South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 30th June)

Best Days: Sat: small and windy in SE Qld, solid and windy in Northern NSW. Sun: lighter winds and a strong S/SE swell filling in, with fun waves across the outer SE Qld points into the afternoon. Mon/Tues: more S/SE swell with N'ly winds tending W/NW. Lighter in the Far North. Wed/Thurs/Fri: more S'ly swell for Northern NSW.

Recap: Although it's been tiny in SE Qld, there’s been plenty of fun S’ly swell across Northern NSW for the last few days - though periods of northerly winds confirmed the best waves to protected northern ends on Thursday. Today winds have gone W/SW then gusty S’ly, with a strong new S’ly swell yet to show any appreciable size across the Mid North Coast, however we are seeing a small uptick in size across all areas, even exposed south facing beaches on the Gold Coast (like D’Bah, below) were seeing late lines today. 

Late new S'ly lines at D'Bah

This weekend (Jul 1 - 2)

We’ve got a lotta south swell on the way. But, a lotta S/SW wind for Saturday. 

And, there’s essentially two swells on the way - one super direct south swell for Saturday, and a second swell with more S/SE swell for Sunday. This is an important point for SE Qld as I fear that Saturday’s south swell really won’t do much north of the border, and you’ll be best off waiting for Sunday - probably the afternoon.

Saturday’s swell will be generated by developing southerly gales parallel to the NSW coast today. But remember - the East Coast doesn’t run precisely north-south - it’s not far off in Northern NSW, but Southern NSW is more S/SW thru’ N/NE. So parallel fetches are not southerly, they’re S/SW and this additional off-axis alignment means that the swell energy has to bend even further to get into protected southern corners. Or into SE Qld. 

We won’t see any shortage of size south of Byron Bay on Saturday, south facing beaches should pick up 5-6ft+ sets throughout the day but they’ll be horribly wind affected and the only options will be sheltered southern ends, which will be considerably smaller. 

Across SE Qld, we may see a few stray 1.5-2ft sets across the outer points (and bigger but wind affected waves at exposed northern ends) but these kinds of south swells tend to be weak, inconsistent, and don’t run very far down the bank. In short, keep your expectations very low for Saturday; I’d rather be pleasantly surprised if the surf exceeds expectations.

Sunday’s swell will be generated by a secondary front slingshotting around the Tasman Low - tonight - situated in the central Tasman Sea. This is a crucial factor because its more easterly position will allow even a straight south swell to spread back into the coast. 

This fetch will be working on an already active sea state generated by the current system ahead of it, which will help to enhance swell potential. If there’s a downside, it’s that the leading edge of this next pulse may not arrive until mid-late morning across SE Qld (peaking through the afternoon) so the early session may be undersized. 

However conditions will be much better with the broader Tasman Low moving east, relaxing the pressure gradient and lightening surface winds. This means clean conditions at most beaches though exposed northern ends will probably still be quite wobbly from today’s and Saturday’s winds (they’ll generally be too big anyway).

South facing beaches south of Byron should rebuild back up into the 6ft+ range from this fetch, and the S/SE swell direction should allow for a marginally broader spread of size across protected regions. So, expect bigger waves at sheltered southern ends compared to Saturday though they'll still obviously be much smaller than exposed spots.

Across the SE Qld coast, for the most part I am expecting slow, inconsistent surf in the 1.5-2ft range at the outer points, however as this fresh pulse of swell arrives - let’s put in an order for 9-10am across the Gold Coast, and 12-1pm across the Sunshine Coast - we should see a spell of quality 3ft sets at the outer points, holding into the early-mid afternoon. This pulse of surf may not last very long so it’ll be important to pounce on it once it arrives. I’ll update in the comments below as new information comes to hand. 

Exposed northern ends will be considerably bigger (3-5ft through the afternoon, though smaller at dawn) however they may also feel the lingering effects of the previous days’ southerlies. 

If anything, the Sunshine Coast may not do quite as well in the size department as the Gold Coast - as is common under these swell directions. But as a minimum you should be able to pick up some fun beachies on Sunday north of Brisbane. 

Next week (July 3 onwards)

Sunday’s south swell will ease fairly steadily into Monday morning. But there’s another pulse of S/SE thru’ almost SE swell on the way for Monday afternoon and Tuesday.

Initially, we’ll see surf size ease to an inconsistent 1.5-2ft across the outer SE Qld points, bigger near 3ft+ at exposed northern ends, and up to 4-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller at protected locations).

However, our new swell will have been generated by a tertiary front associated with our current slow moving Tasman Low - this time tracking north from a position south of NZ, some time tonight and into Saturday morning. 

Surf size won’t so much kick on Monday afternoon; the new swell will more likely just arrest the easing trend. So I’m not expecting much of a change into Monday afternoon and even Tuesday morning should continue to motor along at a similar size, before easing throughout the day. There’s a chance for late Monday to see a few bigger bombs right on dusk but it doesn’t look much more than the odd 4-5ft or 4-6ft set at south facing beaches to me, easing from 4-5ft Tuesday.

Surface conditions look great across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld on Monday with light variable winds, however there is a still a risk of a gusty northerly flow across the Mid North Coast (south from about Yamba) as a cold front approaches from the west. Light N’ly winds are possibly in the afternoon across SE Qld but they shouldn’t be too strong, so northern ends will be your best bet for a wave as this swell kicks in.

This swell will then ease through Tuesday morning as winds fresh from the W/NW as the front moves across the region and a mid latitude low migrates into the Tasman Sea. Expect clean but rapidly easing surf across the beachies, becoming less consistent too.

There’s still some south swell potential for the second half of the week - exclusively across Northern NSW - though there’s been a downgrade since Wednesday - only due to the models aligning the winds more “zonally” (or west-east), which is detrimental to our surf prospects (NZ will pick up plenty of W swell from this system!).

I’ll have to revise this outlook on Monday, but at this stage we have a chance for a flukey south swell across the Mid North Coast on Wednesday afternoon, originating from W/SW gales existing eastern Bass Strait. However, these swell sources rely critically on the fetch alignment - if it tends any more west, we’ll see no surf at all; but if it veers SW then we’ll see more size.

For now, let’s ballpark occasional 2-3ft sets at a handful of exposed south swell magnets (smaller earlier). I don't know if it'll reach the Far North Coast before sunset either. I also can’t see there being much surf elsewhere. 

This swell source is likely to remain active through Wednesday which suggests we could see a similar round of energy through Thursday, though across the remaining Northern NSW coast too. Also, the parent low immediately S/SE of Tasmania during this time is expected to set up a secondary source of southerly swell spread for the second half of the week. I don’t like the short fetch length, but I do like its stationary nature. So this could keep south swell magnets humming with small to moderate southerly energy through into the start of next weekend.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!