South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 1st November)

Best Days: Thurs: strong S'ly swell though patchy size distribution - large sets at south swell magnets south of Byron but only small at most SE Qld breaks, biggest in the a'noon. Fri: peaky combo of building E'ly swell and easing S'ly swell. Sat/Sun: steady E'ly swell, tricky winds both days but there'll be pockets of favourable conditions.  

Recap: Tuesday’s N’ly windswell didn’t amount to much, just 1-2ft at exposed spots ahead of the advancing southerly change. A short range southerly swell built in its wake though no great quality occured. Today we’ve seen a stronger S’ly groundswell fill across Northern NSW with sets around 3-5ft, though it’s very small in SE Qld due to the direction. Winds were light NW early but are now fresh N/NE as a Tasman Low approaches the Southern NSW coast.

Decent S'ly sets at D'Bah Wednesday morning

This week and weekend (Nov 2nd onwards)

*today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s away*

No major change to the notes issues Monday. I'll address each swell seperately:

(1) Powerful S’ly swells will push across Northern NSW on Thursday, originating from the strongest part of the current Tasman Low. 

However the source of this swell is a difficult S/SW fetch located close to the Southern NSW coast, certainly not aimed perfectly within our swell window and with a lot of spread required to make it back to the mainland. This means we’ll see a very large variation in size across the region - some locations (south of Byron) should see 6ft, maybe even some 6-8ft sets, but a lot of this swell will bypass the coast - so expect much smaller surf at locations not directly open to the south. Even more so, across the greater SE Qld breaks - I’m still not confident on size from this event, but inconsistent 2ft+ sets at the outer points seems most likely as the swell reaches a peak, reaching 3-4ft+ at exposed northern ends. 

Also, expect a delay on this new swell in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW.

It’ll building early across the Mid North Coast and peak around lunchtime, and the Far Northern NSW/SE Qld coast should see a peak late in the day (so, early morning may be undersized, north from Yamba). Winds look good on Thursday though, light and variable with sea breezes. Perhaps a slight surface wobble early morning from today’s N’lies, but improving mid-morning ahead of a few afternoon bumps with the sea breeze. Keep an eye on the comments below for more info as it comes to hand.

Thursday’s south swell will then fade rapidly through Friday. Early morning should see some 3-4ft+ sets at south facing beaches between Coffs and Byron (smaller to the south, and much smaller north of the border).

(2) The expected E’ly swell is still on track, and should arrive throughout Thursday before showing strongly on Friday, and persisting (though marginally easing) through Saturday.

Set waves will initially be biggest across the Mid North Coast (owing to the fetch alignment) but it’ll gradually even up thanks to the supporting ridge extending further south across the South Pacific. Expect 3ft+ sets in the south by Friday, a little smaller to the north (esp Sunny Coast) but likely to hold an inconsistent 2-3ft across most beaches over the weekend. Steadily easing from Monday onwards but likely to provide inconsistent just-rideable action through the first half of next week.

(3) Winds are tricky throughout this period. They’ll be mainly light in the mornings, tending N’ly Friday and Saturday across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW,  but a shallow S’ly change is expected across the Mid North Coast Saturday afternoon. E’ly winds are expected on Sunday - possibly light and variable through the morning, but restrengthening into the afternoon and veering NE overnight.

(5) Strengthening N’ly winds will wipe out most locations Monday as a new Tasman Low develops off the coast. This may generate a short lived but solid short-range S’ly swell for Northern NSW on Tuesday. Unlikely to favour SE Qld with any major size though.

(7) A better succession of strong Southern Ocean fronts will contribute an extended period of solid southerly swell for Northern NSW through the remainder of next week and the weekend. Again, remaining only small in SE Qld.