contribute a small south swell to finish the working week and into the weekend. Additionally, the low responsible for Thursday’s south swell may linger in the Lower Tasman Sea for a few days, potentially offering a SE swell for next weekend. Let’s see how the models are stacking up on Monday, eh?

Have a great weekend!