South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 4th July)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: building trade swell, though wind affected in parts with N'lies (Sunny Coast best option with lightest winds). Sat: easing trade swell with offshore winds, biggest in SE Qld. Sun/Mon/Tues: solid S'ly swells in Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld.

Recap: Plenty of surf for the last few days, pushing 5-6ft across Northern NSW and 3-4ft across outer SE Qld points, thanks to a broad trough/low off the coast. Mainly S’ly quadrant winds, strong at times Tuesday, easing today and tending more E’ly. 
 
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Nice lines in Coffs this afternoon

This week (July 5 - 6)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave

The next few days look a little suss with E/NE winds tending NE then eventually N’ly, freshening all the while. We’ll see the most strength in the south (i.e. Mid North Coast) with lighter winds across SE Qld but this will still create a few issues across the regional points. 

Thursday morning is your best chance to capitalise on a small widow of light variable winds around dawn, before the onshores kick in by mid-morning. We’ll see temporarily easing E/SE thru’ SE swells from today, and fun waves across most regions.

We’re actually looking at a fresh round of trade swell then filling in throughout the day, thanks to a strengthening ridge in the Northern Tasman Sea at the moment. This will boost wave heights into the afternoon up around 4-5ft across open SE Qld beaches (upper end of this size range more so across the Sunny Coast), with smaller surf as you head south of the border. Wave heights should reach a peak overnight and then ease slowly through Friday - unfortunately scarred by northerlies. 

The only exceptions to this may be the Sunny Coast (where wind strengths will teeter right on the nuisance boundary) and the Mid North Coast, where we’ll see winds veer to the NW throughout the day. Otherwise, keep your expectations in check for Friday due to these local winds (a shame as the trade swell looks really fun otherwise).

Also arriving very late on Friday across the Lower Mid North Coast will be the leading edge from a flukey south swell, generated by a polar low well south of Tasmania earlier this week. It’ll be hard to distinguish from the pre-existing trade swell but we should see some 2-3ft sets in the last few hours of the day. 

This weekend (July 7 - 8)

The trades will ease in strength through our eastern swell window into Friday, and therefore trade swell will abate steadily over the weekend.

Saturday morning will see the most size with leftover 3ft+ sets across the Sunshine Coast and smaller surf as you head south from the Gold Coast. Conditions will however be nice and clean with mainly offshore winds across all regions. 

South facing beaches south of Byron should also see a small signal of southerly swell from the aforementioned polar low. But it'll be infrequent and thus hard to pick out from the trade swell.

Late Saturday afternoon, a flush of south swell will glance the Mid North Coast, originating from a gale force frontal system exiting eastern Bass Strait on Friday afternoon. We won’t see anything until early-mid afternoon at the earliest, but there’s a reasonable chance that south swell magnets could see occasional 2-3ft+ sets in the few hours before dark (south of Coffs).

This small swell will be fleeting, and though it’ll traverse the remainder of the Northern NSW coast overnight, may end up easing quickly before sunrise Sunday.  

However, we have a much larger south swell on the way for Sunday that’ll override any pre-existing energy anyway. A powerful front will enter the lower Tasman Sea on Saturday evening, driving S/SW gales adjacent the Southern NSW coast that’ll generate a large south swell that could push 6ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron - though it’ll be accompanied with fresh to strong SW winds. 

Due to the swell direction, most other beaches will be a lot smaller but there’ll be good waves across the regional points. However I’m not expecting a lot of size to make its way north of the border. Most beaches will see small residual trade swell, with perhaps a bump to 1-2ft across the outer points late in the day (bigger, but wind affected at exposed south facing beaches and northern ends). 

Let’s take a closer look on Friday.

Next week (Just 9 onwards)

An active node of the Long Wave Trough is driving powerful fronts into WA at the moment, they’ll impact SA later this week and Victoria over the weekend, before finally pushing through the lower Tasman Sea later this week as the LWT moves further to the east. 

This will set up a broad, heavy fetch of southerly gales aimed right through our south swell window, and they’ll generate a couple of days of very large surf at Northern NSW’s south facing beaches in the 6ft to maybe 6-8ft range (Mon/Tues). However, again we’ll see much smaller size across SE Qld, perhaps 2-3ft across some outer points though very inconsistent and certainly not worth making any major plans around.

Secondary fronts trailing behind will maintain moderate southerly energy through the rest of the week, and the entire period is looking really good on the surface with mainly light winds. 

As such, you’re looking at a solid workout for your favourite south swell magnet - they’re going to be sizeable for quite some time.