South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th September)

Best Days: Thurs: easing NE swell and light winds across the Mid North Coast in the a'noon. Fri: small NE swell across Gold/Tweed, maybe Sunny Coasts with light winds. Small south swell across Northern NSW. Sun: building S'ly swell in Northern NSW, easing Mon. Wed onwards: small trade swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. 

Recap: Easing NE swells and light winds provided some OK lil’ beachies on Tuesday morning, before the swell faded into the afternoon. Today saw a small S’ly swell push across Northern NSW with early light winds freshening from the NE throughout the day. 

This week (Sep 26 - Sep 29)

The forecast still isn't generally flash. But there are small windows of opportunity in and amongst the local noise.

Freshening NE winds overnight will veer N’ly into Thursday morning then N/NW by lunchtime, delivering seasonally hot conditions across most of the region (inland from the coast). 

These winds will generate some local windswell but quality won’t be high, though a front pushing off the coast to the south will create light variable winds across the Northern NSW coast up to about Evans Head or Ballina through the afternoon. North from here we’ll see N’ly winds restrengthening into the afternoon.

As such, the Mid North Coast will see peaky N/NE swells and possibly good conditions through the middle to latter part of the day though it’s hard to be confident there’ll be a lot of quality on offer. NE facing beaches could see 3ft sets (likely to ease through the arvo), with smaller surf elsewhere - today’s S’ly swell will slowly ease through Thursday, so northern corners may have a few clean though blustery options early under the N'ly breeze.

North from Ballina, the persistent northerlies at strength all day will really create some headaches across SE Qld. But it will generate peaky N’ly wind waves and they’ll push into the 3ft+ range late afternoon (a little smaller across the Sunny Coast). Your only hope is to fluke into a period where the wind swings N/NW, opening up (smaller) options at protected spots or back beaches. Locations not open to the north will be much smaller, and there won’t be a heck of a lot of size early either. 

Unfortunately, this local swell source will push outside of our swell window overnight Thursday, leading to a rapid decrease in surf size through Friday, especially across the Mid North Coast. The Gold, Tweed and possibly even Sunshine Coasts have the most size potential for Friday morning with occasional 2ft+ sets at north-facing swell magnets, but everywhere else will be considerably small due to the steep swell direction and short period. Conditions are looking favourable for the morning with generally light winds, ahead of moderate to fresh afternoon sea breezes.

There’s one other swell on the charts for Friday, mentioned in Monday’s notes, generated by a front tracking east of Tasmania on Thursday. However, the latest models have weakened this fetch so I’ve slightly downgraded size expectations to 2ft at south facing beaches south of Byron on Friday.

But interestingly, the models have wiped this swell train for Friday and replaced it with a small long period swell - actually modelled to arrive on Thursday afternoon (leading edge showing peak swell periods of 17.1 seconds at Coffs Harbour around noon). 

This (modelled) long range southerly energy slipped through the net in Monday’s forecast notes, probably due to the models showing a stronger post-Tasmanian frontal system (and thus masking the source). However without enough time to do a proper hindcast, I’m going to discount it as a notable swell source - Craig mentioned this swell in his Victorian notes today but it’s only generated 2ft+ surf across the Torquay stretch and is therefore unlikely to kick up much size across the Northern NSW region due to the further travel distance and even less favourable coastal alignment. 

It is however hard to completely ignore - for example, 6am on Friday has the long range swell of 0.8m @ 14.6 seconds (in Coffs), which should be worthy of somewhere in the 3ft+ range at south facing beaches - and we’ve had plenty of instances in the past where deep polar lows (such as the one responsible for this modelled long range swell) have punched well above their weight. 

As such, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens - but on the balance I’m in favour of the surf being generally small out of the south on Friday.

This weekend (Sep 30 - Oct 1)

The models have slightly weakened the approaching frontal system for the weekend’s south swell in Northern NSW, compared to Monday. It still looks very large and quite strong, but most of the primary fetch won’t be very aimed within our swell window.

The intense polar low (a long period source for Sunday) has also been shunted slightly west out of our swell window, which diminishes the size potential for Southern NSW.

Regardless, at the moment I think our model is undercalling this swell. We’re looking at small residual swells for most coasts for much of Saturday, building to 2-3ft+ at south facing beaches on Sunday morning, with a late afternoon pulse to 3-4ft (mainly along the Mid North Coast, may be delayed north of Coffs Harbour until overnight). 

Model data’s a little shifty right now but in general we’re looking at OK conditions for the greater weekend. A possible shallow S’ly change is on the cards for Sunday afternoon as a trough pushes off the coast. 

As for SE Qld, aside from a tiny leftover N’ly windswell early Saturday, we’re really not expecting very much size throughout the weekend. Sunday’s S’ly swell may light up exposed northern ends with inconsistent 2ft sets but I wouldn’t hold your breath. 

Next week (Oct 2 onwards)

Sunday’s late S’ly swell should hold into Monday morning before easing throughout the day. This will mainly favour Northern NSW’s south facing beaches with 3-4ft sets, and most of SE Qld won’t see much, if any size (just exposed northern ends). 

SE Qld’s extended run of poor surf may come to an end mid-next week, with a large Tasman High expected to set up a trade flow (remember that phenomena?) across the Southern Coral Sea, which should in turn generate a small trade swell from about Wednesday onwards. No major size is expected - and the models are suggesting winds will be out of the north throughout this time period - but it’s a positive sign to cling on to (if somewhat desperately). 

Elsewhere, strong frontal activity through the Southern Ocean will maintain small southerly energy across Northern NSW through the middle part of next week, ahead of a vigorous front expected to track through the lower Tasman Sea later Tuesday that should set up a bigger south swell for Thursday.

I’ll also be keeping a close eye on a small stationary polar low off the ice shelf, directly south of new Zealand early-mid next week, that may kick up a small long period S/SE groundswell for the end of the week. 

More on this in Friday’s notes.