South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 14th October)

Best Days: Thurs: small E/SE swell on the Mid North Coast. Fri: small E/SE swell building on the Far North and SE Qld coasts. Sat thru' mid-next week (or later): steady, very slowly building trade swell towards a peak around Tues or Wed. Plenty of fun waves most mornings whilst winds are light.

Recap: A southerly change pushed along the Northern NSW coast on Tuesday, reaching the Mid North Coast early and the Far North Coast late (and reach SE Qld overnight). However wave heights were small and northerly winds ahead of the change created average conditions. Today we’ve seen a continuation of small swells, with mainly onshore winds from the SE, offering the only real rideable options across outer sand bottom points such as the southern Gold Coast. A stalled trough off the North Coast (lingering remnants from yesterday’s change) has whipped up a short range E/SE swell for the Mid North Coast.

This week (Thursday 15th - Friday 16th)

Northern NSW: No major changes for the next few days. The small E/SE swell originating from the trough off the North Coast (mainly aimed at points south of Coffs Harbour) will persist into Thursday morning but ease during the day. But it’s not very large nor very strong, and with average conditions under a light to moderate onshore airstream, there’s not much to get excited about. 

Size will likely ease during the day - early 2-3ft sets in the south, a little smaller in the north (1-2ft+). Winds should be light and variable early morning and this will be the best time to surf.

At the same time, a high in the Tasman Sea will firm up a ridge through the northern Tasman tonight and into Thursday, and this will generate a slightly better E/SE swell for the northern region, padding out Friday with fun waves building into the 2-3ft range by the afternoon (may be a little undersized early morning). Smaller surf is likely south of about Yamba though; note: the models don’t seem to be picking up this swell very well; they maintain smaller surf through Friday. 

A small southerly groundswell is also expected to build through the mix on Thursday and Friday, but no great size or consistency is expected from this source, just a few stray 2ft sets at south swell magnets. 

Local winds are expected to freshen from the NE during Friday but again, we should see light variable winds in the morning, and the strongest afternoon breezes will begin the south (the nor’easter may remain only light to moderate in the Far North). 

Southeast Qld: A continuation of small peaky E’ly surf is expected through Thursday, with light variable winds tending E’ly throughout the day. Nothing great but there’ll be grovellers at the beach breaks if you’re keen.

As mentioned above, the developing ridge across the NorthernTasman Sea on Thursday should kick up a small E/SE swell throughout Friday that should reach 2-3ft at open beaches by the afternoon - it may be a little undersized early morning. Again, light variable winds in the morning should swing to the east and freshen into the afternoon but no major strength is expected.

This weekend (Friday 17th - Saturday 18th)

Northern NSW: I’m still not expecting anything overly special in the surf department this weekend, unless you're inthe Far North. We’re looking at a combination of small lingering S’ly groundswell, and a small tradeswell both days that’ll probably maintain a similar size as per Friday afternoon. 

The trade swell will originate from a broad fetch in and around the Fijian region, encompassing a Tasman high and a Tropical Depression north of Fiji, keeping the fetch just inside our swell window and stationary (which is a positive for swell production, and offsets some of the negatives such as its southern extent and, a little less strength than desireable).

The Far North will see the biggest waves from this source, with sets between 2ft and maybe 3ft (and quite tidally affected) but it’ll be smaller south of about Ballina or Yamba. This size range should hold both days, if anything showing a little stronger on Sunday than Saturday. With no major synoptic pattern across the region we can expect light variable winds in the morning and moderate sea breezes in the afternoon.

Southeast Qld: This small trade swell should supply some fun waves across the beaches this weekend. Fortunately, we’re not expecting any synoptic strength in the winds so we should see clean conditions early with a light variable flow, and moderate afternoon sea breezes that’ll kick up a few bumps here and there. Wave heights should hold in the 2-3ft range across the Gold Coast both days - again, probably showing strongest on Sunday, with possibly a few bigger sets at the Sunshine Coast swell magnets. 

Next week (Monday 19th onwards)

The tropical depression north of Fiji throughout the forecast period will assist in anchoring this ridge across our eastern swell window for some time. As such we’re looking at continual trade swell right through into next week. 

Wave heights are expected to reach a gradual peak through Tuesday, or maybe even Wednesday depending on how the models evolve - this is a little later than Monday’s forecast notes suggested, however the latest model runs are pinching off a mild easterly dip and strengthening it early in the week, which suggests we could see some much better, stronger surf through the middle of the week. But that's a ways off yet.

Right now though, I’m being a little cautious because favourable developments in this swell window are not common at this time of year, and the models have been continually pushing things back to the end of the run for about the last week or so now (and today is no different).

For the moment, it’s likely that Monday and Tuesday will see more consistency in the 3ft range across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, and by Wednesday we could be looking at sets in the 4ft range. Either way, it’s an out-of-season round of fun trade swell that’ll keep everyone busy for a while.

South of Ballina, surf size will be smaller from this trade swell source all week (unless the eastertly dip does indeed strengthen; then we'll have to deal with that seperately). We have a series of intense polar and mid-latitude lows migrating through the Southern Ocean that should supply small levels of southerly swell to exposed swell magnets for much of the week, however no great size is expected. 

There is one storm of note though - a deep low and front south of Tasmania later Saturday and into Sunday, that could kick up some 3ft+ sets at south swell magnets in Northern NSW sometime on Tuesday. I’ll keep a close eye on this and will update with more detail in Friday’s notes.