South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th February)

Best Days: Thurs: fun beaches with a combo of SE swells, and NW winds ahead of a developing S'ly change in the south. Mon/Tues: fun though small and inconsistent E'ly swell

Recap: It's been a bit average across SE Qld for the last few days with the southerly swell only showing across northern ends around 3ft Tuesday, smaller today. Outer points had occasional 2ft sets Tuesday but it was pretty slow and weak. Northern NSW was largely wind affected on Tuesday, but improved this morning with early W/SW winds as a strong mid-range S/SE swell eased. Both days have seen good conditions across the Mid North Coast with plenty of SE swell. 

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This week (Mar 1 - Mar 2)

A southerly change will slowly push up the Northern NSW coast on Thursday.

Today’s SE swell will initially ease back in size, and ahead of the change we’ll see light to moderate NW winds, so there’ll be great waves across the beaches. 

The S’ly change should reach Port Mac mid-late morning, Coffs Harbour early-mid afternoon, and then the Far North Coast probably after dinnertime. 

Size should manage 3-4ft sets south from Byron ahead of a slight pulse of new SE swell into the afternoon, generated by a low that developed off New Zealand’s South Island on Tuesday. Satellite winds came in a little under model predictions so I’m going o ease back the projected surf size to 3-4ft with perhaps a few late bombs at reliable swell magnets.

Across SE Qld, we’ll see small residual SE swells on Thursday, and the new SE pulse won’t manage much size here. The points won’t enjoy the NW wind (though it won’t be very strong, in fact should be variable on the Sunny Coast) but exposed northern ends will have the most size, building from an inconsistent 2ft to 2-3ft into the afternoon (expect smaller surf way from these exposed beahes). Keep an eye out for a NE sea breeze too. 

Moderate S’ly winds will then occupy much of Friday, with isolated pockets of early SW winds. Thursday’s SE swell will ease slowly in size, and south facing beaches south of Byron should see a small S’ly swell increasing to around 3ft+. Certainly not a great round of surf though there’ll be workable options. 

This weekend (Mar 3 - 4)

Friday’s combo of easing SE and steady S’ly swell will ease into Saturday. 

Unfortunately, there are no new swell sources for the weekend so we’re looking at small residual energy across all beaches with variable winds and sea breezes Saturday tending some form of northerly on Sunday. 

Aim for your favourite south swell magnet and keep your expectations low. 

Next week (Mar 5 onwards)

A series of Southern Ocean fronts throughout the forecast period look poorly aligned for our swell window, so I’m disregarding them for any major swell potential.

A small but interesting tropical low is expected to form north of New Zealand over the coming days, and although displaying a very short fetch length (thanks to a lack of a supporting ridge) it is expected to hang around for a healthy amount of time, 

This should generate some small long range E’ly swell through Monday and Tuesday, likely to be extremely inconsistent but should still kick up 2-3ft sets at reliable swell magnets early next week.

Conditions look tricky under a troughy pattern so we’re likely to see periods of onshore winds, though no major strength is expected around this time. So, there should be OK options. I’ll fine tune the specifics on Friday. 

Otherwise, next week looks inherently unstable with a broad trough developing across the coast, freshening local onshore winds but also building local swell potential. It’s too early to pin anything down (the models are in disagreement around the specifics) but confidence is increasing that we’ll see a decent swell generating system in the Tasman Sea next week.