South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 30th August)

Best Days: Thurs: small clean waves on SE Qld points early. Large building S/SE swell across Northern NSW, though wind affected. Only small in SE Qld. Fri: large S/SE swell across Northern NSW, best on SE Qld outer points (tho' much smaller) under S'ly breezes. Sat: clean leftover S/SE tending SE swell with lighter winds. Only small in SE Qld. Sun: early exposed beaches in Northern NSW before N'lies develop.

Recap: It’s been a couple of days of fun clean waves. Tuesday was initially strong out of the south with 6ft+ sets south of Byron and smaller 3ft+ sets at exposed northern ends of the Gold and Sunshine Coast. Size eased steadily during the day. Today we’ve seen rapidly easing leftover S’ly swells but a small building E’ly swell (that appeared throughout Tuesday) and most open beaches are seeing inconsistent 2ft+ waves with clean conditions, even the odd bigger set here and there.

Small Wednesday afternoon E'ly lines at Snapper Rocks

Nice empty peaks at Narrowneck this afternoon

Small Wednesday morning lines at Alex Headland

This week (Aug 31st - 1st Sep)

The current E’ly swell is modeled to hang into Thursday morning of a similar size as per today, before easing slowly throughout the afternoon.

There’s no way of measuring the performance of the approaching tail end of this swell pulse (as we have no physical buoys well east of the Australian mainland to measure it), so we’re just going to have to trust the data and make the most of the early session.

But, options will be limited.

A cold front pushing north across Southern NSW this afternoon will freshen across our region overnight and continue to strengthen through Thursday. As such, only protected southern corners and points will offer clean conditions. 

The fetch trailing the change will be quite strong, linked in with a new Tasman Low that was discussed in Monday’s notes. This low was expected to develop in the central Tasman Sea on Thursday, but over the last 48 hours the models have sped up the evolution of this system and also steered it closer to the coast. It is currently forming E/NE of Tasmania, and will drive southerly gales through our immediate S/SE swell window overnight into Thursday morning, bringing forward the timing of the expected new swell from Fri/Sat to late Thurs/Fri. 

Additionally, as a result of the low being closer to the mainland, the peak surf surf size will be a little bigger than Monday’s notes indicated (which was 6ft+ at south facing beaches, south of Byron).

However, the downside of this system’s close proximity to the mainland is that local conditions will be quite wind affected. The Mid North Coast will see a peak in new groundswell late Thursday, whilst the Far North Coast will see maximum surf size early Friday morning. Expect 6-8ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron - though much smaller ahead of the swell increase early Thursday - and then with size easing later Friday, most notably across the Mid North Coast as the Far North Coast will see a later easing trend. 

SE Qld will also see plenty of swell from this system though the more western position of the low means the resulting swell direction will have more south. As such, the upside of a stronger, closer system (and thus larger waves) may balance out with the additional size loss due to the southerly direction. 

As such I’m going to hold firm with Monday’s estimates and expect a peak on Friday with 2-3ft+ sets across the outer points, with bigger, but very wind affected surf at exposed northern ends around 4-5ft. Expect smaller surf throughout Thursday; initially inconsistent E’ly energy with a late building trend from the south. 

This weekend (Sep 2nd - 3rd)

Saturday is still the pick of the weekend though Sunday morning will have options at exposed beaches. 

With our impending swell event brought forward, and no new swell sources on the cards, we’re looking at a slow easing trend all weekend - however it’ll be a little slower than usual thanks to a persistent SE fetch remaining active throughout Thurs/Fri just off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island. In fact even by Saturday morning there’ll still be a tiny region of leftover gales in the swell window, though it'll rapidly subside during the day. 

Saturday morning will see the most size, anywhere from 4-6ft across south facing beaches between Coffs and Byron, but smaller south to the Mid North Coast (owing to a closer proximity to the easing source).

Across SE Qld, the outer points should see early inconsistent 2ft+ leftovers though exposed northern ends should be somewhere in the 3-4ft+ range at first. Everywhere will ease in size throughout the day, and continue its downwards slide into Sunday.

Saturday’s conditions are looking generally good, mainly light offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes with the direction out of the southern quadrant (i.e. SW early, SE later). 

Sunday should see light W/NW winds early morning with the easing swell but we’ll pick up a freshening N’ly through the afternoon as a series of vigorous fronts approach from the SW. So make it early for the best waves. I doubt there’ll be much surf in SE Qld on Sunday anyway, away from exposed northern ends. 

Next week (Sep 4th onwards)

Monday looks tricky. 

Some regions may see strengthening N’ly winds all day (and a subsequent increase in local windswell) thanks to the approaching fronts, but this is more likely in the north - we may see lighter winds tending offshore further south across the Mid North Coast in response to a pre-frontal trough. I’ll need to reassess on Friday. But either way there won’t be any great swell to speak of. 

Our favourite acute south swell window (eastern Bass Strait) will fire up on Monday, and so Tuesday and Wednesday should see varying degrees of flukey south swell across Northern NSW south swell magnets. It’ll be clean with offshore winds though I doubt we’ll see much, if any swell north of the border.

Another strong front/low in this series is then expected to cross the Tasmanian divide, strengthening southerly gales and building southerly swell through Thursday afternoon and Friday, maybe holding into next weekend too. More on this Friday’s update.