South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 30th February)

Best Days: Fri thru' Sun: large though windy S tending SE swells. Mon/Tues/Wed: solid though easing SE swell (smaller and more S/SE in the north) with improving conditions.

Recap: Tuesday saw a small easing combo of trade swell in the north, and S’ly swell south from Byron. Wave heights bottomed right out today and early though a S’ly change is now pushing into the Mid North Coast and will reach remaining coasts overnight.

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This week (May 31 - June 1)

The synoptics look complex, but in reality the short term period has a relatively straightforward surf outlook.

Big and windy from the south across Northern NSW. Smaller and less windy to the north.

A Tasman Low will form overnight in the central Tasman Sea, and a series of secondary lows and surface fronts wrapping around its western flank will maintain gale force S’ly winds parallel to the NSW Coast for several days. In fact it won’t be until later in the weekend or early next week that we start to see a notable improvement in surface conditions as winds begin to ease.

However Northern NSW will initially be further away from the developing Tasman Low and will see more of a SW flow through Thursday ahead of a late S’ly change across the Mid North Coast (in fact, models have an afternoon of light/variable winds across SE Qld). Fresh to strong SW tending S’ly winds (through the morning) are then expected for most regions on Friday, with the possible exception of the Sunshine Coast that may not see quite the same synoptic influence as its southern counterparts. 

As for swell, these southerly gales will steadily build swells through Thursday and Friday ahead of a peak into the weekend. Check the raw model guidance from the Gold Coast below - in reality the swell trend won’t be quite this linear, but you get the idea: building, building, building, then easing, easing, easing. All with a lot of southerly wind.

Rather than get stuck into the nitty gritty of size estimates - which is largely a waste of time for most coasts as they’ll be wind affected - we really are better off trying to see when the protected points will be worthwhile. As they’re the only workable options on hand for the bulk of the forecast period.

Excluding a brief window Thursday morning (early SW winds, small to moderate though steadily building S’ly swells in Northern NSW, tiny north of the border), our best options across the outer SE Qld and Far Northern NSW points will be from Friday onwards. In fact, the main kick in size expected on Friday will be from a small embedded low travelling parallel to the NSW coast overnight Thursday, due to be about east of Byron on Friday morning. So, the afternoon is a safer bet for the most size (especially for SE Qld). Thursday afternoon may have some late options though I'm doubtful there'll be enough size or period in the swell to wrap efficiently around the points. 

Anyway, you'll be well advised to keep a close eye on the surfcams, and also the comments below for updates as they come to hand. But, the most size is certainly due over the weekend - so leave it until then if you have to prioritise things.

This weekend (June 2 - 3)

Another strong embedded low will rocket up through our short range south swell window into Saturday, maintaining elevated wave heights throughout the day and into Sunday. Broadly speaking, there’s no real likelihood that we’ll see any major easing in the local wind both days so only protected options will be surfable.

As for size, south facing beaches south of Byron should reach a peak in the 8ft+ range (later Saturday, early Sunday) though protected points will be much smaller.

North the border, the outer SE Qld points should push up into the 4ft range at the peak of the swell (much bigger though heavily wind affected at exposed northern ends) but it’ll be pretty sweepy, and there’ll be a lot less size as you run down their length (sheltered inner points will be considerably smaller.. I’d be hesitant to expect much, if any action at these locations from this event). The Sunshine Coast doesn't usually perform as well as the Gold Coast under these scenarios, so keep your expectations on the lower side. 

Into Sunday afternoon we’ll see a steady drop in south swell, though the Mid North Coast (and eventually, into Monday, remaining coasts) will pick up a late new SE swell (tending S/SE north of the border). This will sourced from some structural changes the Tasman Low is expected to undertake on Saturday, strengthening a new swell source - a broad E’ly fetch on its southern flank, in the southern Tasman Sea - as it moves slowly to the east. This swell may not appear properly until Monday though.

Next week (June 4 onwards)

Sunday’s late increase in SE swell across the Mid North Coast (tending S/SE swell in the north) will hold into Monday. Exposed south facing beaches south of Byron are looking at 6ft+ sets, and conditions should be more manageable as local winds throttle back - though it’ll still be moderate to fresh from the south.

SE Qld’s outer points will benefit a little more from this swell direction, though the associated swell will be smaller, so this will probably maintain 3-4ft waves here (larger again at exposed northern ends).   

As the Tasman Low slowly weakens through the first half of next week we’ll then see a corresponding easing trend in the size department from Tuesday onwards, Local winds are expected to become light by Wednesday.

Otherwise, there are no other major swell systems on the long term radar, just a few fronts in the Southern Ocean that should maintain small background S’ly swell across Northern NSW into the end of next week. More on this in Friday’s notes.