South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 19th May)

Best Days: We're looking at an extended run of good waves and generally favourable conditions (only concern is Sat AM in the wind department). Sun PM/Mon the highlight in SE Qld with a pulse of E'ly swell, late Mon thru' Tues in Northern NSW with a long period SE groundswell. Plenty of E'ly swell beyond this too. 

Recap: New S’ly swells built across the region on Thursday though winds weren’t great for the most part right across the coast. Today we’ve seen easing S’ly and building short range E’ly swells, and up until lunchtime conditions were manageable across SE Qld with light S’ly winds. They’re now fresh E’ly across the Gold Coast but still light S’ly on the Sunshine Coast. South of the border, and the Far Northern NSW coast has been onshore all day but winds were light offshore across the Mid North Coast until mid-morning.

This weekend (May 18 - 19)

We've still got a tricky weekend ahead but we should see some decent waves at times, and it'll certainly get better as the weekend progresses.

The existing troughy pattern will retain some form of easterly breeze across the coast into Saturday, however as we’ve seen today there is a reasonable chance for pockets of light variable winds. 

The trough will then move offshore into Sunday so we stand a much better chance for all-round smooth conditions to finish the weekend. 

As for surf, the trade swell slowly building across the coast should manage 2-3ft sets both days across the Gold and Tweed Coasts (slightly bigger on the Sunshine Coast), ahead of a kick in size on Sunday afternoon from a small tropical depression forming west of New Caledonia this afternoon. It’s expected to reach peak intensity into Saturday with 30kts+ winds in our near swell window, so the energy from this intensification should arrive sometime after lunch on Sunday. This should manage occasional 3-5ft sets across the Sunshine Coast in the few hours before dark, slightly smaller across the Gold and Tweed Coasts (3-4ft), and smaller surf south from Byron with a later arrival time too.

As for Northern NSW, in addition to decreasing levels of easterly swell (with increasing southerly latitude from the border), we’ll also see a couple of southerly groundswells make their presence felt. 

However, whilst the sources of each swell are strong, I think that the model is overcalling Saturday’s energy (4ft at south facing beaches around Coffs Harbour by lunchtime?), and in my opinion set waves will probably max out around 3ft at south facing beaches (reaching a peak into the afternoon, starting from a smaller base early morning). The sets will be inconsistent too owing to the large travel distance and unfavourable alignment.

This swell has already been detected at wave buoys off NSW’s South Coast though hadn’t reached Sydney at the time this forecast was prepared.

A secondary pulse due later Sunday is only modelled to be 2-3ft at south facing beaches and given the significant swell periods (16+ seconds) we are likely to see bigger surf than this at reliable south facing beaches, probably in the 3-4ft range into the afternoon, again starting smaller in the morning with leftovers from Saturday’s pulse.

There will however be very long breaks between sets, and given the slightly flukey source of the swell (poorly aligned front in the SE Tasman Sea) the bigger waves may only glance the coast at the most reliable south swell magnets. 

These south swells probably won’t do much for SE Qld but this is a moot point with the building E’ly swell.

So in short, keep your expectations low across Northern NSW for the weekend’s southerly swells as they certainly have been generated from the outer edges of our preferred synoptic setups. But with light winds across all coasts there should be a fun blend of E'ly and S'ly swells for the beach breaks in all regions.

Next week (Mon 20th onwards)

Lots of swell for the next week ahead. 

The tropical depression expected to generate Sunday’s pulse will move out into the South Pacific on Sunday and broaden into a lovely trade flow between New Zealand and Fiji/Samoa, in conjunction with a slow moving Tasman high pressure.

This is expected to generate a long lasting E’ly swell that should persist through next week; in fact there’ll be some kind of easterly activity in our far swell window up until next weekend or early in the following week, which should ensure rideable surf from this region through until almost the end of the following week (albeit small and very inconsistent by the end of the period).

So, on to specifics and Sunday’s late pulse should hold through early Monday morning though gradually ease back in size through Tuesday and into Wednesday, reaching a low point that afternoon around 2-3ft at most open beaches.

A new pulse of E’ly swell originating from a reintensification of the trade flow south of Fiji should kick up surf size back into the 4ft range for most coasts around next Thursday and Friday, and yet another pulse is due around Sunday or Monday. These new pulses will be less consistent than the weekend's swells, as they will have been generated further away from the mainland.

On top of that, we also have a really nice S/SE thru’ SE groundswell, due Monday afternoon (Mid North Coast) and into Tuesday (remaining Northern NSW coasts and exposed parts of SE Qld). This swell is being sourced from the third polar low in the current sequence as it tracks directly below New Zealand (Craig mentioned the broad, far-reaching effects of this swell in yesterday’s article). Wave heights will then ease into Wednesday. 

Surface conditions are looking nice with light variable winds each day, with south facing beaches south of Byron expected to peak around 4-5ft at most south facing beaches (possibly some bigger rogue 6ft+ bombs at a handful of reliable south swell magnets). Mixed in with the easing easterly swell, and with light winds all ‘round, there should be some great beach breaks on offer. However, bear in mind that the very large travel distance means that set waves will be very inconsistent from the SE swell. 

This swell will lose a considerable amount of size as it rounds Cape Byron but we should see inconsistent 2-3ft waves across the region’s various outer points, up to 4ft at a handful of south swell magnets. 

Have a great weekend, see you on Monday!