South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 20th October)

Best Days: Sat: very early beachies across SE Qld, but you've gotta be quick to beat the S'ly change. Outer (sheltered) points should have options into the afternoon. Mon/Tues: small peaky combo of swells with early light winds. 

Recap: Stacks of easing east swell for the last few days though conditions have been a little ordinary - moderating E’ly winds Thursday, early light and variable tending N’ly winds today. Certainly nothing spectacular though it’s gotta be noted that today is the sixth consecutive day of waves at Noosa, which is very good for this time of the year. 

Sixth day straight of waves at Noosa - not bad for October!

This weekend (Oct 21 - Oct 22)

The models have slightly sped up - and strengthened - Saturday’s southerly change. It’ll be into the Mid North Coast tonight, and should be close to the border around sunrise, reaching the Sunny Coast mid-late morning.

We’ll see a solid local southerly swell build across south facing beaches south of Byron during the day (choppy 4-5ft+ sets by mid-late afternoon), but quality will low at exposed beaches and the short period won’t allow for a lot of size at protected spots. They will however also pick up some easing E’ly swell (inconsistent 2-3ft early, smaller later) so you’ll be able to find something rideable if you’re keen. 

SE Qld should have a better window of opportunity very early morning, especially the Sunny Coast which will see a delayed arrival of the S’ly change compared ot the Gold Coast. Expect easing 2-3ft+ surf at open beaches with early light offshore winds - perhaps with a slight northerly wobble through the lineup - but well worth a gander. 

The afternoon will only be suitable for outer points offering a degree of protection from the gusty S’ly breeze. Easing E’ly swells will mix in with building short range S’ly swells, though not much of the southerly energy will make its way north of the border, away from exposed northern ends. 

Saturday’s brief short range S’ly swell will ease rapidly into Sunday, and southerly winds will linger about the coast. We may see brief periods of early SW winds but on the whole conditions will be a little ordinary and there won’t be enough size for protected breaks in Northern NSW to offer anything amazing. 

Expect smaller residual swell across SE Qld too. The outer Gold Coast points should have some small rideable waves - just - but compared to the size of the last few days it won’t excite many surfers. 

Next week (Oct 23 onwards)

A mix of swells will keep the open beaches active through the start of next week, and relatively light variable winds should allow for clean conditions.

A brief restrengthening of the trades north of New Zealand yesterday has generated a small E’ly swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Monday and Tuesday. No major size nor consistency is expected but we should pick up occasional 2-3ft sets at exposed spots. 

Also in the mix south of the border will be a small long period S’ly swell, generated by the parent low to today’s change. This system is traversing the waters south of Tasmania right now, but it’s not very well aligned either. Some exposed south swell magnets south of Byron may pick up some inconsistent 3ft sets throughout the day but this swell will largely bypass many parts of the coast.

There’ll also be some small, short/mid range S’ly swell in the water, extending from a front crossing the Tasmanian region later Saturday, driving SW gales east from Bass Strait into Sunday (and arriving across Northern NSW later Monday and into Tuesday). Again, this will only favour south swell magnets south of Byron and size will probably be smaller than that of the inconsistent longer period energy.

Freshening NE winds later Tuesday will swing N’ly on Wednesday, but without enough strength for any new local windswell. We’ll probably see northerlies persist into Thursday - stronger, with better surf potential - and a chance for a peaky clean windswell early Friday as a low develops off southern NSW, swinging winds to the NW then W. This is an overly optimistic scenario at this point in time though.

Otherwise, there are no other notable, confident swell sources for the long term period. 

The troughy system modelled for the Northern Tasman Sea doesn’t look very well aligned for us (and will transition quickly through the swell window anyway), and a series of polar lows skirting the ice shelf south of the Tasman Sea from Sunday onwards will be too small in size and too far from the mainland (and too poorly aligned) to generate anything meaningful for our region. A small S/SE swell is possible later in the week or early next weekend, but it’s not worth working around.

I will however be keeping an eye on a modelled coastal trough expected off the Southern NSW coast around Thursday, which (as mentioned above) has the potential to develop into a closed system, or possibly an East Coast Low. It’s a long time away but next Friday and Saturday are certainly on the cards for a punchy local swell event in Northern NSW. More on this in Monday’s update.

Have a great weekend!