South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th April)

Best Days: Plenty of good waves most days. Thursday (SE Qld, Far Northern NSW) and Saturday (Northern NSW) are at risk of tricky winds though.

Recap: There’s been plenty of south swell across Northern NSW over the last two days, though local winds have created problems at most beaches in the north, with better conditions across the Mid North Coast. Despite reaching 4-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, wave heights have been only small across SE Qld and winds have been fresh from the SE.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week (Mar 17th - 20th)

Winds will throttle back over the next day or so, to become light and variable by Friday across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (they’ll be light both days across the Mid North Coast). This should allow surface conditions to clean up a lot. 

A new long period S’ly swell will push up during Thursday morning, generated by a polar low south of Tasmania earlier this week.

This is expected to kick south facing beaches (south of Byron) back up into the 4-6ft range though the bigger waves will be much less consistent than what we have seen over the last 36 hours, owing to a more distant swell source. 

I’m also expecting the swell periods to draw out a little more - closer to 15 seconds - and this should amplify surf size at offshore bombies, somewhere around 8ft or more at times (though they’ll be quite inconsistent too). Away from south facing beaches, expect much smaller surf. 

Unfortunately, this swell direction isn’t great for SE Qld and with a lingering S/SW tending S/SE breeze, only the points will be properly clean - and they’ll be small in size with occasional 2ft+ sets. Actually, there’ll be some mid-range trade swell in the mix too, from a developing ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea today. This may add a little more size to the outer points and open beaches. 

Otherwise, exposed northern ends across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts will see larger sets in the 3-4ft+ range from the S’ly groundswell on Thursday but they’ll be a little lumpy and bumpy thanks to the residual breeze. 

Surf size will ease steadily into Friday and light variable winds across all coasts will maintain relatively clean conditions. South facing beaches south of Byron will see the most size, down to 3-5ft early at south swell magnets though it’ll lose more size throughout the day, and beaches with less southerly exposure will be smaller.

Across SE Qld, expect a small mix of trade swell and easing S’ly groundswell. Certainly worth a paddle though. 

This weekend (Mar 21st - 22nd)

The weekend’s winds look tricky with a lingering troughy pattern adjacent the coast. Many regions should see light variable winds both days, but we are at risk of a fresh southerly at times - this is more likely across the Mid North Coast on Saturday, extending north to about Ballina.

In any case, Saturday will see a low point in S’ly swell and the mid-late week trade swell will be on the way out too. South facing beaches south of Byron may have some stray 2-3ft sets early morning (smaller later) but with the onshore risk, it’s not worth getting too excited about just now. It’ll be only small in SE Qld too but exposed beaches should have something worthwhile.

Sunday has a renewal of S’ly swell throughout the day, originating from a fresh polar low/front developing well SW of New Zealand on Thursday and Friday. 

It’s a broad system but poorly aligned within our swell window, however I do like the longevity of the fetch in the Southern Ocean and as a result I think we’ll see a decent spread of S’ly tending S/SE swell through Sunday that should deliver 3ft, maybe 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, smaller elsewhere. I don’t think this will deliver much surf north of the border either, just a few 2ft+ sets across exposed northern ends. Expect a lag on its arrival in the north too. 

Next week (Mat 23rd onwards) 

Easing southerly swells are expected on Monday. 

The long range outlook remains favourable, with Monday’s prediction for an unstable troughy pattern across the eastern Tasman Sea still on track. In fact there’s some pretty crazy model guidance for next weekend (15-18ft E’ly swell for Southern NSW!), though this will no doubt be pulled back considerably in future model updates. 

For now, we can expect an extended period of activity from our mid range eastern swell window, with small E’ly swells building all week towards some larger surf late in the week or next weekend. It’s still a long time away though so don’t make an early travel plans.