South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 6th July)

Best Days: Sat: fun beachies everywhere, biggest in SE Qld. Sun: building S'ly swell in Northern NSW. Mon/Tues: large S'ly swell in Northern NSW, small in SE Qld though clean on the outer points.

Recap: Building trade swells reached a peak late Thursday and into early this morning, though we’re now seeing an easing trend across the region. Exposed parts of the Sunshine Coast saw 3-5ft sets late Thursday, with smaller surf south from the Gold Coast. However, some locations have experienced N’ly or even NE winds at times, resulting in only a small number of surfable options out of the wind. 

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This weekend (July 7 - 8)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave

Saturday looks really good.

Today’s easing trade swell will continue its downwards trend into the weekend, but winds will swing W/NW across northern regions and W/SW across southern regions, resulting in clean beachbreaks. 

Again, wave heights will be largest across SE Qld beaches where most open stretches should see occasional 3ft sets but by the afternnoon it’ll be down to an inconsistent 2ft. Expect smaller surf south from the border. 

On Sunday we’ll see a strong south swell build across Northern NSW as a strong series of fronts push through the lower Tasman Sea. We’re looking at a broad peak through Monday but Sunday is still likely to push up into the 4-6ft range at south swell magnets (south of Byron) by the end of the day - though we’ll start off with much smaller surf. 

Additionally, it needs to be pointed out that Sunday’s south swell will be mainly sourced from a vigorous though broadening SW flow pushing north-east off the Southern NSW coastline. This is even more flukey than the usual south swells we receive, as the energy has to spread back into the mainland (rather than track parallel to the East Coast, and then refract in) - so confidence in the surf outlook is lower than usual. 

What this means is that we’ll see an even broader range of wave heights throughout the day - only a handful of locations will pick up the upper end of this size range, and most spots will be considerably smaller. I’m not expecting much size to make it north of the Qld border either. Winds will freshen from the SW tending S/SW so expect exposed northern ends to become bumpy too.

With SE Qld not expecting to see much south swell on Sunday (away from exposed northern ends, which’ll be wind affected), most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches will see small residual swells on Sunday. So make the most of Saturday.

Next week (Just 9 onwards)

As the active node of the Long Wave Trough pushes through our south swell window from Sunday onwards, we’ll see better aligned fronts driving through the lower Tasman Sea. This will result in a peak in south swell through Monday afternoon around 6-8ft at south facing beaches (south of Byron) though as per usual the strong southerly swell direction will create much smaller waves elsewhere.

Winds will remain fresh southerly at times (early SW periods too) so the protected spots will offer the best conditions.

This synoptic pattern really won’t be terribly well aligned for SE Qld but we also can’t ignore the sheer size and strength of the frontal progression. As such it’s more than reasonable that with Northern NSW’s swell magnets reaching 6-8ft, we’ll see at least 2-3ft across the outer SE Qld points on Monday (biggest into the afternoon) and these locations will be clean with SW tending S’ly winds. Exposed northern ends will see bigger surf but it’ll be at risk of being blown out.

Solid though easing southerly swells are then expected from Tuesday onwards. A series of strong though much less favourably aligned lows will push through our far south swell window throughout this period, offering occasional pulses of smaller S’ly groundswell through the middle to latter part of the week across Northern NSW.

A weak coastal trough is expected to develop across Southern NSW around Tuesday and may linger through Wednesday, and may also evolve into a more significant swell generating system though it’s still early days.

Otherwise, there's a suggestion that an anchored ridge through the Coral Sea will bring about a period of strengthening trades in SE Qld’s swell window from later Wednesday or Thursday onwards, which should lead to a fun E’ly swell for this region later next week and into the weekend. 

Have a great weekend!