South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd November)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: fun beachies with a small east swell and generally light winds in the north (periods of onshores in the south). Tues: poss brief solid S'ly swell for Northern NSW (not much in SE Qld). Wed/Thurs: combo of S'ly groundswell and short range S/SE swell with S'ly winds, best suited to outer Gold Coast points. 

Recap: A large S’ly swell provided great waves across Northern NSW on Thursday, around 6ft+ south of Byron and 3-5ft elsewhere. North of the border, the outer Gold Coast points managed 2ft+ sets with bigger 3-4ft waves at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches. The Sunny Coast came in a little smaller. Winds were light in many areas for much of the day. Today we’ve seen a rapidly easing south swell from 4ft (south of Byron), and a small building E’ly swell that’s now providing 2-3ft sets across most coasts, marginally bigger south from Yamba. Early light winds are however freshening from the north. 

New E'ly swell at Coolum

New E'ly swell at Narrowneck

This weekend and beyond (Nov 2nd onwards)

*today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s away*

Don’t expect much leftover south swell into Saturday.

The only real swell source for the weekend will be the existing E’ly swell, which should maintain 2-3ft surf both days across most coasts, if anything the upper side throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, and the lower side south from about Ballina. 



Winds look generally OK across SE Qld and most of Far Northern NSW; mainly light and variable with sea breezes both days. 

South of Ballina though, we will be at a greater risk of slightly stronger onshores - initially a shallow S’ly change overnight and into Saturday morning, then freshening SE tending E’ly winds from late Saturday through Sunday as a small ridge transits off the coast and a trough starts to develop across Southern NSW. There’ll probably be periods in the mix with light winds, but just don’t be terribly surprised if the onshore springs up all of a sudden.

A small new south swell is also expected on Sunday south of Byron, originating from gale force W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait tonight. But, it won’t offer any more size than the pre-existing E’ly swell.  

Next week is very interesting.

A small undercurrent of long range E’ly swell will persist for the first half of next week, originating from the same trades responsible for our current swell - they will gradually weaken over the coming days but still remain active enough to maintain small levels of energy for a few more days yet. So this should keep open beaches rideable through the early to middle part of the week.

A strong front rounding the Tasmanian corner tonight will kick up a better S’ly groundswell for Monday across Northern NSW, with decent sets in the 3ft+ range though mainly confined to south swell magnets south of Byron. Expect much smaller surf elsewhere.

But! Monday’s winds look really dicey, with the trough off Southern NSW expected to instigate a Tasman Low by the afternoon. Strengthening N’ly winds will reach gale force throughout the afternoon, so if you want to capitalise on this south swell you’ll have to hit up a protected northern corner. Or, aim for a morning paddle when winds will be lighter and possibly more N/NW.

The outlook for Tuesday is really tricky. We’re likely to see storm force S’ly winds occupy the waters adjacent the Southern NSW coast on Monday evening, but this low will move quickly to the east, so any south swell see from it - on Tuesday - will be short lived. Though, it could possibly become large for a brief period of at south swell magnets in Northern NSW.

Adding in another tricky factor is the low’s close proximity to the mainland, and thus its location inside the Hunter curve as it reaches maturity. Don’t be surprised if we see 6ft sets at south swell magnets for a brief period, but with fresh S’ly winds you’ll have to hit up protected spots anyway.  And there won't be much size north of the border either. 

Of much greater interest to us is a series of strong fronts pushing north from polar latitudes around the same time, underneath Tasmania. Whilst not offering quite as much size potential as Tuesday’s swell from the Tasman Low, the groundswell quality will be much higher and we’ll probably see Wednesday and Thursday holding around 4-5ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron, smaller elsewhere. Small waves should also push across the outer SE Qld points too. 

Additionally, a building ridge of high pressure in the Tasman Sea will concurrently strengthen S/SE winds across SE Qld, generating some small but useful short range swell for the region. It won’t be terribly large, and the only surfable options will be at the outer points, but it’s a heck of a lot better than the typical November northerly routine. In fact, this ridge may hold into the weekend, deliver an extended small summer trade swell right through the weekend and the early part of next week throughout SE Qld. 

And if you enjoy the fantasy charts beyond 10 days, check the WAMS for a tropical surprise north of New Zealand on Thursday. We can only dream, eh?

See you Monday!