South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 25th July)

Best Days: Thurs: lucky if we'll see some small SE leftovers at Northern NSW south swell magnets. Tues: brief S'ly swell in Northern NSW, easing Wed, rebuilding Thurs.

Recap: Small easing southerly swells in Northern NSW on Tuesday, with very little on offer in SE Qld. The tiny trend continued north of the border this morning, but a new SE swell filled across Northern NSW offering clean 2-3ft sets at times today, clean with light winds. 

Early SE lines at Coffs Harbour

Late lines of SE swell on the Tweed Coast

This week (July 26 - 27)

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The current SE swell is easing across Southern NSW so we can expect a similar trend throughout Northern NSW on Thursday.

Exposed northern ends south of Byron may pick up a few stray 2ft+ sets early morning if we’re lucky but I’m not expecting a great deal of action, and it’ll be tiny elsewhere, including all SE Qld coasts (perhaps some small waves at the exposed northern end of the Gold Coast). Conditions will however be clean with mainly light winds. 

During the day, we’ll see very small, inconsistent levels of southerly swell glance the Northern NSW coast that'll hold through Friday, generated by a poorly aligned series of fronts passing just to the south of Tasmania from now through the coming four days. 

It’s much more zonal (west-east) in its alignment than previous frontal passages, which reduced the size potential and also increases the likely size variability across the coast. In short: only reliable south swell magnets south of Byron will pick up any rideable energy, everywhere else will be tiny to flat, including SE Qld. 

Winds may pick up from the north across some coasts though no great strength is expected at this stage. 

This weekend (July 28 - 29)

The models have all but evaporated a modeled local northerly flow adjacent the coast late Friday, that was meant to kick up a small windswell for Saturday. 

As such, with very little activity in any of our swell windows throughout the coming days, we’re looking at a tiny weekend in the surf department. 

Winds will slowly freshen from the north on Saturday, becoming stronger into Sunday as it clocks more to the N/NW but we won’t see any great surf. Small northerly wind waves are possible late afternoon in Northern NSW but it’s not worth working around.

Next week (July 30 onwards)

A deep low and cold front will cross the NSW coast overnight Sunday and into Monday. Initially, winds will be W/SW across our region but W/NW across Southern NSW (i.e. as you head towards our southern swell window) but once the low tracks into the Tasman Sea during Monday, we’ll see a brief period of gale to storm force W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait. This will be poorly aligned within our swell window, but the sheer strength of the fetch is impressive.

However, this system is expected to pass quickly to the east which will result in a brief pulse of south swell across Northern NSW at best.

Monday is unlikely to see anything more than a few small, inconsistent sets spreading back into exposed spots across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, originating from the westerly fetch pushing off the mainland. It’s an unusual swell source that somewhat defies logic, but it has produced waves in the past and can’t be ruled out as a region of swell generation. I’m mentioning it here for scientific interest only, and not for surf scheduling.

At this stage Tuesday is our best day to slot into the diary, with a flush of south swell exclusive to south swell magnets south of Byron, that could produce some 3-4ft sets at a handful of reliable locations though it’s very likely that most locations will dip out quite a bit, if not completely. Protected locations will be very small, and there won't be much, if anything happening in SE Qld. 

Small trailing S’ly swell is then expected through Wednesday. Winds will be offshore both days so conditions will be clean. SE Qld beaches will remain tiny.

Another front and low will push into the Tasman Sea mid-week, generating a small south swell for Thursday though it looks like a 60% version of our Tuesday swell at this stage. As such it's not worth getting too excited about.

Elsewhere, all of our other swell windows are either inactive or have small systems on their peripheries that won’t contribute enough energy to warrant further investigation.

Let’s hope Friday has some more promise on the long term outlook!