South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 25th October)

Best Days: Fri: early offshores and a peaky N'ly windswell at exposed north facing beaches, biggest on southern Gold and Tweed Coasts. Sat: average, easing short range S'ly swell, biggest south of the border and exposed northern ends in SE Qld. Lumpy but improving with winds tending light and variable. 

Recap: Tuesday morning delivered fun peaky waves with light winds and an easing mix of south and east swells, the former being the largest and thus producing the biggest waves south of the border. Afternoon winds swung to the NE. Today we’ve seen very small residual swells and strengthening N’ly winds. 

This week (Oct 24 - Oct 27)

Thursday is essentially a write-off, with no new swell and strengthening northerly winds in response to an evolving surface-trough-cum-weak-Tasman Low off the Southern NSW coast. These winds will generate a low quality windswell for exposed north facing beaches. 

However, the latest guidance has ramped up the strength of these local winds and - because of a well timed offshore wind change due Friday morning - has upped the surf potential for the last day of the working week. 

As the Tasman Low develops into Friday, it’ll freshen SE winds about Southern NSW, but with the axis of the trough initially positioned across the Lower Mid North Coast, we’ll see winds veering NW across SE Qld, then W’ly (then variable into the afternoon).

South from about Yamba, winds will be W’ly tending SW though a developing S/SW gales are expected by lunchtime here (early morning across the Lower Mid North Coast) as the low consolidates and moves further east. These southerlies will extend north to the border by Friday evening.

Thursday’s northerly flow should generate 2-3ft of peaky windswell for exposed locations overnight Thursday and into Friday morning. It’ll be biggest right on dawn, and only at locations ell exposed to the north - maximum size probably around the southern Gold Coast and Tweed Coasts, with smaller surf elsewhere (including the Sunny Coast, due to a shorter fetch length). But, it’ll be well worth checking out - I’ll update some more info on this tomorrow (in the comments below) as it’s a dynamic system and small changes in strength and timing could affect the surf potential.

This local swell will ease pretty quickly during the day and the return S’ly flow will generate a low quality windswell for south facing beaches (south of Byron) into the afternoon. It won't be worth working around though.

This weekend (Oct 23 - Oct 24)

The weekend still looks pretty ordinary. 

The Tasman Low isn’t expected to develop into a major system at all; the main swell producer this weekend will be the fetch trailing Friday’s change, and it’ll be short lived - easing rapidly overnight into Saturday, allowing winds to become light and variable through the morning. NE sea breezes are even quite likely by the afternoon.

South facing beaches south of Byron should see peaky, disjointed 3ft+ sets early, easing during the day, but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere and especially north of the border. Aim for an exposed beach and keep your expectations low. 

Early light winds are then expected early Sunday ahead of a redeveloping N’ly airstream. Unfortunately, with no new swell on offer we’ll be looking for scraps about the exposed beaches, biggest south of the border. 

As such, if you have some flexibility this weekend aim for a surf some time on Saturday, probably mid-late morning to allow the southerly wobble to ease off at exposed beaches in Northern NSW.

Next week (Oct 25 onwards)

Freshening N’ly winds are expected throughout Monday with no new swell, ahead of a gusty overnight S’ly change and a rapid increase in short range southerly swell as a cold front moves into the southern Tasman Sea. 

Average quality southerly windswell is expected on Tuesday across Northern NSW in the wake of this system, with gusty S’ly winds accompanying. At this stage no great size is expected and with a low swell period (due to the low fetch) there won’t be enough size for protected points, or most SE Qld beaches either. Keep your expectations low. 

A small Tasman Low is then expected to form east of Sydney into Tuesday and this may renew larger - but equally wind affected - short range S/SE swell across Northern NSW through Wednesday. However at this stage it’s hard to be confident in any major quality from this system due to its short fetch length and close proximity to the mainland. We should see some small waves across the outer SE Qld points though.

This low may dominate the western Tasman Sea's synoptics through the middle of the week, but we need a few more days to firm up the guidance. Stay tuned to Friday’s update for more. But the short version right now is that I can't see there being quality surf to drop tools around.

Of much more interest is a slow moving high modelled east of New Zealand from next Sunday onwards, which is expected to broaden a decent E’ly fetch on its northern flank. This is shaping up to develop into a decent source of sustained E’ly swell through the middle to latter part of next week and the following weekend, though it’s still too early to put a size range on it. Early indications suggest a peak in the 3-5ft range at exposed beaches, centered around next Saturday, give or take.

More on this in Friday’s update.