South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 28th February)

Best Days: Tuesday: small clean leftovers at south facing beaches south of the border. Friday onwards: large S'ly swells though windy conditions. Sat/Sun the pick across SE Qld outer points. 

Recap: Local southerly winds favoured the points all weekend (bar the Mid North Coast, which saw generally light/variable conditions) and a strong series of southerly swells continued to produce a wide range in size across the region. Some south facing beaches south of Byron saw early 6ft+ sets, though it was smaller elsewhere and again the Ballina coast didn’t see quite the same peak in size - again. However, as wave heights eased throughout the weekend, the Northern Rivers narrowed closer to the regional spread, and today was very close in size to surrounding exposed coasts. As such the early explanation for its lack of size over the last week is related to the swell source and period, which seemingly steered it away from this region. North of the border we saw fun 2-3ft sets across the outer points both days, being a mix of S’ly groundswell and SE windswell, but local winds cause problems on the Sunny Coast. Surf size throttled back today and winds have been a little lighter.

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This week (May 29 - June 1)

We’ve got a couple of quiet days lining up ahead of a prolonged onslaught of southerly wind and southerly swell. 

A small pulse of S/SE swell was detected on the Southern NSW buoys this afternoon but it’s not expected to amount to much in our hood. If we’re super lucky, some south swell magnets south of Byron may continue to see occasional 2-3ft sets but otherwise we’re probably looking at small weak leftovers across most coasts. The current (easing) trade swell across the Gold Coast will also abate in size.

Light variable winds are expected both days, though a gusty S/SW change will rocket up the NSW cost into Wednesday afternoon, pushing a low quality short range S’ly windswell along with it. This should create a jump in surf size at south facing beaches (south of Byron) shortly after the change but it won’t have a lot of size, and quality will be hard to find. Protected spots won’t really have enough size to bother with, and it’s unlikely to make a dent across SE Qld points either as we move into Thursday - as they’ll be the best locations to take advantage of the accompanying S’ly breeze.

Therefore, Thursday looks like poor mix of S’ly swells as another low tracks parallel to the Eastern Tasmanian and (eventually) Southern NSW coasts, pushing another front up into our neck of the woods. There’ll be more size than Wednesday though it’s unlikely to be enough to favour protected spots south of the border or the points in SE Qld. Keep your expectations low.

Friday looks much more dynamic, though ultimately I fear we’ll see very little surfing opportunities thanks to windy conditions and a strong southerly swell direction.

On Thursday, a broad low will develop in the Central Tasman Sea that’ll end up displaying multiple low pressure centres. This is anticipated to be a complex, slow moving system that will occupy our swell window for quite some time.

The first embedded low in this sequence will reach the Mid North Coast in the early hours of Friday morning, and will generate a large swell increase by the end of the day for south facing beaches south of Byron. Exposed spots should see 6-8ft sets by close of business (smaller earlier) though local winds could reach 30kts+ out of the S/SW. Aim for a sheltered point or southern corner late afternoon as this is when we'll see the most size and energy.

With the primary fetch hugging the NSW coast, the regional swell direction will be narrow out of the S/SW and this doesn’t bode well for SE Qld outer points that will in reality be the only worthwhile options after lunch as the swell builds towards an overnight peak. It’s feasible that we’ll see 2-3ft sets at these spots by late afternoon but acute southerly swells tend to not break well across these locations, and usually confine most of their size to the outer parts of the point (not wrapping efficiently). Anyway, let’s wait and see how Wednesday’s model tweaks look.

This weekend (June 2 - 3)

The Tasman Low forming later this week looks like it’ll kick up several swell sources into the weekend. Friday’s strong swell will ease into Saturday though be replaced by an equally stronger S/SE swell from a secondary low forming well east of Tasmania on Friday.

A somewhat unrelated polar low will then form well south of the Tasman Sea on Thursday, supplying an underlying S’ly swell right throughout the weekend. However a fourth swell source will develop on Saturday - another small surface low embedded within the broader parent Tasman Low, but this time much closer to New Zealand’s West Coast - which will generate strong SE swells for Northern NSW into Sunday and Monday, tending a little more S/SE into SE Qld thanks to its origin. 

However, both days will be accompanied by strong to gale force SW tending S/SW winds across all coasts. So, it’ll be protected points only. And the most sheltered spots (in SE Qld) will be very small thanks to the acute southerly swell direction. However, this should slightly improve over the weekend (and more so into early next week) as we see the swell direction swing slowly anti-clockwise.

As for size, it’s academic across Northern NSW (thanks to the local winds) but south swells magnets should reach an easy 8ft+ later Saturday or early Sunday. Maybe more. Obviously, everywhere else will be much smaller, though the directional southerly energy associated with the main pulse will create a wide range in wave heights between exposed spots and protected southern corners. 

North of the border should see some 3-4ft sets across outer points at the height of the swell (much bigger though terribly wind affected at exposed northern ends) but it’s hard to get enthusiastic right now until we pin down the precise movements of these lows. I'm not confident that the inner sheltered SE Qld points will see much, if any worthwhile surf on Saturday thanks to the southerly direction. Sunday may see a little more potential with the swell direction inching towards the SE though.

Next week (June 4 onwards)

The Tasman Low is expected to weaken slowly towards the end of the weekend, leading to a gradual easing of S/SE tending SE swell throughout the first half of next week - though Monday will still be quite solid at exposed spots south of the border. More importantly, local winds will concurrently ease, and for my money this will probably produce the best waves of the forecast period as we’ll see more manageable surf and better conditions for the points too.