South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th December)

Best Days: Thurs, Fri & Sat mornings: small peaky E'ly swells (SE in the north) with pockets of early light winds (more so in the north than the south, though size will be smaller in the north). Sun/Mon: low confidence for a distance E'ly swell in SE Qld. 

Recap: Tuesday saw slowly building short range swells across Northern NSW (E’ly in the south, more SE further north) that have reached a peak today, around 3-4ft across the Mid North Coast, but smaller with increasing northerly latitude. However as per the surfcam grab from D’Bah this afternoon (below), some Gold Coast beaches are seeing reasonable 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets. Surf size is much smaller on the Sunny Coast though. Winds are generally light so conditions are OK.

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Fun lines of SE swell at D'Bah this afternoon

This week (Dec 28 - 29)

Today’s E’ly swell will ease throughout Thursday and Friday, and winds will freshen from the NE as a weak trough approaches from the south-west. Winds should remain relatively light and variable north from Yamba on Thursday, so we should see small peaky waves at exposed beaches. Though, keep in mind that the ‘variable’ wind outlook in the north means it could come from any direction, which includes onshores. 

Thursday morning may see some early sets nudge just below today’s peak size, but it’ll trend down throughout the day. So aim for a morning paddle for the most size.

A brief, small rebuilding ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea today should keep wave heights from becoming totally flat across SE Qld into Friday (and maybe Saturday). But we're only taking small surf at best.

N/NE winds will become quite gusty across the Mid North Coast on Friday, and with no new swell in the water there’s nothing to really get very excited about. Only surfable options will be a small peaky beachie across the Gold, Tweed or Byron Coasts early morning before the wind kicks into gear. But I’m doubtful there’ll be much size at all, maybe 1-1.5ft north of the border and 1-2ft south of the border.

This weekend (Dec 30 - 31)

Very small swells are expected over the weekend. And, northerly winds will create poor condition at many locations on Saturday. 

We’ll see a NW trend across the Mid North Coast, but without any size or strength in the surf it’s hardly worth capitalising on. 

Model guidance is suggesting a brief N’ly fetch will broaden offshore from the SE Qld coast overnight Saturday, from about Byron latitudes up to the Capricorn Coast. This may generate a minor N’ly windswell for Sunday morning (probably just the Gold and Tweed Coasts), but we’re talking weak 1-2ft waves at NE swell magnets absolute tops. 

Elsewhere across SE Qld, we are still on track for an extremely distant E/SE groundswell to arrive on Sunday, generated by a deep mid-latitude low well east of New Zealand (and south of Tahiti) last weekend. 

This swell should build slowly through the day and may in fact peak early in the new week - however it’s going to be a very, very inconsistent event with up to 20 minutes or more between sets. A handful of exposed beaches north of Byron may pick up stray 2ft+ sets late afternoon (greatest chance for this on the Sunny Coast), but due to the shadowing of New Zealand, it’s unlikely we’ll see much size south from Byron. 

Otherwise, a shallow S’ly change will nose into the Northern NSW coast early Sunday, without any major strength, reaching the Gold Coast around lunchtime. As such winds should be variable across SE Qld early morning, tending moderate S’ly then S/SE into the afternoon. Expect variable winds south from Ballina for much of the day.

A small trailing south swell may build across the Mid North Coast into the afternoon but I don’t think we’ll see much more than the odd 2ft set at south facing beaches after lunch.  

So on the balance, you’ll be forgiven for ignoring the coast this weekend. It’s not a great outlook at all.

Next week (Jan 1st onwards)

Sunday’s late building distant E’ly swell should linger (if it arrives at all) through Monday before easing Tuesday. There’s low confidence for occasional 2ft+ sets at exposed beaches, more likely on the Sunny Coast than anywhere else, with smaller size to the south, and easing size from Tuesday. Winds will be tricky at this time, probably variable though with risk of redeveloping northerlies. 

Looking to the south, and the parent low to Saturday’s late S’ly change will be poorly aligned for our coast, but we should see a small associated long period S’ly swell build through Monday afternoon (Mid North Coast) and Tuesday (remainder of Northern NSW coasts), exclusive to south swell magnets. 

Most beaches will be lucky to see anything at all, but a couple of locations may pick up some stray 2ft+ sets. However, it’s a low percentage event though so I certainly wouldn’t rack up any mileage looking for waves.  

Note: the models aren’t picking up this swell at all, but remember last week’s south swell that produced 2-3ft sets across the region? That also flew under the models’ radar (but not mine). So, keep your eyes open for signs of activity.

A second, stronger series of Southern Ocean lows will track below Tasmania around Sunday and Monday, generating a slightly better south swell likely to arrive around Thursday. This may punch slightly higher (2-3ft at a handful of south swell magnets south of Byron) but on the balance it’s not worth getting too excited about.

Elsewhere, the weekend’s trough will move east early next week and meander about the Tasman Sea for a few days, though model guidance suggests it’ll never develop any favourable well generating characteristics (for our coast, anyway). 

Otherwise, the synoptic charts remain benign into the long term which suggests an extended period of minor activity for our coastline. Let’s see how things are looking on Friday.