South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 13th December)

Best Days: Most days should have good to very good waves about the open beaches. Biggest on Friday. Only region with difficult winds will be the Mid North Coast; elsewhere light/variable with sea breezes. 

Recap: Small trade swells built across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW Tuesday, reaching a peak late afternoon and early this morning with weak though peaky 2-3ft sets. A small south swell has graced south swell magnets south of Byron Bay. 

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This week (Dec 14th - 15th)

The small trade swell seen over the last 36 hours is on the way out, but will be replaced through Thursday with a fresh E’ly groundswell, generated by a broad E’ly dip NE of New Zealand earlier this week.

It’s hard to pin down the precise timing of these distant swells, because there are no wave buoys between the swell source and the mainland to verify its progress. As such we’ll have to keep a close eye on the cams and buoys. 

Based on model guidance alone, we should see a broad plateau through Friday and very early Saturday, though Thursday should see a definitive increase throughout the day. If you had to hedge your bets, the early session Thursday may come in undersized, but there should still be some decent waves on offer and we'll be on the upwards phase of the event which is usually the best time to be hitting the water for these kinds of swells. 

At its peak, surf size should reach 3-4ft at most open beaches, though the sets will be very inconsistent. Expect smaller surf running down the points.

As for conditions, fortunately most coasts north of Coffs are looking at mainly light variable winds and sea breezes. 

An approaching trough across Southern NSW will however freshen N’ly winds across the Mid North Coast, reaching maximum strength through Friday. There’s a chance for an early light NW breeze here but in general you’ll have to tuck inside a sheltered northern corner south from Yamba. 

This weekend (Dec 16th - 17th)

A stalled trough will linger off the Southern NSW coast over the weekend, maintaining northerly winds south from Coffs but resulting in a continuation of light variable winds and afternoon sea breezes throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW.

Friday’s long range E’ly groundswell will slowly subside through this period so you’ll have to make the most of Saturday morning for the biggest and best waves.

We should see very inconsistent 3-4ft sets at open beaches easing to 2-3ft throughout the day, with Sunday easing from 2-3ft to 2ft. It’ll be smaller running down the points but there’ll be fun options just about everywhere. Just keep an eye on those winds in the south. 

Next week (Dec 18th onwards)

In Monday’s notes I mentioned that the long term charts had a multitude of exciting possibilities into the long term period. 

Not much much has changed since then - we have nothing specific to gravitate towards, but the end of the model runs are becoming quite active through the Coral Sea, South Pacific, Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean - this doesn’t happen very often (normally, one or perhaps two basins will show signs of increasing activity).

Anyway, it’s still early days but the pre-Christmas period is certainly looking positive for East Coast surfers. Hopefully I’ll have something to hone in on in Friday’s updated forecast.