South-east Queensland and Northern NSW  Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 26th December)

Best Days: Plenty of surf all week, peaking late Wed (SE Qld) and Thurs (SE Qld and Northern NSW). Lots of potential for the next few weeks too.

Recap: Plenty of east surf all weekend and today, building from 2-3ft on Saturday to 3-4ft throughout Sunday, then easing very slightly today though still showing some 3ft sets about some exposed coasts (slightly smaller surf south of about Ballina/Yamba). Winds have been mainly light to moderate onshore with periods of variable winds at times. 

This week (Dec 27th - 30th)

Last week, I discussed at length a promising tropical system developing near New Caledonia that had the potential to generate a larger E’ly swell for the middle of this week. 

Unfortunately, the latest model guidance has eased back the strength of this system, however the supporting ridge is still expected to develop nicely - and there’ll be a small embedded easterly dip within the broader pattern - so we’re looking at a healthy increase in trade swell throughout the week.

As per the last few days, local winds will generally hold from the eastern quadrant all week (from the SE Qld region south to about Coffs Harbour), though we will see periods go lighter, possibly variable winds for brief periods, mainly in the mornings and also associated with brief isolated thunderstorms. 

South from Coffs Harbour, winds will veer more to the NE and become fresh at times. However the early mornings should offer periods of lighter N’ly winds in this region.

A stationary blocking high in the Tasman Sea will maintain this pattern right through into the weekend, possibly beyond.

As for surf, we’re looking at a slow increase in size over the coming days towards a plateau in and around very late Wednesday through Thursday.

Wave heights should reach 4-5ft across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW at the height of the swell, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Sunshine Coast - being closest to the swell source - rakes in a couple of biggest bombs at times. Surf size will be smaller across the protected points but they'll be the best option under the prevailing easterly breeze.

The Mid North Coast is more likely to see a Thursday peak around 3-4ft, with smaller surf prior to this.

A slow easing trend is then expected across all coasts through Friday.

This weekend (Dec 31st - Jan 1st)

The ridge across the Northern Tasman and southern Coral Sea will weaken later this week which will lead to a gradual decline in surf size though the weekend.

Saturday morning will see the biggest waves with peaky 2-3ft surf in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller 2ft surf across the Mid North Coast. Expect this easterly swell to ease further into the afternoon and through Sunday.

The local NE airstream across the Mid North Coast may also generate some windswell for this region to arrest the otherwise regional easing trend, but quality won’t be high.

Unfortunately, northerly winds are expected across all coasts this weekend. They’ll be strongest in the south (i.e. Mid North Coast) and lighter in the north, of which SE Qld may see isolated regions of NW winds for a brief period at dawn. But in general it’s not looking overly favourable on the surface. 

Next week (Jan 2nd onwards)

There’s nothing significant standout out in the long term outlook. 

However, we have several indicators pointing towards a resumption of short to mid range easterly to even north-easterly swell. 

First of all, the Coral Sea is expected to remain rather unstable with  a complex troughy synoptic pattern across the region. Although there’s nothing significant showing on the models right now, many of the essential atmospheric ingredients are certainly there for a last minute model upgrade and an associated punchy local swell. I'll be watching this region like a hawk over the coming model run updates.

Additionally, the monsoon is passing across Northern Australia right now and this is expected to increased probability for tropical depressions and cyclones across our northern and eastern swell windows for the next couple of weeks.

The models are already suggesting some activity out near Fiji and Samoa from this weekend onwards (though it’s too far out to tell if it’ll be favourable for swell production), and also across the northern Coral Sea, so at least we have some areas to pinpoint in Wednesday’s notes.