South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th October)

Best Days: Tues: brief early window of small peaky N'ly swell across the southern Gold/Tweed Coasts. Wed: peaky S'ly swell in Northern NSW (small in SE Qld) with early light winds. Thurs: strong S'ly groundswell in Northern NSW, though much smaller in SE Qld. Fri: fun combo of easing S'ly and building E'ly swells, though N'lies will spoil it at some stage. Sat/Sun: fun leftover E'ly swell.  

Recap: Most coasts saw very little surf over the weekend, however Northern NSW did pick up a small pulse of SE swell. Wave heights built to 2-3ft across the Mid North Coast throughout the day but surf size was smaller as you headed north from about Coffs. This minor swell then eased through Sunday. Today we’ve got very little surf and strengthening northerly winds. 

This week and weekend (Oct 26 onwards)

*today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s away*

We’ve got a very complex week ahead, with around six individual swell sources - one out of the north, two out of the east and three out of the south.

First up, today’s freshening N’ly airstream will generate a peaky N’ly windswell for exposed regions overnight. However, an advancing southerly change will disrupt this fetch in the early hours of Tuesday morning, and, being so close to the mainland, will result in a rapid drop in size shortly thereafter.

We should see up to 3ft from this source at exposed north facing spots - upper end of this size along the southern Gold, Tweed and Byron Coasts - but unfortunately, maximum surf size will occur overnight tonight. 

As such, expect a rapid drop in size throughout Tuesday morning. Most NE facing beaches should see 1-2ft sets, and if we're lucky we'll see up to 2-3ft across exposed north swell magnets across the southern Gold, Tweed and Byron Coasts. But it'll be fading quickly, and with fresh to strong S’ly winds kicking in early morning (slightly delayed across SE Qld, esp the Sunshine Coast) you will want to make it quick.

This southerly change will be related to the early stages of a developing Tasman Low east of Bass Strait on Tuesday. We’ve got three distinct swell sources on the cards from it:

1. solid but poor quality windswell building Tuesday in the wake of the change, 
2. better, slightly longer period S’ly swell on Wednesday, originating from strong to gale force S/SW winds off Southern NSW on Tuesday
3. large S’ly groundswell Thursday, originating from the core of the Tasman Low as it reaches a peak off Southern NSW on Wednesday 

The complexity this week is that each fetch will progressively move closer to the mainland, aka slightly less favourably positioned inside our swell window. In fact Thursday’s south swell - the biggest of the lot - will actually be generated by SW gales off Southern NSW - the swell will actually have to bend back into the coast to make landfall. 

And this creates plenty of uncertainty with regards to the local swell potential. On top of that, local winds look very tricky too.

Tuesday isn’t worth worrying about due to the local winds. Only sheltered SE Qld points will be clean and for the most part, they’ll be too small to offer anything worthwhile.

On the other hand, Wednesday will see light and variable winds across many coasts, in fact we could see a temporary return to northerlies about SE Qld, thanks to the Tasman Low tightening and approaching the Southern NSW coast. South facing beaches south of Byron should see 4-5ft+ sets on Wednesday (smaller elsewhere) but across SE Qld it’ll be small on the outer points - maybe some stray 2ft sets - and up to 3ft+ across exposed northern ends. Get in early for the best waves.

Thursday is the pick of the period, though I fear that the position and alignment of the fetch will majorly restrict wave heights north of the border (see image below), in fact we could see some funky discrepancies right across Northern NSW too.

It’ll be a strong south swell, with south facing beaches south of Byron likely to push upwards of 6ft, maybe 6-8ft at some very reliable south swell magnets, and there should be more than enough size for sheltered points (the solid period should override some of the directional deficiencies, though they will still be much smaller). Light variable winds and sea breezes will keep things clean for the most part.

But north from the Tweed Coast we’re likely to see a dramatic drop in size into SE Qld (plus, a slightly delayed arrival time). At the stage I’m inclined to go for occasional 2ft+ sets across the outer points but with much larger waves across exposed northern ends, up to 3-4ft+, but very inconsistent at times. The Sunny Coast will likely be a little smaller again.

This swell will then ease rapidly through Friday.

But!

Whilst all of this will have been going on, a small new E’ly swell will have started to fill into the coast. We’ll actually pick up the first signs of this swell on Wednesday with a slow building trend on Thursday ahead of a peak in size on Friday.

This swell will have been generated by a stationary high pressure system east of New Zealand, and a trough extending south of New Caledonia from today. The fetch will be aimed mainly towards Northern NSW, so we’re looking at 3-4ft sets here at the height of the swell on Friday, with slightly smaller surf north of about Ballina or Byron (say, 3ft). 

Unfortunately, winds are expected to freshen from the north during Friday so you’ll have to aim for a morning surf for the best waves (there’ll be an equal level of leftover S’ly swell in the water south of the border too). 

This east swell will then ease a little and hold steady through the weekend in the 3ft range, thanks to broad trades behind the trough in the northern Tasman this week. In fact we’ll probably see the coastal balance tipped, with SE Qld picking up the upper end of this size range as wave heights fall a little across the Mid North Coast (thanks to the alignemt of the trades in the South Pacific). Early light wind are expected on Saturday ahead of a fresh S’ly change though the afternoon, holding into Sunday.