South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 9th July)

Best Days: Tues: solid S'ly swell in Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld. Easing Wed/Thurs. Fri: possible small E'ly swell in SE Qld. 

Recap: Saturday delivered fun beachies with easing E’ly swells around the 3ft mark in SE Qld (slightly smaller south from Byron), and winds veering to the NW across many coasts. Unfortunately, we saw pockets of N’ly winds throughout the day in some regions, but in general it was pretty good across the board. Sunday saw wave heights ease further early morning before a flukey new south swell build into the afternoon. Despite the Hunter region seeing afternoon sets in the 5-6ft range, south swell magnets south of Byron only managed 4ft sets with the Tweed Coast picking up very inconsistent 2-3ft surf, and much smaller conditions experienced in SE Qld - though conditions were clean all day under W’ly breezes. A second, stronger S’ly swell then pushed across the region today. We’ve seen some impressive wave heights across Southern NSW in the 8ft range, but it’s been smaller across Northern NSW, occasionally reaching 5-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron though not particularly strong. Surf size has been much smaller across SE Qld due to the direction, around 2ft across the outer Gold Coast points and 3ft at exposed northern ends, and a little smaller on the Sunshine Coast. 

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This week (July 10 - 13)

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Although Southern NSW saw wave heights push right to the upper end of forecast expectations today, it only reached the lower end across Northern NSW. 

However buoy data from Sydney showed that a peak in size and strength occurred around 2pm (5.0m Hsig, with 8.65m Hmax!), so allowing for the additional travel time north, we should see the bulk of this energy fill in across Northern NSW overnight. Indeed, the Crowdy Head and Coffs Harbour buoys are still trending upwards, though without the same impressive J-curve seen in Sydney today. 

Nevertheless, even with wave heights expected to reach a brief peak - which will probably occur overnight under the cover of darkness - this suggests that Tuesday morning should still see slightly larger surf than what we’ve seen today, and probably stronger and more consistent too. 

Unfortunately, a fresh southerly change is pushing up the coast and this will create some problems across exposed regions. We should see early regions of SW winds but they’ll largely be confined to regions north of Byron Bay and into SE Qld, and we’re likely to see S’ly winds extend throughout mid-morning. An easing trend is expected later in the afternoon.

As for size, south facing beaches south of Byron should see strong though inconsistent 6ft+ sets, with smaller waves at beaches with less southerly exposure. Size will also trend down a little into the afternoon.

Across SE Qld, I really don’t think this swell direction is going to do most beaches any favours, but we should see inconsistent 2-3ft sets across the outer Gold Coast points, slightly bigger (though more wind affected) at exposed northern ends. Surf size will be a little smaller across the Sunshine Coast. It's really not an ideal synoptic setup for anywhere north of the border so don't get your hopes up for anything amazing.

Tuesday afternoon’s easing trend will then continue into Wednesday, though all coasts will be under a light variable airstream so it’ll be nice and clean on top. Expect 3-5ft surf across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, 1-2ft across SE Qld points and occasional 3ft sets at exposed northern ends. Even smaller surf is then expected into Thursday with similarly light variable winds. 

On Wednesday, a small ridge will form across the north-eastern Tasman Sea, as a trough begins to deepen parallel to the East Coast, eventually focusing off Southern NSW.

The ridge will generate a small trade swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts into Friday, with peaky 2ft+ sets on offer, however Friday is at risk of a redeveloping southerly flow off the western flank of the intensifying trough (which may evolve into a closed low at some point). So southern ends and points may offer the only (small) rideable waves, and it'll be smaller in size south from Ballina.

As such, make the most of what you see over the coming days - especially Wednesday - as the end of the week looks a little iffy for swell and wind.

This weekend (July 14 - 15)

Friday's small trade swell should persist into Saturday though I'm really not expecting much size or strength across the coast.

The developing trough off Southern NSW is modelled to pull away from the coast over the weekend, and this decreases prospects for any notable new swell. The synoptics look impressive in individual snapshots, but the overall eastward track is concerning, and the poor alignment for our region will significantly impact size potential. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Otherwise, the return southerly flow developing adjacent the Southern NSW coast through Friday should generate a mid-range S’ly swell for Saturday though once again it’ll be very steep in direction, short in period and won’t contribute much size to those locations offering protection from the accompanying gusty S’ly wind. 

South facing beaches south of Byron could see wind affected 4-5ft+ sets with smaller surf at remaining beaches, but I’m not expecting much swell to make its way north of the border. 

Easing southerly swells and abating winds backing to the SW are then expected on Sunday, along with a small supply of slow east swell from the eastern flank of the trough. 

Next week (July 16 onwards)

The slow moving Tasman trough looks like it’ll linger in our region into early next week.

Current model guidance doesn’t suggest any major size - mainly due to a continuing poor alignment - but this outlook can be easily reversed with a simple tweak within a single model run. As such, there’s a stack of potential for early next week but nothing specific to hone into yet.

Additionally, the region north of New Zealand will be under the influence of the same broad Tasman trough and this is expected to remain active, just not in a particularly well-aligned manner (at this early stage) - but there is certainly some potential for east swell mid-next week. I'll monitor this closely over the coming days. 

See you Wednesday!