South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 19th February)

Best Days: Outer SE Qld points should have fun waves all week. Mainly onshore winds will affect most open beaches throughout the period.

Recap: Building 4-6ft E’ly cyclone swell through Saturday increased to 6-8ft Sunday morning, before peaking Sunday afternoon, pushing 10ft+ at some exposed spots. However, there’s been a wide variation in reported size up and down the coast, not just from observers but also buoy readings, with the most size/energy seeming to have a high concentration around the Gold/Tweed Coasts. Wave heights were still pushing 6-8ft at some coasts this morning but we’ve seen a steady easing trend throughout the day. Winds have been out of the south and thus ideal for the regional points. 

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

Solid 6-8ft bombs in Coffs Harbour this morning

This week (Feb 20 - 23)

First up - thanks everyone for your reports and comments in these Forecaster Notes over the last week (and indeed the last sixteen years), as we’ve monitored this cyclone swell event. As well as providing plenty of light entertainment, everyone’s input is valuable from a scientific point of view - as the data collection of surf obs is much more sporadic and coarse than I’d prefer - so your real-time commentary helps to improve the service. 

As to how this swell performed - I’m limited on time today (Craig is on leave, so I’m doing his forecasts too) and I’d like to do a quick hindcast of the event - I’ll try to do this tomorrow. But in short, I’m reasonably pleased with how it all panned out across SE Qld and Northern NSW - most regions saw strong, sizable swells as expected (not very often that we see long period cyclone swells build from 4-6ft to 6-8ft then 10ft, then back to 6-8ft over the space of four days).

However some aspects of the forecast didn’t eventuate at all, and some regions saw a smaller-than-expected peak in surf size (indeed, Southern NSW dipped out a lot), so I’d like a little more time to delve into why this occurred. Stay tuned for more.

So, moving right along into the current forecast, and now that we’re on the backside of this E’ly swell, we can expect a steady easing trend through Tuesday. A strong high pressure system south of Tasmania is driving a ridge along the East Coast, and this will freshen S’ly tending SE winds over the next few days, which will confine the only rideable options to sheltered points. 

We’ll see a low to average quality short range S/SE swell build in the wake of this fetch, but those beaches picking up most of the size (in Northern NSW) will be pretty poor in quality thanks to the accompany winds. A small SE swell should also fill in simultaneously, generated by a brief fetch on the bottom flank of TC Gita, but it’s tracking southwards away from our swell window which majorly reduces its potential.

Northern NSW open beaches may see ordinary 4-5ft+ surf at south facing beaches through Tuesday and Wednesday, whilst north of the border we’re looking at fun surf rebuilding back to 2-3ft on the Gold Coast points, slightly smaller on the Sunshine Coast (bigger surf at south swell magnets and exposed northern ends).

Tuesday morning should see plenty of leftover E’ly swell too, somewhere in the 2-3ft range across the points, though it’ll be easing steadily during the day. 

The remnants of ex-TC Gita will reform off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island on Tuesday, forming a broad fetch of gales that will give rise to a brief flush of SE groundswell through Thursday. This should provide 4-5ft sets across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, though the angle won’t be great for SE Qld so it’ll be small here, maybe 2ft to occasionally 2-3ft across the Gold Coast’s outer points, bigger at exposed northern ends however smaller on the Sunny Coast. Expect slow, inconsistent sets that'll certainly lack the strength and push seen over the last few days. 

A developing coastal trough across the Central Qld coast mid-week will develop a decent E/SE fetch into SE Qld’s near swell window to end the week. The downside is that this will keep conditions below average at most beaches (though the points should be workable) however it’ll also kick up some punchy local surf in the 3ft+ range that should favour most beaches through Thursday and Friday. Wave heights will initially be concentrated around the Sunny Coast but models are in general agreement that the trough will push south into Friday and start to favour the Gold Coast. In any case expect smaller surf from this source south from the border. 

Winds across  for Northern NSW will veer E’ly on Thursday then NE on Friday; no major strength but you may have to dive into a sheltered northern corner for the best options to finish the week as Thursday’s SE swell eases. 

This weekend (Feb 24 - 25)

Looks like a patchy weekend of waves.

The only notable swell source is the Coral Sea trough just north of SE Qld, which will probably weaken, leading to an easing of short range E’ly swells. 3ft sets are possible on the Gold, Sunshine and Tweed Coasts to begin with but it’ll get smaller as the weekend progresses, and surf size will be smaller south from Byron.

Worse, we’re looking at developing NE winds all weekend (strongest on the Mid North Coast), which will limit the number of clean options. 

Next week (Feb 26 onwards)

Noting major on the long term charts for now.