South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 21st June)

Best Days: Thurs should see fun small waves at outer SE Qld points. Fri should see an improvement everywhere with light variable winds, persisting into Sat but with easing swells. Sun and Mon have a long period S'ly groundswell in store for Northern NSW with offshore winds. 

Recap: The last few days have delivered fantastic waves at a handful of locations, mainly outer points across SE Qld, with large south-east swells across the region and moderate to fresh SW thru’ S’ly winds on hand. It’s been hard to get a handle on the precise surf size due to the way refractive processes have influenced wave heights across various regions - for example a few stretches of the Gold Coast came in a little bigger than anticipated, but some parts of the Sunshine Coast came in smaller than expected. However it’s fair to assume that exposed beaches in Northern NSW saw the brunt of the anticipated 6-8ft+ swell, albeit with very windy conditions. Size eased into today though a little more slowly than expected in Monday's notes though the trend is definitely down.

Late lines at Byron Bay this evening

This week (Jun 22 - 23)

It’s been interesting to observe the coastal response to this SE swell. In particular, the inner points of Noosa saw barely any size yet the outer SE Qld points delivered bigger surf than expected (exacerbated by the shallow low tide bars, which really opened up the barrels). Conversely, at the height of yesterday’s size, observations from our Byron Bay surfcam didn’t really show a proportionate amount of energy pushing through the Pass (conversely, this afternoon looked bigger and stronger even though the swell is now easing - see image above). And south to the Mid North Coast it’s really been not much different to a common winter south or south-east swell. 

Anyway, we’re now on the backside of the primary event, however the Tasman Low is still humming nicely and there’s plenty of energy to come - albeit from a few new sources, both of which are not aimed favourably into our region. But we will see plenty of waves throughout the forecast period.

First up: the current SE swell will continue to trend down into the remainder of the week. 

The two new sources will originate from different flanks of the existing Tasman Low. A developing S’ly fetch along its western flank is aimed nicely into the Coral Sea, but poorly aligned for our coast. So we’ll see a building spread of S/SE swell across Northern NSW that won’t do anywhere near as much work across SE Qld due to the fetch position.


Additionally, the backside of the Tasman Low is still quite active as of today and this will provide plenty of easterly swell through Thursday and Friday, just a little less consistent. And it’ll be biggest across the Mid North Coast (as it’s aimed towards southern NSW) so we won’t see much size across SE Qld from this source either.

The models have been a little hit and miss over the last few days but I rethink they’re looking pretty close for the end of the week. Most open beaches south of Byron should hover in and around the 4ft mark both days (biggest at exposed northern ends) with smaller surf at southern ends. Lingering southerly winds are expected across most open beaches at some point on Thursday but there should be SW breezes through the morning. Friday will be cleaner with light variable winds, but still some leftover surface wobble thanks to the last few weeks of persistent southerlies.

Across SE Qld, were looking at smaller surf Thursday easing from 3ft+ at exposed northern ends and 2-3ft across the outer points, easing a little throughout the day. Moderate SW tending S’ly winds will again favour the points. 

Into Friday and surf size should continue easing from 2-3ft range across exposed northern ends to 2ft across the points (a little smaller into the afternoon), with much less consistency in the sets. But conditions will be much better with light variable winds. 

This weekend (Jun 24 - 25)

Offshore winds are expected all weekend as a series of cold fronts and lows pass south of our region. 

Our fun week of easterly swell will diminish from Saturday morning onwards, with the Mid North Coast seeing the most size (early 2-3ft sets, easing during the day and further into Sunday). 

SE Qld won’t see much surf this weekend with occasional 2ft sets at open northern ends Saturday and very little on Sunday. Expect smaller waves across the points. 

On Sunday, we’ll see two new sources of south swell push up the Northern NSW coast. 

Initially, a front passing east of Tasmania overnight Friday will display a W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait. This should kick up some 2-3ft sets during the day, though it’ll be a brief pulse and will probably be overshadowed by a second, stronger south swell in the water. 

This next swell will be sourced from the parent low to this front, passing south of Tasmania on Friday evening. Although not ideally aimed within our swell window, it will generate a long period S’ly swell that will build throughout Sunday, possibly peaking early Monday across the Far North. 

It’s a tight, tricky system in a flukey part of our swell window and although the models have slightly weakened this system since Monday, we should see strong 3-5ft sets at exposed south facing beaches south of Byron late afternoon (note: due to the timing of the swell, locations further south - i.e. Mid North Coast - stand a better chance of seeing the biggest waves on Sunday). 

SE Qld won't pick up much size from this south swell. Exposed northern ends are your only chance for an occasional wave - right on dark maybe some 2ft to maybe 2-3ft sets if we're very fortunate. 

In fact, the initial source of this swell is a deep polar low well south of WA at the moment, and satellite imagery has shown that (this morning) surface winds have come in stronger than modelled. So, there is a chance that we may see a little more size from this episode over the weekend across Northern NSW (and possibly an earlier building trend/peak cycle). I’ll have a closer look on Friday. 

Regardless, with light offshore winds on hand there should be some great, strong southerly swells to finish the weekend across Northern NSW. 

Next week (Jun 26 onwards)

Monday will see Sunday’s long period S’ly swell easing slowly in size (though possibly peaking early morning around the Byron/Ballina region), with early W’ly winds veering SW in the south as a series of fronts enter the southern Tasman Sea. Winds should remain varibale in the north.

The south swell won't make much impact north of the border, away from exposed south swell magnets which may see occasional 2-3ft sets if we're super lucky (just a foot or less elsewhere). 

These fronts will then kick start a fresh series of strong southerly swells for the middle of the week that should nudge 4-6ft at some south swell magnets south of Byron (again, not much north of the border). Winds will likely be out of the SW quadrant, sometimes S’ly at exposed spots but generally workable. More on this in Friday’s update.