South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 26th June)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: small/mod south swell building at Northern NSW south swell maganets, easing Thurs. Late Fri/Sat/Sun: large south swell in Northern NSW though windy. Chance for a window of small fun SE Qld points sometime Saturday, tiny otherwise.

Recap: There were some great waves on Saturday with easing SE swell still managing to produce quality 3ft surf in Northern NSW, with 2ft surf across SE Qld open beaches (much smaller on the points). 

This swell eased further into Sunday but was replaced with a new combo of long period and mid period southerly swell from two sources - the long period energy originated from a deep polar low that formed under WA on Tues/Wed last week, in a remote, acute parent of our flukey south swell window. The mid-period energy originated from a front that tracked east of Tasmania on Friday night.

The two swells arrived simultaneously (the mid period swell lagged slightly behind expectations) and produced strong surf at south facing beaches, most locations came in close to expectations (3ft+ sets) however, some beaches across the Mid North Coast saw larger surf. This was best shown across MHL’s array of wave buoys: Byron Bay (finally back online!) saw Hsig - or significant wave heights - averaging 1.3m, with no discernible trend (apart from swell periods, which increased during the day). The Coffs Harbour buoy however peaked in the afternoon with Hsig around 2m, and the Crowdy Head buoy - near Port Macquarie - peaked with Hsig around 2.5m. This spread of size across a geographically similar area is somewhat unusual (the Crowdy Head buoy recorded the highest Hsig values on the entire East Coast from this event).

Interestingly, MHL's standard buoy data graphs didn’t show peak periods as being very high on Sunday either; a couple of brief spikes to 16 seconds and that was it. This is most likely because of the simultaneous swell trains. 

Tp, or “peak period" is related to the period associated to the most energy (i.e. not "max period"). So whilst there were certainly 16-18 second swell periods in the water on Sunday (18 seconds was recorded off Tasmania on Saturday), it was obviously a weaker signal than the energy generated by Friday’s front.

To that end, see the image to the right - this is spectral data from the Crowdy Head buoy around 1pm Sat - which shows the energy distribution at a single point in time. Swell periods extend outward from the centre (i.e. highest values on the edge of the circle), swell energy is proportionate to colour, and direction is as per the compass bearing. This confirms that there was a faint signal between 20-25 seconds (!), whilst the strongest signal was in and around 10-15 seconds (indeed Tp was recorded as 13.3 seconds). 

This week (Jun 27 - 30)

Let me begin these notes by pointing out (for the benefit of SE Qld surfers) - you’ve got an extended run of small surf ahead, as is typical for this time of the year (c’mon, don’t complain - it’s been a couple of unreal weeks and it’s time somewhere else scored epic waves).

Anyway, there are a couple of sources of new swell for the coming days. However, the models have downgraded the strength of a S/SW fetch pushing through the lower Tasman Sea today, and our model doesn’t seem to be picking up the new swells very well either. It’s currently overcalling a new swell due this afternoon (3-4ft from the south at Coffs Harbour) which doesn’t give much confidence for Tuesday. 

The fetch trailing the Tasman front is broad but not terribly strong, and it won’t hang in the swell window for very long either. This should produce 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron across throughout Tuesday, and it’ll be clean with light variable winds. Most beaches not open to the south will be considerably smaller.

On Wednesday, this south swell will fade but it’ll be replaced from mid-late morning onwards (mid afternoon across the Far North) by a new long period S’ly swell generated by a polar low traversing below the continent yesterday.

Surface winds are much stronger but the fetch is poorly aligned so we’ll see swell energy glance the coast during the day. This should produce occasional 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, but again, much smaller waves at beaches will less southerly exposure. Early light winds may crop up from the north during the day but no great strength is expected (anyway, south facing beaches handle these winds OK). Expect there to be considerably longer breaks between the sets on Wednesday - this is not a high confidence swell event.

This swell event will peak overnight and ease through Thursday with freshening NW winds as a cold front approaches. The Byron region may pick up some stray 3ft sets at dawn but most locations will have eased to 2ft by Thursday morning and will continue to trend down throughout the day.  Winds will likely veer W’ly during the day. 

Across SE Qld, these south swells won't do much but if you have to get wet, late Wednesday and early Thursday may produce some small peaky waves at exposed northern ends around 2ft+. Don't expect much elsewhere though. 

The approaching cold front will push fresh S/SW winds (W/SW early) across Northern NSW on Friday, and a new low pressure system will form in the Tasman Sea mid-way between Tasmania and New Zealand. This will drive gale force S/SW winds across the south-western Tasman Sea, generating a large short period swell that’s due to peak on Saturday morning. 

Friday afternoon should see large windy waves at south facing beaches, though it’ll be biggest across the Mid North Coast due to its closer proximity to the fetch (and thus earlier arrival time) with sets around 4-6ft on dark (expect much smaller surf early). Surf size will likely be smaller in the Far North. With these gusty conditions you’ll have to look towards a sheltered southern corner which will be considerably smaller in size. 

Model guidance is suggesting a minor increase across SE Qld - mainly just the Gold Coast - late Friday but aside from exposed northern ends (which will be wind affected) I can’t see the outer points picking up much more than a lazy foot or two in the few hours before dark. I will review this in more detail on Wednesday though.

This weekend (Jul 1 - 2)

We’ve got a strong S’ly swell for the weekend, easing through late Saturday and then Sunday. 

Initially, gusty SW tending S/SW winds will accompany Saturday’s waves and with the swell direction being acutely south, protected southern corners will be considerably smaller. Expect bumpy 5-6ft+ sets at south swell magnets south of Byron on Saturday, much smaller elsewhere, easing from 4-5ft to 3-4ft on Sunday with winds becoming light to moderate SW.

In SE Qld, we should see a small increase in S’ly swell across the outer points on Saturday. I’m always reluctant to favour anything worthwhile under a such a direct south swell, but the models do suggest an interesting slingshot in the Tasman Low on Friday (from Tasmanian latitudes) that could create a captured fetch scenario. This could enhance Qld's swell potential if the models hang on to it over the coming days.

So, on the balance I think we’ll see inconsistent, weak waves around 2ft across the outer points at times on Saturday but it’s possible that we’ll also see a brief period - say, a couple of hours - where the outer points rake in bigger sets around 3ft. Exposed northern ends will be bigger but wind affected on Saturday. 

By Sunday it’ll be back to weak 1-2ft leftovers across the outer points but exposed northern ends should see a few leftover 2-3ft sets. and it’ll be cleaner with light variable winds. 

Let's see how Wednesday's model runs are handling this solution.

Next week (July 3 onwards)

At the moment there's nothing major expected in the surf department next week, just an easing trend for the first few days as the storm track focuses away from our swell window over the weekend. Conditions should be clean for the first half of the week with mainly offshore winds.

A new south swell is possible around Thursday in Northern NSW with a fresh frontal passage through the lower Tasman Sea. 

More on this in Wednesday’s update.