South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd August)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri/Sat: strong S/SE swells with S'ly gales, best suited to protected points. Get yr paddling arms on! Sun: renewal of strong S/SE groundswell with light variable winds. Mon: easing S/SE swell with light offshore winds. 

Recap: Tuesday delievered tiny residual swells across SE Qld with small, fading south swell south of Byron. Today we’ve seen some wild conditions across the Mid North Coast thanks to a developing low pressure system, with southerly winds gusting 49kts at Coffs Harbour a short time ago. However, as discussed on Monday’s notes, winds are westerly to the north of the low’s axis, which appears to be somewhere between Coffs and Yamba (the latter of which still has fresh W’ly winds). As such, with the low positioned a hundred-odd kilometres further south than Monday’s models suggested (I wrote "it appears the axis will lie somewhere between Yamba and Ballina”), the focus of the biggest waves is also a little further south. Ballina has seen an increase in size late this afternoon with 3-4ft sets and not much happening north of here - however surf size is maxing across the Mid North Coast with stormy 6-8ft sets under southerly gales. Therefore, there’s probably a region (somewhere around Yamba?) that’s seeing larger 4-6ft surf with fresh westerly winds, though this had yet to be verified at the time these notes were prepared.

This week (Thursday 4th - Friday 5th August)

Thursday is all about the strength of the southerly wind: we’re looking at 30-40kts+ at exposed coasts, and 20-30kts elsewhere as the low tracks north of the border.

Some northern locations - such as the Sunshine Coast, and to a much lesser extent the Gold Coast - may see a brief period of SW winds close to dawn but shortly after that we’ll kick off a blustery day out of the south.

Surf size will increase rapidly in the wake of the low, originating from several sources, the most prominent being the short range S/SE fetch around the immediate low. We’re looking at very large stormy waves for south facing beaches in Northern NSW (8-10ft or so), with even the Gold and Sunshine Coast’s open beaches picking up a lot of size by the afternoon - probably somewhere around 4-6ft across the outer points, with larger surf at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches upwards of 6ft+. A peak in size is expected through the afternoon, with smaller surf in the morning - most evident across SE Qld which will see a later onset of building swells compared to southern locations (which should already be quite sizeable from dawn).

Obviously, under these winds there’ll only be a handful of protected locations that will be surfable, and they’ll be smaller in size owing to the strong southerly component in the swell direction. As such keep in mind that sheltered inner points such as Noosa will be a fraction of the size of the exposed stretches. 

On Friday, winds should ease from gale-to-storm-force, to strong-to-gale-force S/SE, and although we’ll see the short range swell source ease back, there’ll be plenty of underlying S/SE swell (from a supporting ridge across the western Tasman), and a small low developing off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island today. This will create a tertiary SE swell though to be honest it’ll be hard to discern within the mix.

As such we’re looking at a similar day only suited to protected points, where SE Qld will undoubtable fare the best. Exposed south facing beaches south of Byron could still very well be somewhere north of 6ft and as high as 8ft, but north of the border surf size should settle down to 5-6ft at exposed south facing beaches in SE Qld, and 4-5ft across the outer points.

Again, thanks to the strong southerly component in the swell direction we’ll be looking at small clean surf across the sheltered inner points such as Noosa. 

This weekend (Saturday 6th - Sunday 7th August)

We’ve got plenty of waves due this weekend.

Surf size and wind strength will ease steadily through Saturday, though with the ridge still persisting about the coastal margin - albeit in a weakened state - we’ll remain under a southerly regime (maybe SW early). This means that protected locations will continue to provide the best surf, and the outer SE Qld points should be the pick of the coast. 

Expect 5-6ft+ surf across south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller elsewhere) in the morning, easing during the day, with 3-4ft surf across the SE Qld outer points and beaches, up to 4-5ft at exposed northern ends (though they’ll be wind affected still). Smaller surf will then prevail into the afternoon.

On Sunday, a new S/SE groundswell is expected to move into the region, originating from a polar low that’s modelled to track in a straight meridional alignment through the central/eastern lower Tasman Sea later Thursday.

The models have slowed down its forward speed and slightly reigned in the fetch strength since Monday’s model runs, but it’s still on track to provide a solid day of surf across Northern NSW in the 5-6ft range at south facing beaches, with 3-5ft surf at remaining open beaches and smaller waves across protected southern ends. 

In SE Qld, this swell won’t result in quite the same amount of size however there should still be more than enough to get the outer points up and running with sets around 3ft+. Exposed northern ends and south facing beaches north of the border will see bigger waves in the 3-5ft range. The only point of concern here is the timing of this swell; it may not be in the water at first light. So if you're looking to capitalise on this north of thr border (especially trhe Sunshine Coast) then aim for an afternoon paddle. I'll firm up the timing specifics in Friday's notes. 

Fortunately, Sunday’s conditions are looking pretty good overall with mainly light variable winds. Open stretches (esp. in Northern NSW) are likely to retain some lumpiness from the previous few days of southerlies, but the points should all iron out the bumps reasonably well. 

Either way - there’s plenty of surf on the way for the weekend. 

Next week (Monday 8th August onwards)

Lots of models manoeuvrings over the last few days, with a few interesting systems popping up for next week. 

Monday's looking very good with light offshore winds and slowly easing S/SE swell across the region. It'll become small across SE Qld during the day but Northern NSW should still be quite solid, especially in the morning. 

Looking further ahead, and at this stage the touted tropical developments in our eastern swell window have been scaled back - we may see a small east swell arriving later next week and into the weekend, but it’s not looking particularly significant at this stage. 

Otherwise, there’s now a suggestion for a small to moderate SE swell off another meridionally aligned polar low through the Tasman Sea (arriving across Northern NSW mid-week), that could evolve into a slow moving trough with potential for a long lived source of SE swell through the second half of the week and next weekend too.

More on that in Friday’s update.