South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 21st February)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri/Sat: protected points in SE Qld under an E'ly airstream and a combo of swells from the SE and E. Thurs/Fri: fun swell combo on the Mid North Coast with mainly light winds. Tues/Wed: strong south swell. 

Recap: Easing E’ly swells Tuesday gave way to freshening S’ly tending SE winds and a swing in the swell direction to the SE and S, persisting around 3-5ft across Northern NSW with an appreciable amount of size getting into SE Qld in the 3ft range. Even the protected points like Noosa still have some small waves this afternoon, generated by a local fetch related to a deepening trough off the Central Qld coast. Winds were pretty gusty out of the east overnight in some areas but have generally been SE for much of today, confining the only rideable waves to protected locations. 

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This week (Feb 20 - 23)

Today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s on leave.

The remnants of ex-TC Gita flared up off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island yesterday, and it’s generating a new SE swell that will arrive through Thursday afternoon. 

For some reason though, the models are slightly undercalling this swell and also delaying its arrival. The fetch is of a very nice length, and a respectable width; the only negative aspect is its relatively short duration in our swell window. Similar systems have provided very good waves in the past - it’s a reasonably common swell source that I feel pretty comfortable with.

Wave heights will ease initially through Thursday morning before rebuilding slowly into the afternoon ahead of a more prominent pulse on Friday morning, that should manage 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches south from Byron (smaller elsewhere). We’ll also see 2-3ft surf from this source across the outer SE Qld points. However it probably won't be very consistent, and there'll be a more dominant swell source in the water here.

Also in the mix across SE Qld will be a local E/SE swell from the fetch right on our doorstep (generating the locally breezey conditions). This is generating an additional 3-4ft of short range energy for the Sunshine Coast, with smaller surf south from the Gold Coast. This fetch will gradually weaken from Thursday and slowly rotate anti-clockwise (i.e. favouring southern locations), so the most likely outcome is a gradual drop in size throughout the period. Size should manage 3-4ft on Thursday morning at exposed beaches, smaller thereafter. 

Local conditions look tricky across SE Qld under the influence of the Coral Sea trough, as we’re likely to see extended periods of moderate to fresh E’ly winds Thursday, possibly tending E/NE into Friday. This trough will influence surf conditions south to about Ballina, with light variable winds expected across the Mid North Coast (tending light to moderate NE into the afternoons). 

So, on the balance, only protected points will really have anything worthwhile throughout the forecast period, except the Mid North Coast should should see reasonable surf at most locations. 

This weekend (Feb 24 - 25)

Friday's SE swell will ease steadily into Saturday, so apart from some lingering 3-4ft sets south of Byron early morning, we’re looking at smaller surf otherwise. Outer points and exposed northern ends of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts may see some early 2-3ft sets (smaller elsewhere) but it’ll ease through Saturday and further into Sunday.

Small lingering E’ly swells will persist about SE Qld and Far Northern NSW into Saturday but it’ll be pretty much gone by Sunday. 

Northerly winds are going to cause problems anyway, as a southerly change approaches from the south (it’s not due to arrive across the Mid North Coast until very early Monday). So, the only workable options will be northern ends and protected north corners. There’s a chance for a few windows of opportunity but at this stage it’s hard to have confidence that there'll be anything spectacular. 

My recommendation for the weekend is to aim for the beachbreaks Saturday morning before the wind kicks into gear and the surf starts to loses size. 

Next week (Feb 26 onwards)

A strong low/front will push into the lower Tasman Sea on Sunday, driving strong southerly winds through the Tasman Sea and and generating a wind change for Monday. 

At this stage we’re looking at a couple of days of strong activity through the Southern Tasman Sea and this should give rise to a decent pulse of S’ly tending S/SE groundswell on Tuesday and Wednesday (Monday should see some average windswell trailing the change). It’s too early to put a size on it but sets are likely to push 5-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. There should be some small peelers across the outer SE Qld points too.

See you Friday!