South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th December)

Best Days: Plenty of surf most days though local winds will cause a few problems. Thursday should see the most size. 

Recap: Peaky E’ly swell around 3ft both Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly light to moderate onshore winds. Slightly bigger waves have been reported on the Sunshine Coast.

This week (Dec 29th - 30th)

No major changes to Monday’s outlook. 

A broad fetch of easterly winds through the lower Coral Sea associated with a Tasman high and a small tropical depression are generating an easterly swell that’s expected to reach a peak on Thursday, before easing into Friday. 

Wave heights will be largest across the Sunshine Coast, owing to its closer proximity to the swell source, and local winds are likely to be similar to that of the last few days - that is, mainly light to moderate onshores with a few isolated periods of variable winds in the early mornings from SE Qld south to about Yamba. South of about Coffs Harbour we’ll be at a greater risk of freshening N/NE winds throughout the day that could reach 15-20kts in the afternoons.

Surf size should peak across the Sunshine Coast around 4-5ft throughout Thursday, with slightly smaller surf across the Gold Coast around 3-4ft+ and then marginally smaller surf as you track south of the border (down to around 3ft across the Mid North Coast). This swell will ease by a foot or two throughout Friday.

A small NE windswell is expected to develop across the Mid North Coast over the coming days though no great size or quality is expected. 

These figures are down a touch on Monday’s estimates because the strength of the responsible Coral Sea wind field has been eased slightly in the latest model runs and despite the favourable westward projection of the embedded tropical low, this system is generally aimed towards the Capricornia Coast (i.e. north of Fraser Island). 

This weekend (Dec 31st - Jan 1st)

Winds are expected to veer more northerly in direction this weekend and this will create some problems in the surf department. Winds will be strongest across the Mid North Coast and lighter across SE Qld, so you’ll have to aim for the mornings where there’s a slim chance for an early N/NW breeze.

Although Thursday’s swell will be easing through this time, and small ridge across the northern Tasman Sea (just SW of New Caledonia) will generate small levels of E/NE swell that will keep most open beaches from becoming flat. SE Qld and Far Northern NSW beaches should see 2-3ft sets early Saturday easing to 2ft throughout the day and holding at this size into Sunday. Expect slight smaller surf south of Byron Bay (with a size grading from north to south, biggest nearest the border).

The Mid North Coast will also see a small low quality NE windswell in the water this weekend though once again there won’t be much quality on offer from this source.

Next week (Jan 2nd onwards)

We’ve got some interesting options on the charts for next week. 

An active monsoon crossing the northern part of the country next week is expected to instigate new tropical depressions and/or tropical cyclones through the Coral Sea and South Pacific over the coming weeks.

At the moment there’s a suggestion for a broad tropical low to push southwards through the Coral Sea over the weekend and potentially redevelop off the SE Qld coast around Monday, driving gusty onshores into the coast and whipping up a punchy local swell through the middle of the week. Model projects are currently quite optimistic in the size department from this pattern (Gold Coast size around 6ft from next Thursday thru’ Monday) but I’d be little cautious on this right now owing to the erratic model runs of late, and the close proximity of this system to the coast.

There are also some other swell sources starting to pop up around the South Pacific and whilst there’s nothing specific to hone into right now, the broader pattern suggests an atmosphere primed for significant developments throughout the first two weeks of January. So, hang in there - I’m pretty confident we’ll be looking at a very dynamic synoptic chart in the next couple of days. 

See you Friday - hopefully with some good news!