South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 2nd October)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: brief windows of light winds in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with a peaky E/NE swell. Sat/Sun: strong building S/SE swell, good points Saturday under a S'ly flow, everywhere else Sunday with light winds. Much smaller in SE Qld though.

Recap: Saturday delivered small residual S’ly swell to 2ft+ at south friendly beaches in Northern NSW, and not a lot elsewhere. Most of Sunday saw tiny residual energy persisting about the region but a strong new S’ly groundswell rocketed up the coast in the afternoon, reaching 4-6ft at some south facing beaches across the Mid North Coast. This swell peaked overnight and has eased steadily today, though south facing beaches south of the border have still managed some 4ft sets. Elsewhere, we’re seeing building E/NE swells in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW as a local fetch develops in conjunction with a slowly deepening trough off the Southern Qld coast. 

This week (Oct 3 - Oct 6)

Model guidance has slightly weakened the developing trough, though we’re still looking at a strong short range E/NE swell peaking on Tuesday before easing on Wednesday. 

A small low may form within the trough line, off the Gold/Tweed Coasts on Tuesday afternoon - this should bring about a period of light variable winds to a small stretch of coast - but without a synoptic offshore it’s hard to imagine anywhere cleaning up dramatically from what’s expected to resemble a partially cooked dog’s breakfast early Tuesday. 

The SE Qld will see the most size from this swell, probably in the 4ft+ range at open beaches, perhaps a smidge more if we’re lucky. The models are favouring the Sunny Coast for the most size and this looks quite plausible, though with N/NE winds likely to persist here it may largely go to waste. Smaller surf is expected with increasing southerly latitude from the border. 

That being said, keep a close eye on the surfcam and AWS networks as these kinds of unstable patterns often produce windows of opportunity that the model guidance simply can’t pin down. If I were a betting man I’d be most comfortable in the chances of a fun though lumpy Tuesday afternoon session on the Gold Coast.

South from about Byron we’re likely to see N/NE winds for much of Tuesday, with smaller surf being a combo of building E/NE energy and inconsistent though steady S’ly groundswell, generated by a strong Southern Ocean frontal pattern late last week (which delivered four consecutive days of unreal surf to the SA/Vic and southern Tas coasts).  We’ll see maybe very intermittent 2-3ft+ sets from this source through Tuesday, Wednesday before easing Thursday. It's not worth working around though.

But back to the local E/NE swell. It’ll ease through Wednesday, with early 3-4ft sets across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW and light variable winds. Slightly smaller surf is expected south from about Yamba or Coffs with winds likely to retain some degree of north. So, aim for northern corners here for the best waves. 

The rest of the week looks pretty average with freshening northerly winds and easing swells from the S and E/NE. Thursday morning is your best chance for a wave (most size, best conditions) and by Friday we’ll be feeling like the northerly plague has returned yet again, with only small waves on hand and very ordinary surface conditions. 

Looking elsewhere, and a deep Tasman Low is expected to form of Tasmania late Thursday, and although we won’t see a solid swell from it until Saturday, it will push a southerly change into the Mid North Coast late Friday. This time frame will be worth monitoring in future model updates as it could open a little window of early forerunners, though confidence is only low for now, especially with the local wind outlook. 

Lastly, a very small long period S/SE swell is also possible around Friday from a polar low developing off the idea shelf (south of NZ today) but at this stage it looks like most of the fetch will form over the ice pack so swell potential is low. I’ll have a better idea on Wednesday by which time we’ll have some satellite passes. Certainly not worth worrying about too much though.

This weekend (Oct 7 - Oct 8)

This Tasman Low is the dominant feature in the forecast charts, with a large S/SE swell building Saturday and then easing slowly throughout Sunday.  

It’s still early days but we are currently on target for 6ft, maybe even 6-8ft surf across exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW (south of Byron) with much smaller surf in SE Qld; 3ft sets across the outer Gold Coast points, and bigger waves at northern ends in the 3-5ft range. Slightly smaller surf is likely across the Sunny Coast, especially at protected locations. 

Sunday morning looks like the pick of the weekend as the swell will have plateaued, but more importantly, the low will have moved away for the coast, resulting in light offshore winds. Saturday should have good options across the regional points under a moderate to fresh S’ly breeze. Expect smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure.  

Next week (Oct 9 onwards)

Nothing significant showing up on the long term charts for now.