South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 19th December)

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Best Days: Tues: fun mix of swells at most beaches with early light winds. Wed: brief period of light winds ahead of the southerly change in Northern NSW. N'ly winds may spoil the surf in SE Qld. Watch the comments below for the timing. Thurs/Fri: fun waves at outer points. Sat/Sun: good E'ly swell with mainly light winds. Mon/Tues: good waves across the points as E/SE swells rebuild.

Recap: As expected, Saturday delivered little options under a freshening northerly breeze and a small residual trade swell. A gusty southerly change pushed up the coast on Sunday, offering a period of NW tending W’ly winds ahead of it, and small bumpy outer points in the late afternoon. A combination of short range SE swell, easing S’ly swell and small mid range E'ly swell is generating fun 2-3ft surf about SE Qld’s and Far Northern NSW’s outer points today, with bigger leftover S/SE swell in Northern NSW though more wind affected thanks to a southerly breeze. Winds are lighter across the Mid North Coast. 

 Fun afternoon lines at Snapper

 Good arvo options at The Pass

 The crowd! The crowd!

This week (Dec 20th - 23rd)

A second pulse of southerly groundswell moved up the Southern NSW coast today and it should fill into Northern NSW overnight. It wasn’t any bigger than the short range south swell we saw Sunday, but it’s of better quality (due to the longer period) and should therefore respond a little better to the various semi-exposed points. South facing beaches south of Byron should see very inconsistent 3-4ft sets from this source in the morning, with smaller waves elsewhere. Size will probably ease into the afternoon.

Also in the mix on Tuesday will be a small, persistent - and now very slowly building - E’ly swell from the recent tropical depression out near Fiji which was discussed last week. This should keep much of the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts humming with inconsistent 2-3ft surf (a little smaller running down the points). 

The Coral Sea ridge that generated the short range swell late yesterday and today is now weakening and therefore so too will the associated swell energy into Tuesday.

The relaxation of the Coral Sea ridge should bring about a period of light winds in most areas on Tuesday morning, ahead of a freshening NE breeze into the afternoon, strongest across the Mid North Coast. So aim for the early session for the best waves.

A shallow southerly change will move up the Northern NSW coast on Wednesday. It’s hard to pin down the timing on this change as slow moving systems are a little unreliable in the way they are modelled, but nevertheless the general break down is likely to see southerlies into the Mid North Coast through the morning, and the Far North Coast mid-late afternoon, and then SE Qld coasts overnight. So, we can expect northerly winds to create a few problems north of the border on Wednesday - and also just south of the border at times - but there’s likely to be a period ahead of the change where winds are light, and this will be your best time to capitalise on. I'll comment below on Wednesday as local observations help to firm up the timing.

As for surf, we’ll see much smaller leftover S’ly swell (in Northern NSW) by this time and a steady E’ly swell in the 2-3ft range at most open beaches. The source of the trade swell is such that we should see a uniform coverage of size across most beaches; aside form local magnetic properties, there’s no reason to favour the Sunshine Coast in the size department from this system (as we do for more closely sourced east swells).

The dynamics of the tropical system near Fiji have move around a little since Friday’s model runs. This system is expected to reach maturity around Wednesday or Thursday, which means we’ll probably see a peak in size around Saturday or Sunday - though the distant source will keep a lid on wave heights. 

Prior to this, we’ll see steady surf from the east every day, so you’ll just have to work around the local winds.

And this is great news for SE Qld with a fresh ridge expected to push S/SE winds across the region through Thursday and Friday, providing good options about the outer points. We may also see a small contribution of short range SE swell in the mix. Most beaches should see size around the 3ft mark these days, with slightly smaller surf running down the points (expect smaller surf at protected points like Noosa).

Across Northern NSW, Thursday will be slightly wind affected from the S/SE (though early SW winds are possible in a few regions) but it’ll ease during the day. Friday should reveal light variable winds and sea breezes, with just a lingering SW tending SE breeze north of Ballina. Surf size should be about the same as SE Qld, around 3ft at open beaches. 

This weekend (Dec 24th - 25th)

Looks like a fun weekend of waves, with the east swell expected to reach a broad plateau across open beaches, somewhere between 3ft and maybe 3-4ft if we’re lucky. Set waves will be a little inconsistent at times but the swell should be well defined. 

The moderate Coral Sea ridge from Thursday and Friday is expected to weaken, though maintain a troughy pattern between the mainland and New Caledonia on Saturday (in fact a new ridge is expected to build during Sunday, which will renew short range E/SE swell). 

So overall, winds should be light to moderate onshore with variable periods through the mornings. On the balance it looks like a typical summer pattern, well worth your attention at any open beach which should assist in spreading the crowds around.

Next week (Dec 26th onwards)

A strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea is expected to renew short range E/SE swell through Monday and Tuesday, with a focus across the Sunehins Coast for the most size (owing to its proximity to the fetch). 

We’re looking at up to 3-5ft at open beaches in this region with good waves across the points, and slightly smaller surf as you head south - around 4ft across the Gold and Tweed Coasts, then marginally smaller surf as you head south of Byron and Ballina. Local winds will favour the points during this period.

Looking further ahead - the extended model runs are also capturing a possible tropical system beat Vanuatu over thew weekend and early next week which should help to anchor in our surf potential for the following week.

So, all in all it’s looking like an extended run of super fun surf for quite some time!

See you on Wednesday.