South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 22nd May)

Best Days: Tues: strong but slowly easing SE swell with mainly light winds. Smaller in SE Qld but with plenty of trade swell underneath. Wed: clean but small leftover beachies. Thurs/Fri/Sat: new round of E'ly swell with mainly light variable winds (may be S'ly Thurs). Sun: smaller E'ly swell with light winds. 

Recap: Oh yeah... what a great run of surf! A persistent trade swell built slowly from Saturday into Sunday and held into today, with size up to 4ft across SE Qld beaches, with smaller surf south from Byron. A series of southerly groundswells also padded out the weekend with 3ft+ sets across Northern NSW. Today we’ve seen an incredible long period SE swell pushed along the coast, generated by a third polar low in a Southern Ocean sequence, which tracked underneath New Zealand on Friday (the first two generated the Fri/Sat and then Sun south swells). A wave buoy well south of New Zealand recorded maximum wave of heights of 19.4m (68ft!) on Saturday with peak swell periods of 17 seconds. The Sydney wave buoy displayed forerunners of 20 seconds (!) overnight Sunday, with Northern NSW picking up the swell mid-late morning and the Tweed buoy finally recording 18 second peak periods early-mid afternoon. Southern NSW has seen solid surf up around 6ft+ at exposed spots, and exposed locations in Northern NSW are starting to push close to this size range - though wave heights are much smaller north of the border.

Decent sets at Snapper Rocks this afternoon

This week (Tues 23rd - Fri  26th)

What a swell event! Not so much in the actual surf size, but in the metrics recorded across the coast. The fetch that generated this swell was not unusually strong (fairly standard 40-50kts+ core winds); more interesting was its alignment and projection through a rare part of our distant SE swell window. And it had the added benefit on working on a very active sea state generated by the previous fronts. We often see small flukey swells from this region but it's rare for such a large long period swell to originate from this region - normally the low latitude westerlies absorb any weather system trying to develop a southerly or south-east fetch here.

Anyway, our wave model (and therefore, by default our surf model) undercalled this event - though as expected (my Friday notes pegged 6ft+ sets for exposed spots) - but it also missed the arrival time, and the peak of the swell in Southern NSW - anticipating a peak later this afternoon and holding into Tuesday morning (with a peak on Tuesday morning across Northern NSW and SE Qld). 

So, this forms the crux for the initial short term forecasting decision - how much size will hold true overnight? Southern NSW has retained plenty of size all day so we should be looking at some solid waves for the early session on Tuesday though a gradual easing trend is expected throughout the day. 

South facing beaches south of Byron should initially see inconsistent 4-6ft bomb sets, with smaller waves at protected southern ends. Keep in mind that this swell is already very inconsistent and will only become more infrequent as we push past its peak.

North of the border, wave heights will be smaller but thanks to the SE swell direction there should be some fun waves across the outer points - but keep in mind that these surf locations don’t fare well under inconsistent swell events (fortunately there’ll be plenty of persistent trade swell around the 2-3ft mark). The long range sets from the SE could push 3ft+ at these locations and the region’s exposed south swell magnets could see occasional 3-5ft bombs. But in general you’ll mainly be surfing the smaller, more consistent leftover trade swell.

This swell will then ease rapidly through Wednesday, leaving us with residual trade swell for the next few days. 

However, our week’s swell prospects don’t end there. A developing tropical low near Fiji at the moment is expected to reach peak intensity later Tuesday and this is generating a new pulse of trade swell that will slowly increase throughout Thursday afternoon ahead of a peak in size on Friday and holding into early Saturday morning. I’m a little concerned about how the fetch retreats to the east, and that this may limit wave heights across our region - but the fetch width is pretty impressive so we should see a decent round of E’ly swell reaching 3-4ft+ at exposed beaches (likely later Friday). 

However, compared to recent trade swell events, this swell will be much less consistent as the head of the developing fetch will be considerably further east (and retreating). 

Local winds look pretty good all week under a relaxed pressure gradient - Thursday could see briefly freshening southerlies as a small front passes through the southern Tasman Sea but it won’t have too much of an effect on our surf quality away from exposed beaches. 

A small south swell is also possible across Northern NSW late Thursday and Friday, originating from the aforementioned front but I doubt we’ll see much more than 2ft+ at south swell magnets south of Byron. The E’ly swell will be much more dominant at this time anyway. 

This weekend (Sat 27th - Sun 28th)

Friday’s E’ly pulse is expected to hold through Saturday (early 3-4ft sets) before easing into Sunday (2-3ft early, down to 2ft by late afternoon). This will be our one and only swell source this weekend so you’ll have to make the most of Saturday’s size (though Sunday should still be quite OK across the beachies). 

Winds look good both days under a weak pressure pattern. So, book in some time at an isolated beach to escape the weekend crowds. It’ll be well worth the effort. 

Next week (Mon 29th onwards)

Another cold outbreak is on the cards for early next week which also suggests a strong southerly swell for the middle of next week as a strong southerly fetch pushes up east of Tasmania. 

Otherwise, there’s nothing else of any major concern showing up on the long range charts. We will see slowly easing long range E’ly swell through the first half of next week but no major size is expected.