South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 19th March)

Best Days: Protected points from Wed onwards. 

Recap: Saturday saw generally fun and steady E/SE swell across SE Qld in the 3ft range, easing slowly through Sunday. Northern NSW picked up a moderate long period swell through Saturday that reached 3-5ft at south swell magnets south of Byron into the afternoon, before easing through Sunday. Today has seen only small residual swells across all coasts. 

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Next week (Mar 20th - 23rd)

We’ve got an extended period of onshore winds coming up. 

Tuesday should see rather benign winds across most regions; light to moderate onshores across SE Qld (may be variable early), and variable winds across Northern NSW as a cold front pushing into the southern Tasman Sea drives a shallow southerly change across Southern NSW, merging with a weak trough currently sitting off the coast (it’ll probably stall around Newcastle).

However, a large high pressure system well to the south will then drive a strong ridge across the East Coast, delivering gusty SE winds from Wednesday thru’ Friday. The only exception to this may be the Mid North Coast which could experience a period of lighter winds early Wednesday morning before the localised trough breaks down. 

It’s a shame local winds aren’t looking too flash for the second half of the week, as we have some useful mid-range swell on the way, from an E’ly fetch that developed off New Zealand’s North Island over the weekend. However, the strengthening ridge will generate plenty of local SE swell and there’ll be more than enough size for sheltered points - which is fortunate as they’ll be the only spots offering anything remotely surfable. 

Wave heights are expected to build steadily through Wednesday, reaching a peak later Thursday or Friday, though we actually have two distinct swell sources contained within the one ridge - the strongest fetch is located in the central-Tasman (aimed into the Mid North Coast) whilst a second, weaker fetch through the northern Tasman and Coral Sea will generate swell for SE Qld (see chart below).

As such we may see some disparity in wave heights across the coast though it’s likely most open beaches in Northern NSW should push north of 6ft+ by the end of the week (expect much smaller surf at protected spots, obviously). 

SE Qld outer points should reach a wobbly 3-5ft throughout the latter part of this time frame and there’ll be bigger - though horribly wind affected - waves at exposed beaches. Inner points will offer the best surf though as per usual it’ll be a lot smaller. 

Winds may also clock around to more of an easterly direction by the end of the week too, thanks to a broad, slowly southward tracking trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea. However this will also maintain an active fetch in our near swell window so wave heights will remain right up there.

This weekend (Mar 24th - 25th)

The coastal ridge will break down into the weekend which means steadily abating winds and easing local swells. 

We’ll also see some slightly smaller but better quality, longer range E’ly swell over the weekend, sourced from a strong high pressure system off New Zealand’s East Coast all week (with the responsible fetch to NZ’s north). 

Surf size should maintain a healthy percentage of size across SE Qld early Saturday but will become a little smaller into Sunday; winds will be onshore all weekend but we may also see periods of variable winds at times. 

So, don’t expect classic conditions but there’ll certainly be super fun waves across most points (outer and inner). 

Across the Mid North Coast we’ll see light variable winds Saturday swinging to the northern quadrant on Sunday as a fresh southerly change approaches. We also have some new groundswell in the water south from Byron, sourced from a secondary low off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island, lingering all week but finally aligning nicely within our swell window around Thursday.

This should give rise to a building SE swell in the 3-5ft range at south facing beaches for Saturday (easing slowly Sunday). 

So, plenty of swell all weekend but you’ll have to pick your windows around the local winds. 

Next week (Mar 26th onwards)

Long term prospects remain quite dynamic for our region, with a possible Tropical Cyclone in the Coral Sea this week that may influence the synoptics early next week - model guidance has it sliding down the eastern side of New Caledonia, but this is at the end of the model runs right now and it doesn’t take much to give it a slight nudge to the west, which would be much more beneficial for our surf prospects. 

Other swell sources include a possible Tasman Low across Northern NSW's southern swell window early next week. 

And lastly - going out on a limb - long term model guidance also has some juicy developments north of New Zealand around the end of the month as next week's Tasman Sea activity merges with the aforementioned tropical activity. It's too far out to really hone in on, but it'll be well worth revisiting up Wednesday's updated notes.