South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 16th July)

Best Days: Tues: small leftover south swell in Northern NSW. Chance for a small flukey east swell on the Lower Mid North Coast. Thurs: fun though brief pulse of south swell, south of Byron. Sat/Sun: strong, easing S'ly swell in Northern NSW with good winds. Not much in SE Qld away from south swell magnets/exposed northern ends. 

Recap: Saturday delivered a fun mix of small peaky E’ly swell and a building S’ly swell that reached impressive proportions late afternoon south of Byron Bay, with solid 6ft+ sets at swell magnets, reaching 3-5ft across the Tweed Coast though considerably smaller across SE Qld beaches due to the flukey south swell direction. Size eased from the south through Sunday but retained small inconsistent lines out of the east, across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. This trend has persisted today, with small E’ly swells in the north and a further reduction in south swell across Northern NSW. All days have seen generally light variable winds and clean conditions.

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This week (July 17 - 20)

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There’s still around three feet of leftover southerly swell across Southern NSW this afternoon, so we can look forward to a similar round of energy across Northern NSW on Tuesday morning.

However, the trend will be on the way down so expect smaller surf as the day wears on. As per usual, the upper end of this size range will be found at south swell magnets south of Byron, with smaller waves elsewhere. 

The rest of the week looks a little patchy. 

Although we’ve had some activity in our far eastern swell window over the last few days (northern extent of a broad Tasman trough, that also spawned the low that gave us all of this recent south swell), the fetch hasn’t been very well aligned, and it’s moving eastwards, away from us. Throw in the long travel distance and it’s unlikely we’ll see much size from this region over the coming week. 

Elsewhere, and last week I discussed a flukey E’ly swell that may impact the Lower Mid North Coast from late today through Tuesday, that was expected to be largest across the Far Southern NSW Coast (and smaller as you track north, ie into the Hunter, Mid North Coast and then Northern NSW regions). 

We’ve got a couple of methods of assessing this swell (once it makes landfall) via surfcams, manual observations and buoy data. Unfortunately, all three lack coverage where it matters most for this particular event - in the Far South - and the best detection tool (the Eden buoy) is offline at the moment. We don’t have much coverage in Eastern Tasmania either (where the observations could be interpolated further north) so we’re essentially flying blind on this one.

Model data didn’t really have the leading edge due into the coast until around dinner time tonight, so the current lack of energy doesn’t bother me. 

However, as mentioned on Friday, not only is the swell source flukey - the fetch was south of Sydney latitudes, and aimed slightly away from our swell window, requiring the swell to spread angularly back into the NSW coast - estimating the precise size for each stretch of coastline is difficult, because eventual wave heights will largely come down to local bathymetrical effects.

Anyway, with an existing (though easing) south swell in the water on Tuesday, we may not have to worry much about whether the Lower Mid North Coast sees any energy from this source. If we do, I doubt there’ll be much more than a stray 2ft+ set anyway. Winds will be offshore so conditions will be clean. 

Both the south and (possible) east swell will then ease rapidly into Wednesday morning.

A brief but vigorous front will exit eastern Bass Strait later Tuesday, delivering a brief flush of south swell for very late Wednesday across the Mid North Coast, reaching remaining Northern NSW coasts overnight and providing fun waves for early Thursday morning in the 3ft+ range at south swell magnets south of Byron. Size will ease througout the day though.

Early light NW winds will keep conditions clean ahead of an afternoon northerly, so Thursday morning looks like the pick of the week across Northern NSW. I am not expecting much, if any size to make it north of the border (just a few stray 2ft sets at exposed northern ends of the Gold and possibly Sunshine Coast if we’re lucky).

Strengthening northerly tending NW winds are then expected Friday with generally small residual swells across all coasts. There’s a chance for a minor N’ly windswell but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

This weekend (July 21 - 22)

A vigorous front and low will enter the Lower Tasman Sea late Friday, kicking up a strong south swell for early Saturday that’s expected to be a relatively short lived event. The synoptics look impressive in single snapshots, but (as per the chart below), most of the fetch is SW in direction so the resulting swell energy will need to spread angularly back into the coast, which reduces its size (and consistency) potential. South swell magnets south of Byron should see 5-6ft sets but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere due to the direction, and wave heights will ease steadily through Sunday.

Winds could be an issue on Saturday across Northern NSW - initially moderate to fresh out of the SW, and therefore favouring protected southern corners - but they’ll ease throughout the day and tend S’ly, before we see light offshore pad out Sunday. This will be the best day to plan your diary around.

Across SE Qld, the weekend's south swell won’t create much size at most beaches due the swell direction and tricky swell source. However, exposed south facing beaches and northern ends should pick up occasional 2-3ft+ sets by late Saturday (smaller earlier); they’ll be a little wind affected by this time with early SW winds veering to the south, but Sunday morning looks like your best bet with an early peak ahead of a downwards trend, and a light offshore breeze. Don’t expect much more than a lazy 1ft, maybe 1-2ft at the outer points from this event though. And if anything, expect the lower end of this size range across the Sunshine Coast compared to the Gold Coast. 

Next week (July 23 onwards)

Nothing major standing out at this stage. The current broadscale pattern suggests an upper level block that’ll result in a steep downwards size trend early next week, ahead of a resurgence in southerly swell mid-late next week. More on that in Wednesday’s update.