South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th June)

Best Days: Thurs: small, easing S'ly swell in Northern NSW with good winds. Late Fri/Sat/Sun: large S'ly swell at times in Northern NSW, though windy (Fri/Sat). SE Qld should see small, average outer points Sat, best on Sun with a better S/SE pulse and light winds. 

Recap: We’ve seen tiny surf prevail across SE Qld over the last two days, but Northern NSW has picked up some fun southerly swell around 3ft at south facing beaches. Conditions were clean on Tuesday with mainly light winds, however this morning’s light offshore breezes gave way to freshening northerlies after lunch today. 

This week (Jun 29 - 30)

No changed to the outlook for SE Qld for the rest of the week - it’ll remain tiny to flat. A handful of south swell magnets may pick up some stray 2ft sets early Thursday morning but that’s about it.

As for Northern NSW, the second pulse of S’ly swell pushing across the coast this afternoon showed stronger in Sydney today (than yesterday’s former south swell) so we should see early sets across south facing beaches on Thursday morning before the trend eases during the day. The biggest waves are likely north of Coffs Harbour and south of Byron Bay, perhaps 2-3ft or so but smaller elsewhere and dropping in size into the afternoon.

Freshening NW winds should keep exposed northern ends clean so they’ll be your best choice. 

A strong front will move into the lower Tasman Sea overnight Thursday, and push up gale force SW tending S/SW winds across Southern NSW through the early hours of Friday morning. 

As such we’ll start the morning small across most of Northern NSW but with a steady increasing trend throughout the day that should nudge 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches across the Mid North Coast by late afternoon. Note: this size range may not reach the Far North Coast until overnight Friday, however we will certainly see a building trend here after lunch as a minimum.

However, Friday’s swell direction will be acutely south, so protected locations will be much smaller and with strong S/SW winds developing during the day (SW earlier) you’ll have to make a call between size and quality. I am really not expecting anything amazing in the surf department on Friday, so keep your expectations low. 

A minor increase is expected across SE Qld very late in the afternoon (probably just the Gold Coast) but it likely won’t show across the outer points, and the exposed northern ends picking up the swell will be wind affected. So don’t get your hopes up here either. 

This weekend (Jul 1 - 2)

The front and low responsible for Friday’s late increase will slowly clear into the eastern Tasman Sea during Saturday, but it will initially maintain a firm ridge against the coast, keeping SW thru’ S/SW winds fresh and gusty at times. 

As such, protected locations will be your only option and with the swell direction will quite south they will be much smaller. 

South facing beaches south of Byron should pick up occasional 5-6ft+ sets on Saturday, with much smaller waves at remaining open beaches around 4ft, and 2ft surf inside sheltered southern corners. Surf size will slowly ease into the afternoon and Sunday morning, though I am expecting a renewal of S/SE swell during the day from a secondary Tasman fetch, and this may keep south facing beaches in the 6ft+ range during the day. 

More importantly, this next pulse should provide a little more size across protected locations throughout Sunday. And even better, the pressure gradient will have relaxed across the coast by this time so we’ll be into a light variable pattern. Exposed northern ends will still see leftover southerly wobble from the Fri/Sat blow but there’ll be a heck of a lot more options on offer. 

Across SE Qld, Saturday should see a much smaller spread of south swell though persistent S’ly winds (lighter SW for a period around Cooly early Saturday) will confine the only surfable options to the sheltered points, with sets around 2ft or so (expect bigger, wind affected 3-4ft sets at northern ends). 

These kinds of swells are also much less consistent and often won’t run the full length of the points either, concentrating their energy at the outer sections. So keep this in mind as it’ll reduce your potential wave count. 

In Monday’s notes I mentioned a potential slingshot through the Tasman Sea that could deliver a slightly better pulse of swell for the outer SE Qld points this weekend. It’s still showing up in the models though has been slightly delayed, and is now more likely to push through on Sunday. Additionally, this small fetch - working on an active sea state - will be a little further to the east which should help to tweak the swell direction slightly more S/SE. 

As such I’m going to call for a brief flush - say, three or four hours - of 3ft sets at outer points at some point on Sunday, with smaller waves elsewhere but larger 3-5ft sets at exposed northern ends. 

With light variable winds on offer, Sunday should produce some nice surf in SE Qld. I’m still not 100% on the viability of the outer points - those numbers are a little optimistic given the high percentage of south in the swell direction - but at least there’ll be options across the beachies if nothing else. 

Next week (July 3 onwards)

The models have a slow easing trend through the first half of next week, but I’m keeping a cautious eye on a trailing system below the Tasman Low over the weekend, just south of New Zealand (see image below). Although only small in size, it’s (forecast to be) positioned in a unique swell window that is often underrepresented by the swell models, and could provide a small sneaky SE groundswell around Monday or Tuesday.

No major size is expected but we could see some 3ft waves from this source, at south facing beaches south of Byron. Let's reassess on Friday.

The only downer early next week will be a freshening pre-frontal northerly flow across Northern NSW on Monday. Winds should veer NW overnight and then W’ly into Tuesday. Monday morning may offer a brief window of lighter NW winds and strong but easing S/SE swells. Probably not a lot happening in SE Qld away from the south swell magnets though.

The next transient mid-latitude low is expected to push into Northern NSW’s south swell window later Tuesday, and we’ve got a couple of sources of south swell for the middle to latter part of the week.

Initially, we may see a small spread of acute south swell from a W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait (2-3ft sets across the Mid North Coast Wednesday afternoon), supplemented by a short range S/SW swell from a developing local fetch off the southern NSW coast around the same time, building further into Thursday. 

However, this will be the precursor to a strong front pushing through the southern Tasman Sea that’s expected to renew large southerly swells into Thursday and Friday in the 5-6ft+ range at south facing beaches, though with (again) accompanying gusty S/SW winds.

More on this in Friday’s update.