South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 2nd January)

Best Days: Most days should have peaky waves about the coast, tho' a little wind affected at times (esp Tues).

Recap: Small swells and northerly winds greatly restricted surfing opportunities all weekend across all coasts. Today, we’ve seen a continuation of these conditions though a southerly change is pushing across Northern NSW (as of 4pm, just north of Yamba but south of Evans Head). Winds were light and variable ahead of the change so some regions (i.e. Mid North Coast) have seen a window of small clean beachies.

Small clean beachies in Coffs this morning

This week (Jan 3rd - Jan 6th)

Model data has the S’ly change into the Gold Coast just after midnight tonight, reaching the Sunshine Coast around dawn. 

Although winds should become quite strong during the morning - potentially 30kts+ at some exposed coasts - the fetch length behind the change won’t be very long, and initially the ridge won’t have extended very far out into the Northern Tasman Sea. Therefore, because such winds will only favour protected spots such as the southern Gold Coast points, I am concerned that there may not be enough size for these sheltered locations.

We will however have some additional swell in the water. A weak trough in the Coral Sea extends a broad, if only moderate strength E/NE fetch through to about Vanuatu. This should generate some small E/NE thru’ NE swell for SE Qld beaches on Tuesday, around the 1-2ft mark. The ridge should kick up 2-3ft+ at exposed south facing beaches (and exposed northern ends etc) by Tuesday afternoon but as mentioned above I am concerned that the low period and strong southerly component in the swell direction may max out wave heights in the 2ft+ range at the various outer points (starting from a small base, especially on the Sunshine Coast).

Across Northern NSW, we are seeing a building S’ly windswell behind today’s change, and although this will ease rapidly into Tuesday, we have a second small south swell on the way for the afternoon. This is thanks to a small secondary low off the Tasmanian East Coast today (not previously modelled) that expected to reach the Southern NSW coast overnight. 

Wind speeds around this secondary low aren’t high, but the small fetch will be working on an active sea state generate by today’s change. So this should assist in nudging up wave heights from what’s an otherwise unremarkable fetch. South facing beaches may start off a little undersized but should increase to 2-3ft+ after lunch.

Unfortunately, most Northern NSW beaches will be rendered quite bumpy by moderate to fresh SE winds. 

A broad ridge will then build across the central/northern Tasman Sea, contributing short range E/SE swell to all coasts through Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. No major size is expected though we should see 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches, with smaller surf running down the regional points. Winds are likely to be mainly light to moderate onshore through this period, with periods of variable winds at times - more prevalent through Thursday and Friday as a troughy pattern envelops the coastal margin again.

And just to recap on another potential system for SE Qld this week (mentioned in last Friday’s notes) - another coastal trough/low off the Capricornia Coast over the coming days looks like it’ll be focused just north of Fraser Island, which has reduced its potential influence on SE Qld, specifically the Sunshine Coast. That being said, we should see some bigger surf here from the E/NE than on the Gold Coast, perhaps 2-3ft across open beaches through the second half of the week. 

This weekend (Jan 7th - Jan 8th)

A deep Southern Ocean low is expected to intensify well to the SW of Tasmania around Tues/Wed of this week, before weakening and tracking up towards New Zealand. Although unfavourably aligned for our coast, we should see some small long period south swell glance exposed south swell magnets in Northern NSW on Sunday, with inconsistent 2ft+ sets.

The Coral Sea ridge is expected to strengthen from about Thursday onwards, which should generate a building trade swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW both Saturday and Sunday. At this stage the Sunshine Coast is looking at the largest surf (4ft by Sunday), with smaller surf peaking on the Gold and Tweed Coasts (3ft), and slightly smaller surf again across remaining Northern NSW coasts. 

On the whole, winds are looking to be moderate onshore with periods of light variable winds in the mornings. If anything, we’re likely to see NE winds develop across the Lower Mid North Coast (potentially fresh at times in the far south), and Queensland coasts will be prone to an E/SE flow, but locations between the two will see slack winds through the mornings before the sea breezes kick in.

So, all in all it’s shaping up for a fun weekend of bog standard summer trade swells across most regions.

Next week (Jan 9th onwards)

The models are starting to firm up on some tropical activity in the Coral Sea next week.

As the ridge builds through the Northern Tasman Sea this weekend, we’ll see continuing trade swell for all coasts early next week, but of much more interest is a possible tropical low west of New Caledonia that could develop into a significant swell generating system at this time - it’s worth pencilling in mid-next week for a potential round of solid surf across the points in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. More on this in Wednesday’s update.