South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 6th September)

Best Days: Thurs: bigger, stronger S'ly swell across Northern NSW, only small in SE Qld. Fri PM/Sat/Sun: series of large overlapping S'ly swells in Northern NSW, with mainly offshore winds. Generally small in SE Qld though Sunday will become quite sizeable at exposed northern ends with good waves on the outer points. Mon: solid though easing S'ly swell, offshore winds. Small in SE Qld.

Recap: Tuesday offered small leftover NE windswell across a handful of exposed swell magnets, ahead of tiny conditions into the afternoon. Today delivered a small new S’ly swell across Northern NSW, and the Mid North Coast is now starting to see a new pulse of bigger S’ly swell that produced 3-4ft+ sets in Southern NSW this afternoon.

New south swell sarting to show nicely at Coffs Harbour

This week (Sep 5th - 8th)

W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait yesterday and today are setting up yet another strong round of south swell thats due to fill in throughout Thursday, building towards a peak in the afternoon, biggest across the Mid North Coast. 

In fact, we’re looking at overlapping south swells for much of the next five days which creates a degree of uncertainty as to the precise size in the mornings and afternoons. This is because it’s hard to ascertain how the combined swells will perform in the near shore zone - we’re not just assessing the size potential of one swell train and its various phases (up, peak/plateau, down), but the combined phases of simultaneous swells.

Nevertheless, the broad outlook is up throughout Thursday, down temporarily Friday morning (especially the Far North Coast, which may see an easing trend all day), then up again strongly Friday afternoon across the Mid North Coast ahead of a large weekend of southerly swell in Northern NSW, with smaller conditions across SE Qld.

Conditions should remain clean with generally light variable winds in the Far North and SE Qld regions each day, though moderate SW winds will prevail across the Mid North Coast plus afternoon sea breezes.

Thursday should eventually see surf size building to 4-6ft across south facing beaches south of Byron; we’ll see the upper end of this range mainly into the afternoon so expect smaller surf into the morning (mainly the Far North Coast). Expect smaller waves at beaches that are not open to the south.

Across SE Qld, this swell direction won’t favour much of the Gold or Sunshine Coasts. However, a handful of swell exposed northern ends may pick up some 1-2ft waves early, building to 2-3ft+ into the mid-late afternoon. The outer points should see slow, inconsistent sets to 2ft late in the day.

On Friday, we’ll see Thursday’s late peak in size hold for the early session ahead of an easing trend throughout the day (this holding trend will be more prevalent north of about Coffs or Yamba; the Mid North Coast will probably see the easing trend kick in earlier).  

However, a second strong renewal of long period S’ly swell is expected to reach the Mid North Coast through the afternoon and should kick up wave heights into the 4-6ft range at south facing beaches south of Coffs in the hour or two before dark (again, smaller at beaches not completely exposed to the south). 

That being said, I’m not confident on the timing of this pulse so you’ll be well advised to monitor the comments below where I’ll put in observational data as it comes to hand. However there is certainly a much reduced chance that we’ll see an appreciable kick in size before COB across the Far North and SE Qld regions. 

This weekend (Sep 9th - 10th)

The models have moved the weekend’s outlook around since Monday’s notes were written, but the good news is that there’s been no downgrade - in fact we’re looking at even more strong, sizeable south swell for the entire East Coast.

The most powerful front/low in this current progression is expected to now push across Tasmanian longitudes on Friday and will consequently set up a couple of large southerly swells for the weekend, originating from several sources - the fetch trailing the front and also the polar low further south. 

I’m still not confident on the timing specifics (model data now suggests Sunday lunchtime/afternoon will see the biggest and best waves in Northern NSW, upwards of 8ft) but either way we’re looking at 5-6ft surf at south facing beaches south of Byron both days, with an embedded pulse significant higher than this sometime during the weekend (gut feel says early Sunday). 

As per usual it’ll be smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure, however reliable offshore bombies and south swell magnets that focus direct south swells should see occasional 8ft+ bombs.

Across SE Qld, these kinds of southerly groundswells don’t usually perform that well due to the poor alignment. I’m always cautious to not overfroth on the outlook for south swells, because their set waves are usually much less consistent (owing to the swell spread factor) and significant smaller than what’s experienced south of the border.

However, this is one heck of a frontal progression, and aside from the incredible fetch length and surface wind speeds, is the fact that this last sequence will be working on a very active sea state. This should enhance the strength of the swell and ensure a good spread back into SE Qld outer points.

As such I think we’ll see the outer points holding 2ft, maybe 2-3ft for much of the weekend (though very inconsistent at times) with an embedded pulse somewhere on Sunday that could push as high as 3-4ft. Exposed northern ends of the coast will see much bigger waves; generally 3-4ft but Sunday’s pulse could go a couple of feet higher than this. If anything expect slightly smaller surf across the Sunshine Coast.

Conditions should be generally clean with mainly light offshore winds and sea breezes across most coasts; perhaps a little stronger in the south.

Let’s take another pass on Friday with the benefit of the latest model guidance, to nail down the size and timing estimates. 

Next week (Sep 11th onwards)

Strong though easing S’ly swells are expected Monday morning onwards, with 6ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron early morning (smaller elsewhere), and 2ft+ across the outer SE Qld points (3-4ft exposed northern ends), with clean conditions under a weak pressure pattern and thus light winds. Size will ease slowly during the day. 

There’s nothing significant showing up on the long term radar at this stage beyond that, just a couple of minor S’ly swell events. 

See you Friday!