South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 23rd February)

Best Days: Tues thru' Fri: fun mix of E'ly and S/SE swells. Biggest in Northern NSW.

Recap: Mainly onshore winds have created poor surfing conditions across much of SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for the last few days, though there’s been plenty of surf from the east and south-east. South from Coffs, winds have been lighter with better conditions, with easing SE swells Thursday punching a little higher than expected today with a strong new SE groundswell, up to 4-6ft at south facing beaches. 

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Decent sets in Coffs Harbour late arvo

This weekend (Feb 24 - 25)

Today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s on leave. 

Looks like a pretty ordinary weekend ahead. 

The current E’ly flow across northern regions will ease marginally and swing more NE, then N’ly. As such we won’t really see any opportunity for the surf to improve in quality. 

As the local E’ly fetch eases across the lower Coral Sea, wave heights will subsequently abate in sync (though with a slight delay), down from 3-4ft+ Saturday morning to 2-3ft by the afternoon across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, holding this size into Sunday morning before easing a little more into the afternoon. There’ll also be some small SE swell in the mix too.

But, local winds will really spoil the party. We should see a small window of early NW winds on Sunday morning but it’s unlikely to have the required characteristics to sufficiently iron out the bumps from (what will have been by then) four consecutive days of onshore winds. So, keep you expectations low and aim for northern ends if you must.

This local E’ly swell will be less prevalent south from Ballina, in fact most of Northern NSW will be relying on easing SE swell from today for its primary surf source. Easing SE swell should maintain early 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches on Saturday, and the strengthening N/NE wind should generate some low quality windswell for the afternoon as the SE swell abates - so try northern corners if you're desperate.

Sunday will see a small mix of swells with generally average conditions though variable winds may settle in by the afternoon, ahead of a southerly change that may impact Seal Rocks through Port Mac during the last few hours of the day. 

Next week (Feb 26 onwards)

Model guidance is split on how, where and when a southerly change will advance along the Northern NSW coast early next week. It’s likely to happen at some point before Wednesday (southern regions should see some form of change overnight Sunday) but we’ll need a few more days to iron out the specifics. 

Either way, we have new swell from a few sources for next week. A low trailing Sunday’s change through the southern Tasman Sea has been downgraded so we’re not looking at a great deal of south groundswell early next week any more, just 3-4ft sets building later Monday (Mid North Coast) and into Tuesday (remaining Northern NSW), easing into Wednesday. 

A developing E’ly dip in the central/northern Tasman Sea from Monday onwards will be aimed mainly towards the Mid North Coast, but we’ll see some useful swell from it throughout the middle to latter part of the week. Exposed parts of Northern NSW should hold 3-5ft from Tuesday to Friday with a peak of slightly bigger waves possible late Wednesday or early Thursday.

However, the alignment of the low will be crucial for SE Qld’s surf prospects. At this stage I’ll peg size around 2-3ft+ across the outer points and exposed northern ends from Tues thru’ Fri, but will revise over the weekend. 

Winds look like they’ll probably be out of the south all week, so there should be good options across the points. 

This E'ly dip in the Tasman Sea is currently modelled to hang around for a few days so could be a swell producer through into next weekend too.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!