South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 29th January)

Best Days: Great waves most days, though fresh S'ly tending S/SE winds will confine the best waves to protected spots. Thursday will see the most size.

Recap: Pumping combo of swells mainly out of the E/NE, size around 3-4ft Tuesday and 4-5ft today, with great winds for the points. 

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week (Feb 1st - 2nd)

SE Qld is seeing a peak in primary groundswell today, of which this source will trend down from Thursday. We’re still approaching the peak across much of Northern NSW (likely to occur overnight) we’ll eventually see a steady easing trend into Thursday here too.

However, a gusty southerly change will push up the Northern NSW coast overnight, reaching SE Qld early morning and a broad fetch trailing behind will kick up a strong south swell into the afternoon. Only Northern NSW will see an appreciable level of size from this source; the swell direction will be a little too south for SE Qld and the residual E’ly swell (tending E/SE throughout this time) will probably be off a slightly bigger size range. And these accompanying southerly winds will restrict surfable options to sheltered points. 

So… how big are we looking at? 

The E’ly swell will be largest in Northern NSW, around 4-6ft at exposed beaches south of Byron early Thursday morning, easing to 3-5ft during the day. Wave heights will start to taper off in size as you head north from Byron; somewhere between 3-5ft across the Tweed Coast, 3-4ft on the Gold Coast and then 3ft+ across the Sunny Coast. Expect size to also ease throughout the day, and further into Friday. The open beaches will however be blown out under the southerly. 

As for the south swell, Thursday should see a peak at south facing beaches around 4-6ft, easing to 3-5ft by Friday morning and then 3-4ft into Friday afternoon. However protected locations will be smaller due to the swell direction, and we’re probably looking at 2ft+ S’ly swell getting into the outer SE Qld points Thursday afternoon and maybe early Friday, up to 3ft+ at exposed northern ends. With the southerly breeze on hand the protected points will certainly be your best option.

Fresh S/SE winds will linger thought ease across Northern NSW into Friday as a ridge holds firm across the coast. There’s an outside chance for a few regions of early SW winds but it won’t improve surf quality to any major degree. 

This weekend (Feb 3rd - 4th)

A reinforcing pulse of SE swell will provide great waves across Northern NSW over the weekend, plus a small south swell for Sunday will keep south facing beaches active south of Byron.

Additionally, an extension of E’ly winds out through the South Pacific - tied in with a developing trough-cum-subtopical-low north-east of New Zealand - will maintain small background E’ly swell across most open beaches too. 

The SE pulse will originate from a brief strengthening of S/SE winds in the SW Tasman Sea on Thursday, resulting from the merger between ex-TC Fehi and the front responsible for last night’s southerly change. The fetch won’t be ideally aimed within our swell window, but its strength and (short lived) width should be sufficient for a decent pulse of energy on Saturday in the 3-4ft+ range at south facing beaches south of Byron. Expect smaller surf elsewhere as the E’ly swell continues to fade. 

On Sunday, a small pulse of S/SE swell will nose into the Mid North Coast after lunch, originating from a polar front/low in the Southern Ocean currently tracking NE towards New Zealand’s South Island. Again, it’s poorly aligned and the sets will be inconsistent - probably limited to reliable south swell magnets - but we should see occasional 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets at times south of Byron later in the day.

Elsewhere, most open beaches should pick up inconsistent E’ly swell from the South Pacific somewhere between 2ft and maybe 2-3ft if we’re lucky both days, perhaps with Saturday seeing a smidge more size than Sunday. There’ll be long breaks for waves from this source but it’ll help out across SE Qld where surf size will otherwise dip right away. 

As for winds this weekend, a stationary ridge across the coast will maintain moderate to fresh S/SE winds both days, lighter and SW for a period early morning across a few locations. So, it looks like another round of conditions best suited to the outer points. 

Next week (Feb 5th onwards)

A brief pulse of E'ly swell is expected to arrive Monday, from a deepening trough NE of New Zealand today that’s expected to reach maturity as a strong sub tropical low on Thursday, displaying a broad region of easterly gales.

The somewhat short duration within our swell window and the long travel distance will cap wave heights to an inconsistent 3-4ft. I’ll fine tune the arrival on Friday but it’s an interesting little system that could produce some worthwhile (though infrequent) waves. 

A decent series of fronts will push through the Southern Ocean and lower Tasman Sea from this weekend onwards, generating a reasonable spell of useful south swell for Southern NSW. This swell should push across the Northern NSW coast throughout Tuesday (earlier in the south, later in the north), holding into Wednesday with sets up to 4-5ft or so at south facing beaches south of Byron. Expect much smaller surf from this source throughout SE Qld; 2ft across outer points and 3ft+ at exposed northern ends. 

Elsewhere, there’s still a lot of tropical potential through the South Pacific stemming form a series of system spinning off the monsoon trough. However there’s nothing concrete at this stage so we’ll have to reevaluate in Friday’s notes.