South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 7th February)

Best Days: Thurs: fun though easing S'ly swell in Northern NSW, small swell combo in SE Qld. Fri: rebuilding E'ly swell across SE Qld. Sat: further increase in E'ly swell everywhere, with light winds. 

Recap: Our new E’ly swell that built Monday didn’t end up quite reaching forecast expectations, with generally inconsistent 3ft+ sets on offer across most open beaches early Tuesday morning, easing slowly throughout the day and into Wednesday, though there are still 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches this afternoon. A new S’ly swell has however built across south facing beaches in Northern NSW today, with sets around 4ft (see image from our Coffs Harbour surfcam, below). 

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Building S'ly swell in Coffs Harbour this afternoon

This week and weekend (Feb 8-9)

Thursday will see a slow easing of the current S’ly swell across the coast, which is due to reach peak tonight around 4-5ft across Northern NSW. Early morning will see the most size, but it’ll be biggest in the north - sets somewhere between 3ft and 5ft from Byron to Coffs Harbour at dawn, smaller south from here, and with a steady easing trend throughout the day. 

This south swell isn’t well aligned for SE Qld so we’ll see a small combo of residual swell and south swell here, with the most size at exposed northern ends up to 2-3ft. Most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches will see smaller surf around the 1-2ft mark. 

The current ridge over the region will weaken slowly into Thursday, which should result in early SW winds tending moderate SE across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts, with a longer period of lighter SW winds across the Mid North Coast. Certainly not perfect but workable in the morning.

On Friday, the south swell will continue to ease but we’ll see a new mid-range E’ly swell fill in, generated by a developing trough north and north-east of New Zealand. It’s expected to strength and push towards our coast over the coming days, generating a larger swell over the weekend, but initially we’ll see an increase in size throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW from the early stages of this system that is not particularly well aligned for our region (aimed into New Caledonia). 

Surf size should build up into the 2-3ft range at most open beaches and outer points during the day, though surf size will be smaller south from about Ballina. There’ll be some trailing S’ly swell in the water here but not a lot. 

Winds look pretty good just about everywhere on Friday, mainly light and variable with sea breezes. So there’ll be fun workable options to finish the working week. 

This weekend (Feb 10-11)

Saturday looks like the pick of the weekend, with freshening northerlies set to cause some problems on Sunday. 

Fortunately, both days will see building E’ly swells from the westward-tracking trough across the north of New Zealand. It’s expected to cross the North Island and enter the Tasman Sea on Thursday and should reach maturity early Friday, before easing off (though a trailing NE fetch to the NE of new Zealand should maintain background energy beyond the initial pulse). 

Wave heights should build from 3ft+ on Saturday across Northern NSW to 4ft+ by Sunday morning, then easing throughout the afternoon. Surf size will be a little smaller across SE Qld due to the swell direction, building from 2-3ft to 3ft+ across the outer points from Saturday into Sunday, with bigger surf at exposed northern ends. 

Saturday is certainly the best day to aim for though with generally light winds and sea breezes. There’s a chance for an early period of NW winds on Sunday morning across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW but elsewhere we’re looking at freshening N’ly winds that could reach 15-18kts into the afternoon, which will restrict the best surf to protected northern corners. 

Also in the water over the weekend will be a small, inconsistent pulse of long range S/SE swell generated by a polar low off the ice shelf south of New Zealand earlier this week. Only south facing beaches south of Byron will pica up this energy, with Saturday the best chance for any decent size (expect long breaks between the sets). 

Next week (Feb 12 onwards)

Most of the long term synoptic activity will occur in the South Pacific as a series of tropical lows pull off the monsoon trough, with one or two likely to develop into Tropical Cyclones. At this stage it’s still too early to pin down the specifics however the middle to latter part of next week is looking at some small to moderate long range E'ly groundswell energy across Southern NSW, with further swell expected beyond this too.

The Tasman Sea also looks a little unstable in the model runs for next week though there’s no definitive sign of any major swell generating systems. However, there is certainly many of the required ingredients, and I’m confident we’ll be looking at some punchy mid range swell from a local weather system at some point during the week. So, let’s take a closer look on Friday to see how it’s all shaping up.