South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 7th September)

Best Days: Tues: good waves across Northern NSW (small in SE Qld) with a building S/SE swell. Wed/Thurs/Fri: building S/SE and S'ly swells with small surf in SE Qld (peaking Thurs) and better surf across semi-exposed points in Northern NSW. Sat/Sun: building trade swell in SE Qld.

Recap: The vast majority of SE Qld beaches remained very small across the weekend, although south swell magnets raked in some fun leftover waves from the strong southerly swell that pushed up on Friday. The weekend's best surf was found across open south facing beaches south of the border, with variable conditions under a wide range in wind directions and strengths. But in general the mornings offered the best waves. Today we’ve seen a small new S/SE swell fill into the Northern NSW Coast, a precursor to a few more days of swell from this direction. However surf size is still very small in SE Qld. 

This week (Sep 8 - 11)

No major changes to the forecast for this week, as per Friday’s notes.

We’re at the start of an extended run of S/SE swell originating from a strong frontal progression south of New Zealand from late last week through the weekend, which is expected to reach a peak on Wednesday. This swell has already started to fill into Southern NSW today, but wave heights came in slightly under expectations, so I’ve pulled back my estimates from this source for the next two days as they’re all very similar in origin. 

As such, I’m expecting Tuesday to push slowly up into the 3ft+ range at south facing beaches south of Byron during the day (may be a slight delay on this in the early morning), and with winds freshening from the NW in the morning, conditions will be clean at exposed northern ends. Surf size will be smaller at beaches not completely open to the south, and up in SE Qld I’m not expecting much more than an inconsistent 1-1.5ft across most beaches, with a few bigger waves in the 2ft+ range at south swell magnets through the afternoon (they’ll be the only viable option under the NW flow anyway). 

Tuesday's winds will be under the influence of a developing low east of Tasmania from this evening, which is expected to push a front across the coast, resulting in W’ly tending SW winds across Southern NSW. This trend is likely to extended as far north as the Mid North Coast through the afternoon, however we’ll see NW winds ahead of the front and a dead (synoptic) zone just before the frontal boundary, which is expected to push across the North Coast towards the evening. As such, locations north of Coffs but south of the Goldy may see afternoon sea breezes, depending on how strong the NW wind becomes (anything above 15kts often negates the sea breeze prospects). 

Short version: expect funky winds Tuesday afternoon. 

On Wednesday, the S/SE groundswell will bump up a notch thanks to a peak in intensification in the core fetch yesterday, with most open south facing beaches (south of Byron) likely to push up towards 3-5ft by the afternoon (this swell is expected to hold through into Thursday). 

This S/SE swell should slowly build across the SE Qld region, with most beaches increasing from 1-2ft to an inconsistent 2ft+ by the afternoon, with slightly bigger waves at the outer points and bigger surf again at south swell magnets. Confidence isn't high on this swell source though (north of the border) so don't go planning any flexi time just yet.

However, we will also see a secondary south swell push across the Mid North Coast later Wednesday, and it may end up being the dominant swell train by the afternoon, originating from the low developing east of Tasmania Tuesday. It’s expected to track N/NE parallel to the southern NSW coast and will kick up wave heights to 4-6ft by close of business, reaching the Far North Coast overnight. 

Wednesday’s conditions will however be under the influence of a gusty SW tending S/SW airstream (may be W/SW for a period early morning at some locations). So, you’ll have to surf early for the best conditions as exposed spots in Northern NSW will become blown out by the late afternoon. However there should be enough size for small waves inside sheltered southern corners. Just keep in mind that wave heights will probably be a little undersized early morning, at the same time we're expecting the best conditions. 

On Thursday, conditions are looking to be similar to Wednesday although with slightly less wind strength. Both the S’ly and S/SE swells will slowly begin to ease during the day however the early morning should still be quite strong with south facing beaches in Northern NSW somewhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft (much smaller at beaches not open to the south). A few locations should see early W/SW winds but it’ll veer SW and then S/SW throughout the day. Thursday will therefore be best suited to the semi-exposed points. 

In SE Qld, Thursday looks like it’ll be similar to very late Wednesday with inconsistent 2ft+ sets across most open beaches, and bigger sets at the outer points. The region's handful of south swell magnets should see larger surf again, up towards 3ft, maybe 3-4ft at times but it’ll be wind affected. 

At this stage Friday looks like it’ll finish the working week with light variable winds and further easing S’ly and S/SE swell, around 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron, and smaller surf elsewhere (especially up in SE Qld). So, still plenty of leftover options but certainly nowhere near as much size as mid-week. 

This weekend (Sep 12 - 13)

The mid-late week combo of S’ly and S/SE swells will continue to ease into Saturday, but we’ll see some new energy originating from a series of strong but poorly-aligned fronts in the Southern Ocean (well below the Tasman Sea) on Wednesday and Thursday. 

In fact, I’ll also be keeping my eye in further model runs on the leading front from this progression near New Zealand, which is currently (on Friday) expected to intensify as it tracks along NZ’s West Coast. At the moment it’s looking like we’ll see this system feed into a developing ridge through the Southern Coral Sea which should build a small trade swell for SE Qld across the weekend (somewhere in the 2-3ft range, maybe some bigger sets on the Sunny Coast) but south of Byron we’ll see smaller surf from this source and therefore we’ll also be relying on some of the small refracted southerly swell from the Southern Ocean. At this stage set waves will probably reach 2-3ft at exposed south swell magnets too.

We may see model updates pinch the fetch (near NZ on Friday) off as a small low which would then increase the potential for a bigger SE swell sometime Sunday or Monday. It's only a low chance right now but I thought I’d flag the possibility early.

As for local winds, we’re looking at SE winds (light SW early) in SE Qld, thanks to the ridge across the Coral Sea, but in the southern regions a high pressure system will swing the winds around to the north (most likely Sunday). So there’s quite a bit of variability in the weekend outlook right now - I’ll have a much clearer picture on Wednesday but for now it looks like there’ll be small waves across most regions. 

Next week (Sep 14 onwards)

Nothing major for next week at this stage, only the remote chance for that system off NZ’s west coast Friday to generate some SE swell for early next week, supplemented by some moderate trade activity across the Southern Coral Sea and SW Pacific basins. Other than that there are no major systems on the long term radar. Let’s see how things are looking Wednesday.