South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 17th January)

Best Days: Thurs: strong though easing S/SE swell in Northern NSW, smaller across SE Qld outer points and very inconsistent here. Fri: further small drop in size. Sat: clean beachies, biggest south from Byron. Sun: small clean beachies. 

Recap: No shortage of swell over the last few days, though with a large range in wave heights. Most of the outer SE Qld points have seen 3-4ft surf though exposed northern ends have been unruly in the 6ft+ range. South of the border (and more specifically, south from Byron) wave heights seemed to peak from late Tuesday through early Wednesday, around 8ft+ at times though much smaller at protected spots. Size seems to be easing this afternoon across all coasts. Gusty S’ly winds Tuesday eased back today though have remained fresh at times, and we’ve seen brief periods of early SW winds in a few regions, plus SE tendencies through the afternoons.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week (Jan 18th - 19th)

After the last few days of strong swells, the next few are relatively straight forward from a forecasting point of view - it’s heading one direction, downwards. Continually. In fact, there are no major swell sources in the outlook so you’ll really want to capitalise on Thursday and Friday.

However, we are seeing a reinforcing pulse across Southern NSW this afternoon and this should maintain elevated wave heights across the region into Thursday - probably a similar size range at first as per what we’ve seen this afternoon. 

SE Qld outer points should manage early 3ft sets, though they’ll be extremely inconsistent and it’ll drop to around 2ft during the day. Exposed northern ends should hold 4-5ft early, easing to 3-4ft during the day. Again, it'll be very inconsistent throughout the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.

South facing beaches south from Byron should pick up early 6ft, maybe 6-8ft bombs, before it eases to 4-6ft during the day. However, these locations will see plenty of residual wobble from the last few days of strong S'ly winds. Expect smaller surf at locations not open to the south - they'll be much cleaner and worth your effort.

Friday will continue the downwards trend with wave heights expected to lose a small amount of size. However, we won’t see quite as much of a size drop as you’d normally expect, because the Tasman Low - although weakening - will remain in place in the central Tasman Sea through the rest of this week. In fact, it’ll track slowly north-west towards our region, which will display a small swell generating fetch that’ll keep exposed beaches alive through into the weekend. 

So, we should see small runners across the outer SE Qld points on Friday (just 1-2ft, and very inconsistent) but there’ll be fun waves chunky waves south of the border across the open beaches. 

Surface conditions look pretty good for protected spots both days. The existing southerly flow will weaken, which should bring about a decent period of light SW winds through the mornings, tending S’ly then SE throughout the days. 

This weekend (Jan 20th - 21st)

The weakening Tasman Low will slightly arrest the easing trend into the weekend, which is a saving grace as we have no other swell sources inbound. 

The most size potential will be seen south from Byron on Saturday, with exposed beaches expected to maintain early 3ft+ sets before it eases slowly into the afternoon and further into Sunday. 

Across SE Qld, there won’t be much size on the outer points (1-1.5ft) but the northern ends should pull in occasional 2ft+ sets early Saturday before size eases into the afternoon and further into Sunday.

There won’t be much wind around this weekend north of the border, light early light SW winds both days tending light to moderate SE, but the remnants of the Tasman Low may briefly freshen SE winds south of the border into Saturday afternoon (early morning should see light SW winds for a brief period). Sunday looks pretty good with light winds and sea breezes. 

Next week (Jan 22nd onwards)

There’s not much to get excited about at this stage for the long term. However, we do have a few regions to keep an eye on.

Monday’s fantasy Coral Sea cyclone has been wiped off the charts (unsurprisingly) so we’re looking towards more distant swell sources for now.

The primary long range weather system of any note is a broad tropical low that’s expected to develop east of Fiji/Samoa this weekend, and is then modelled to slowly track SW towards the northern tip of New Zealand. At such long range (and without any notable strength) its early stages are not really worth too much attention.

However if it pushes closer to our region as currently forecast, we could see some E’ly swell potential for the latter part of next week and the following weekend, extending into the first half of the following week (yeah, it’ll be a relatively long lived swell event if it happens).

See you Friday!