South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 30th December)

Best Days: No great days but there'll be workable waves each day if you can find somewhere out of the wind. 

Recap: Our persistent easterly swell built through Thursday, though surf size came in a little under expectations - the buoys showing very little upwards trend in size or period - and the expected N/NE airstream for the Mid North Coast actually extended right up into SE Qld (winds were stronger in the south though, gusting 30kts in Coffs Harbour). As such, conditions weren’t great at most beaches. Today we’ve seen early light offshore winds and an easing E’ly swell, around 3ft in SE Qld and smaller across Northern NSW beaches. Winds are again up from the N/NE this afternoon. 

This weekend (Dec 31st - Jan 1st)

Northerly winds will continue to cause problems over the weekend.

With no major swell sources in the water, we’ll be relying on leftover E’ly swell from today plus a small short range E/NE swell from a weak ridge across the northern Tasman Sea. No great size is expected, but most open beaches should see set waves in and around the 2ft mark both days (maybe a smidgen bigger across open SE Qld beaches early Saturday morning). 

The Mid North Coast may also see a slightly bigger, but lesser quality NE windswell in the water, with 2-3ft sets at north facing beaches - though conditions will be mainly poor at these beaches owing to the accompanying northerly breeze. 

Next week (Jan 2nd - Jan 6th)

Northerly winds will persist into Monday, whilst small weak E/NE swells and local NE windswells persist about open beaches with slow sets around the 2ft mark. 

A shallow trough will move up the Northern NSW coast during the day, reaching the Mid North Coast before lunch and the Far North Coast very late in the afternoon, before stalling around this region. Winds may veer W’ly just ahead of the trough but without any major swell in the water there’s not much to get excited about.

A small S/SE fetch trailing the trough will generate a small, low quality windswell for south facing beaches in Northern NSW on Tuesday (2ft or so). A slightly bigger mid-range swell is due across the Mid North Coast late in the day and may provide a few bigger sets to remaining Northern NSW beaches early Wednesday morning but with SE winds persisting about the coastal margin under the influence of the stalled trough (plus a second trough across the Capricornia coast) it’s hard to imagine there’ll be anything worthwhile. There's a chance for a period of variable winds between the troughs - i.e. Gold and Tweed Coasts - but it's too early to have any confidence in this right now.

Also on Wednesday, we may see a small, interesting swell across parts of the Northern NSW coast, most likely the Mid North than anywhere else. 

This swell will be sourced from a broad trough that’s expected to track eastwards across the Southern Ocean over the weekend, to the south of New Zealand, displaying a long thin E/SE fetch. Although I don’t like the eastward track, and also despite the fetch being mainly aimed into Southern NSW, its length and duration within our swell window lends some credibility to the possibility of a fun SE swell pushing across the region during the day. Set waves could reach a very inconsistent 2-3ft from this source - I’d rate it a low chance now and with a reasonable chance for onshore winds, it’s not worth getting too excited about. But if the local wind outlook changes by Monday’s updated notes, this swell may suddenly find some relevance. 

Throughout Wednesday and into Thursday we’ll also start to see a building E’ly swell from the top of a broadening Tasman high. This ridge will be aimed nicely into our coasts - aimed mainly into Far Northern NSW - and although it won’t be very strong, its sustained, near-stationary position should bump up wave heights above modelled expectations. As such by Thursday I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw occasional 3ft+ sets across many open beaches. If anything, slightly smaller surf may eventuate across SE Qld (particularly the Sunshine Coast) as the fetch will be aimed just south of here. This swell should hold into Friday.

As mentioned above (and also in last Wednesday’s notes), all signs are pointing towards an extended period of E/NE activity extending from the eastward passage of the monsoon trough across northern parts of the country. A tropical depression from this pattern expected to slide south through the Coral Sea over the weekend, before anchoring itself across the Capricornia coast early next week. This is then modelled to intensify a local E’ly fetch across the Fraser Coast and possibly Sunshine Coast around Tuesday - in conjunction with the second (aforementioned) trough to the south - and we should see a rapid increase in short range swell through the middle of the week.

Quality probably won’t be high but I wouldn’t be surprised if exposed beaches on the Sunshine Coast saw junky 4-5ft sets through this period, with smaller surf running down the points. Surf size would be smaller south of the trough (i.e. south from the Gold Coast) but it’s still early days so let’s see how things are stacking up on Monday.  

Next weekend and beyond (Jan 7th onwards)

The monsoon passage to our north is expected anchor in a broad troughy pattern through the Northern Tasman Sea, resulting in fluctuating easterly through northerly fetches through the Coral Sea and South Pacific. Whilst no significant swells are appearing on the long term charts at this stage, all of the required atmospheric ingredients for a major swell event are certainly in position, so chances are still high that we’ll see some dynamic developments over the coming weeks. 

More on this in Monday’s update.