South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th October)

Best Days: Hard to think about the possibility of 'best days' when it's likely most locations will be horribly blown out. But yeah, there'll be stacks of swell from Sunday thru' Friday. 

Recap: Thursday offered little in the way of rideable swell for our region. Today we’ve seen not a lot of short range SE swell (as per yesterday’s comments in Wednesday’s Forecaster Notes) but a handful of exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW have picked up slow, infrequent 2ft+ sets (see Coffs Harbour surfcam grab, below). However everywhere else is tiny. 

Small S'ly swell in Coffs this afternoon

This weekend (Oct 14 - Oct 15)

Saturday looks very ordinary with no new swell and early light winds swinging gusty SE as a building ridge of high pressure pushes up the coast.

The strongest winds will initially influence the Mid North Coast up to about Yamba by the afternoon, late afternoon may see some local windswell in this region but it’s not worth getting excited about.

Surf size will remain tiny elsewhere with light variable winds ahead of the change. There’s a lot of uncertainty as to its timing; we may not see the SE breeze kick in north of the border until after dark. 

Sunday will then see freshening E/SE winds all day and building short range swells. Our model only has 3ft for the Gold Coast by 6pm but it’s likely we’ll be well north of this (as local winds could be 20-30kts all day). However, there’ll only be a handful of locations that’ll cope with this wind direction. With some luck we'll see more SE than E/SE which will allow the southern points to offer semi-decent waves. 

The biggest surf on Sunday will be found between about Coffs Harbour and the border as this is where the initial fetch will be aimed: 4-5ft+ sets are likely at exposed spots by late afternoon with smaller surf along the points.

Expect slightly smaller surf south of this region, and more notably smaller surf to the north (i.e. mainly the Sunshine Coast, possibly the Gold Coast). It's worth pointing out that the developing trough is expected to form a focal point off the Fraser Coast on Sunday night and this will result in very strong winds kicking in across the Sunshine Coast later Sunday, and this may provide a rapid increase in size through the afternoon. I’ll update more in the comments below as I come across more data. 

In any case, on the whole, Sunday looks rather forgettable for most regions, but there is certainly the chance for brief, isolated regions of light variable winds right across Northern NSW and SE Qld coast as the trough deepens. But if I had to hedge by bets, I’d probably consider it to be a day with very limited surf prospects in most regions. Only the southern Gold Coast points are probably worth considering. 

Next week (Oct 16 onwards)

Over the last day or so, the models have been firming up an approximate focus region for the SE Qld coastal trough. This is in and around the Fraser Island region, and because the strongest winds associated with these patterns are found on the trough's southern flank, this means the Sunshine Coast is on target for a pasting. Maybe the Gold and Tweed Coasts too. 

And the wave models are reflecting this - our Gold Coast data point has upgraded the size potential for Monday afternoon to 8-10ft (!) around 6pm (see right).  

The problem with these kinds of systems is that the greater SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts can’t really hand this kind of size, nor the associated gale force E’ly winds. There is on average, about one surfable location per hundred kilometres of coastline, which means it’s hard to get too enthusiastic about surfing prospects. 

Anyway, I think the models are overcalling Monday’s size - yes, it’ll be big (north of 6ft if the wind holds above 30kts) but the main problem with the long term forecast period - for next week - is that the Tasman high pressure system contributing to this swell event is expected to set up a blocking pattern, remaining very slow moving and delivering six consecutive days of at least fresh E’ly winds (if the model guidance is to be believed), if not stronger.

Sure, we may see pockets of opportunity, especially further south where the ridge will have a little less influence - but without a synoptic offshore it’s going to be hard for conditions for improve to any great degree, inside those brief windows of relaxed conditions. 

Anyway, there’s no point going into specifics, as we have a relatively linear swell trend - up rapidly Monday to a peak that’s hard to quantify right now, but late afternoon 6ft+ sets seems plausible at exposed locations in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, smaller on the points. 

From Tuesday morning onwards, we'll see a combo of plateauing/slowly easing easterly energy through until next weekend. All accompanied by a synoptics easterly flow of some description, tending NE across the Mid North Coast from Wednesday onwards. 

I’m sure that we’ll see a change in the outlook next week but right now it’s pretty hard to spot potential windows of opportunity. So check back over the weekend for any updated comments, and otherwise, batten down the hatches for an extended period of punchy onshore surf and some useful rainfall totals. 

Have a great weekend!